East Carolina vs. Charlotte: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ECUTeam statsCLT
- Q4 10:17ECUWinston Wright Jr. 94 Yd Kickoff Return (Noah Perez Kick)24–55
- Q4 10:31CLTStone Handy 53 Yd Interception Return (Stephen Rusnak Kick)17–55
- Q4 12:00CLTHahsaun Wilson 65 Yd Run (Stephen Rusnak Kick)17–48
- Q4 14:53CLTHahsaun Wilson 23 Yd Run (Stephen Rusnak Kick)17–41
- Q3 4:00CLTStephen Rusnak 28 Yd Field Goal 17–34
- Q3 12:26ECULondon Montgomery 48 Yd Run (Noah Perez Kick)17–31
- Q2 1:40CLTCartevious Norton 62 Yd Run (Stephen Rusnak Kick)10–31
- Q2 3:24CLTHahsaun Wilson 1 Yd Run (Stephen Rusnak Kick)10–24
- Q2 8:40CLTStephen Rusnak 35 Yd Field Goal 10–17
- Q2 12:24ECUTyler Savage 13 Yd pass from Jake Garcia (Noah Perez Kick)10–14
- Q1 0:45ECUNoah Perez 38 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q1 3:38CLTDeshawn Purdie 1 Yd Run (Stephen Rusnak Kick)0–14
- Q1 10:18CLTCartevious Norton 11 Yd Run (Stephen Rusnak Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassJake Garcia 6/8, 111 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushLondon Montgomery 3 CAR, 56 YDS, 1 TD
- RecChase Sowell 4 REC, 82 YDS
- PassDeshawn Purdie 13/22, 206 YDS
- RushHahsaun Wilson 15 CAR, 164 YDS, 3 TD
- RecJairus Mack 3 REC, 81 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCLT up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 840 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 3:24CLT +20%
Hahsaun Wilson run for 1 yd for a TD (Stephen Rusnak KICK)
- Q2 12:24ECU +20%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Tyler Savage for 13 yds for a TD (Noah Perez KICK)
- Q1 3:38CLT +19%
Deshawn Purdie run for 1 yd for a TD (Stephen Rusnak KICK)
- Q1 10:18CLT +17%
Cartevious Norton run for 11 yds for a TD (Stephen Rusnak KICK)
- Q3 12:26ECU +13%
London Montgomery run for 48 yds for a TD (Noah Perez KICK)
- Q2 1:40CLT +13%
Cartevious Norton run for 62 yds for a TD (Stephen Rusnak KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of East Carolina vs. Charlotte?
East Carolina 24, Charlotte 55.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ECU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ECU | CLT | |
|---|---|---|
| 343 | Total yards | 517 |
| 195 | Passing yards | 206 |
| 148 | Rushing yards | 311 |
| 18 | First downs | 26 |
| 3-12 | 3rd down | 5-12 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 17/37 | Comp/Att | 13/22 |
| 5.3 | Yards per pass | 9.4 |
| 5.9 | Yards per rush | 6.0 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 11-96 | Penalties | 13-103 |
| 19:06 | Possession | 40:54 |
Costliest call
Q2 1:59 ECU punt on 4th & 2 at ECU 33. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.25 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 10:17ECUWinston Wright Jr. 94 Yd Kickoff Return (Noah Perez Kick)24–55
- Q4 10:31CLTStone Handy 53 Yd Interception Return (Stephen Rusnak Kick)17–55
- Q4 12:00CLTHahsaun Wilson 65 Yd Run (Stephen Rusnak Kick)17–48
- Q4 14:53CLTHahsaun Wilson 23 Yd Run (Stephen Rusnak Kick)17–41
- Q3 4:00CLTStephen Rusnak 28 Yd Field Goal 17–34
- Q3 12:26ECULondon Montgomery 48 Yd Run (Noah Perez Kick)17–31
- Q2 1:40CLTCartevious Norton 62 Yd Run (Stephen Rusnak Kick)10–31
- Q2 3:24CLTHahsaun Wilson 1 Yd Run (Stephen Rusnak Kick)10–24
- Q2 8:40CLTStephen Rusnak 35 Yd Field Goal 10–17
- Q2 12:24ECUTyler Savage 13 Yd pass from Jake Garcia (Noah Perez Kick)10–14
- Q1 0:45ECUNoah Perez 38 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q1 3:38CLTDeshawn Purdie 1 Yd Run (Stephen Rusnak Kick)0–14
- Q1 10:18CLTCartevious Norton 11 Yd Run (Stephen Rusnak Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CLT Elo 1128, ECU Elo 1423 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CLT +9.4 (28% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#4 of 120 in 2024 by biggest miss · #48 of 129 in 2024 by longest odds.
The 2024 upset archive →| ECU | CLT | |
|---|---|---|
| -0.5 (#69) | CORE overall | -13.1 (#110) |
| +1 / +1 | offense / defense | -4 / +9 |
| 2.34 | points / drive | 1.69 |
| 2.35 | allowed / drive | 2.86 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| -2 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →