Utah vs. UCF: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UTAHTeam statsUCF
- Q4 0:19UCFRJ Harvey 6 Yd pass from EJ Colson (Grant Reddick Kick)28–14
- Q4 3:34UTAHSmith Snowden 13 Yd Interception Return (Trey Coleman Kick)28–7
- Q4 14:46UTAHLanden King 15 Yd pass from Luke Bottari (Luke Bottari Pass to Micah Bernard for Two-Point Conversion)21–7
- Q2 1:17UTAHTrey Coleman 24 Yd Field Goal 13–7
- Q2 3:25UCFRJ Harvey 5 Yd Run (Grant Reddick Kick)10–7
- Q2 7:45UTAHZemaiah Vaughn 60 Yd Interception Return (Trey Coleman Kick)10–0
- Q1 6:52UTAHCole Becker 37 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassLuke Bottari 13/20, 111 YDS, 1 TD
- RushMicah Bernard 22 CAR, 87 YDS
- RecZacharyus Williams 6 REC, 72 YDS
- PassDylan Rizk 10/26, 107 YDS, 1 INT
- RushRJ Harvey 20 CAR, 119 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKobe Hudson 7 REC, 79 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUTAH up 6 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,660 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 3:25UCF +22%
RJ Harvey run for 5 yds for a TD (Grant Reddick KICK)
- Q2 7:45UTAH +21%
Dylan Rizk pass intercepted Zemaiah Vaughn return for 60 yds for a TD (Trey Coleman KICK)
- Q4 14:46UTAH +19%
Luke Bottari pass complete to Landen King for 15 yds for a TD (Luke Bottari pass to Micah Bernard for Two-Point Conversion)
- Q2 1:17UTAH +10%
Trey Coleman 24 yd FG GOOD
- Q1 6:52UTAH +9%
Cole Becker 37 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 4:50UTAH +8%
Zacharyus Williams run for 11 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST down
FAQ
What was the final score of Utah vs. UCF?
Utah 28, UCF 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UCF, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UTAH | UCF | |
|---|---|---|
| 196 | Total yards | 379 |
| 111 | Passing yards | 206 |
| 85 | Rushing yards | 173 |
| 11 | First downs | 22 |
| 3-13 | 3rd down | 6-18 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 2-5 |
| 13/20 | Comp/Att | 20/41 |
| 5.6 | Yards per pass | 5.0 |
| 2.7 | Yards per rush | 3.9 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 8-70 | Penalties | 7-57 |
| 27:34 | Possession | 32:26 |
Costliest call
Q4 12:31 UCF go for it on 4th & 8 at UTAH 27. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.60 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:19UCFRJ Harvey 6 Yd pass from EJ Colson (Grant Reddick Kick)28–14
- Q4 3:34UTAHSmith Snowden 13 Yd Interception Return (Trey Coleman Kick)28–7
- Q4 14:46UTAHLanden King 15 Yd pass from Luke Bottari (Luke Bottari Pass to Micah Bernard for Two-Point Conversion)21–7
- Q2 1:17UTAHTrey Coleman 24 Yd Field Goal 13–7
- Q2 3:25UCFRJ Harvey 5 Yd Run (Grant Reddick Kick)10–7
- Q2 7:45UTAHZemaiah Vaughn 60 Yd Interception Return (Trey Coleman Kick)10–0
- Q1 6:52UTAHCole Becker 37 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UCF Elo 1596, UTAH Elo 1524 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UCF -5.3 (65% to win) — 4.7 points clear of UTAH's market line of -10. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#45 of 120 in 2024 by biggest miss · #47 of 129 in 2024 by longest odds.
The 2024 upset archive →| UTAH | UCF | |
|---|---|---|
| +2.3 (#59) | CORE overall | +11.2 (#32) |
| -12 / -14 | offense / defense | +9 / -2 |
| 1.44 | points / drive | 2.29 |
| 1.55 | allowed / drive | 2.45 |
| 33% | three-and-outs | 17% |
| +0 | pass over expected | -11 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →