UNLV vs. Houston: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UNLVTeam statsHOU
- Q4 1:00HOUJoseph Manjack IV 2 Yd pass from Ui Ale (Joseph Kim Kick)27–7
- Q4 5:00UNLVCaden Chittenden 34 Yd Field Goal 27–0
- Q3 5:23UNLVJalen Catalon 36 Yd Interception Return (Caden Chittenden Kick)24–0
- Q3 9:49UNLVCaden Chittenden 40 Yd Field Goal 17–0
- Q2 12:49UNLVJacob De Jesus 24 Yd pass from Matthew Sluka (Caden Chittenden Kick)14–0
- Q1 8:10UNLVJacob De Jesus 13 Yd pass from Matthew Sluka (Caden Chittenden Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- HOU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and UNLV did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.8 vs 3rd & 5.9
- PassMatthew Sluka 6/13, 71 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushMichael Allen 10 CAR, 65 YDS
- RecJaden Bradley 2 REC, 60 YDS
- PassDonovan Smith 15/30, 135 YDS, 2 INT
- RushParker Jenkins 2 CAR, 17 YDS
- RecMekhi Mews 3 REC, 57 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUNLV up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 552 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 8:10UNLV +18%
Matthew Sluka pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 13 yds for a TD (Caden Chittenden KICK)
- Q2 12:49UNLV +15%
Matthew Sluka pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 24 yds for a TD (Caden Chittenden KICK)
- Q3 9:49UNLV +8%
Caden Chittenden 40 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of UNLV vs. Houston?
UNLV 27, Houston 7.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked HOU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UNLV | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 308 | Total yards | 247 |
| 113 | Passing yards | 209 |
| 195 | Rushing yards | 38 |
| 14 | First downs | 14 |
| 6-15 | 3rd down | 2-15 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 7/14 | Comp/Att | 22/38 |
| 8.1 | Yards per pass | 5.5 |
| 4.1 | Yards per rush | 1.5 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 6-48 | Penalties | 10-74 |
| 31:27 | Possession | 28:33 |
Costliest call
Q4 7:58 UNLV punt on 4th & 5 at HOU 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.11 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:00HOUJoseph Manjack IV 2 Yd pass from Ui Ale (Joseph Kim Kick)27–7
- Q4 5:00UNLVCaden Chittenden 34 Yd Field Goal 27–0
- Q3 5:23UNLVJalen Catalon 36 Yd Interception Return (Caden Chittenden Kick)24–0
- Q3 9:49UNLVCaden Chittenden 40 Yd Field Goal 17–0
- Q2 12:49UNLVJacob De Jesus 24 Yd pass from Matthew Sluka (Caden Chittenden Kick)14–0
- Q1 8:10UNLVJacob De Jesus 13 Yd pass from Matthew Sluka (Caden Chittenden Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (HOU Elo 1447, UNLV Elo 1496 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects HOU -0.4 (52% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#54 of 120 in 2024 by biggest miss · #107 of 129 in 2024 by longest odds.
The 2024 upset archive →| UNLV | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| +7.5 (#40) | CORE overall | -7.9 (#92) |
| -2 / -9 | offense / defense | -12 / -4 |
| 2.61 | points / drive | 1.13 |
| 1.75 | allowed / drive | 1.89 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| -7 | pass over expected | -9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →