Marshall vs. Louisiana: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MRSHTeam statsUL
- Q4 2:03MRSHJordan Houston 9 Yd Run (Rece Verhoff Kick)31–3
- Q3 7:43MRSHBralon Brown 20 Yd pass from Braylon Braxton (Rece Verhoff Kick)24–3
- Q2 2:47MRSHEthan Payne 15 Yd Run (Rece Verhoff Kick)17–3
- Q2 7:54MRSHRece Verhoff 32 Yd Field Goal 10–3
- Q1 4:04MRSHTychaun Chapman 37 Yd pass from Braylon Braxton (Rece Verhoff Kick)7–3
- Q1 6:42ULKenneth Almendares 40 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UL played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and MRSH did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.3 vs 3rd & 6.3
- PassBraylon Braxton 18/26, 193 YDS, 2 TD
- RushJordan Houston 17 CAR, 117 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTychaun Chapman 8 REC, 86 YDS, 1 TD
- PassChandler Fields 4/8, 104 YDS
- RushZylan Perry 6 CAR, 25 YDS
- RecLance LeGendre 4 REC, 81 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMRSH up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 668 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 2:47MRSH +20%
Ethan Payne run for 15 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)
- Q1 4:04MRSH +18%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Tychaun Chapman for 37 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)
- Q2 7:54MRSH +10%
Rece Verhoff 32 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 7:43MRSH +9%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Bralon Brown for 20 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)
- Q1 6:42UL +7%
Kenneth Almendares 40 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Marshall vs. Louisiana?
Marshall 31, Louisiana 3.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UL, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MRSH | UL | |
|---|---|---|
| 410 | Total yards | 255 |
| 193 | Passing yards | 199 |
| 217 | Rushing yards | 56 |
| 25 | First downs | 11 |
| 7-15 | 3rd down | 2-16 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 3-6 |
| 18/26 | Comp/Att | 13/32 |
| 7.4 | Yards per pass | 6.2 |
| 4.9 | Yards per rush | 2.0 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 6-60 | Penalties | 9-98 |
| 33:56 | Possession | 26:04 |
Costliest call
Q4 7:04 UL go for it on 4th & 10 at MRSH 10. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.63 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:03MRSHJordan Houston 9 Yd Run (Rece Verhoff Kick)31–3
- Q3 7:43MRSHBralon Brown 20 Yd pass from Braylon Braxton (Rece Verhoff Kick)24–3
- Q2 2:47MRSHEthan Payne 15 Yd Run (Rece Verhoff Kick)17–3
- Q2 7:54MRSHRece Verhoff 32 Yd Field Goal 10–3
- Q1 4:04MRSHTychaun Chapman 37 Yd pass from Braylon Braxton (Rece Verhoff Kick)7–3
- Q1 6:42ULKenneth Almendares 40 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UL Elo 1640, MRSH Elo 1517 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UL -7.3 (70% to win) — 2.3 points clear of UL's market line of -5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#17 of 120 in 2024 by biggest miss · #75 of 129 in 2024 by longest odds.
The 2024 upset archive →| MRSH | UL | |
|---|---|---|
| +3.3 (#54) | CORE overall | -0.6 (#70) |
| +2 / -1 | offense / defense | +4 / +4 |
| 2.46 | points / drive | 3.01 |
| 2.08 | allowed / drive | 2.40 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 19% |
| -4 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →