#2Micah Bernard

RB·Utah·2024

Micah Bernard is a Featured Back for Utah. Micah's 2024 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 230 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Micah Bernard's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Rushing

1009 Rush yards4 Rush TD197 Carries5.1 Yards/carry

Receiving

30 Receptions150 Rec yards2 Rec TD5.0 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs RB peers

Efficiency0
Volume87
Explosiveness42
Consistency0
Receiving54

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency0th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.34 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.49 EPA/play in Wk 7 vs Arizona State (SP+ 9).

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsSouthern Utah	W49-0	—	5	33	6.6	0	—	—	—	0.24
2	vsBaylor	W23-12	8.4	19	118	6.2	0	2	5	1	0.15
3	@Utah State	W38-21	-10.4	17	123	7.2	1	2	3	0	0.19
4	@Oklahoma State	W22-19	-2.6	25	182	7.3	0	2	-2	0	0.12
5	vsArizona	L10-23	-2.8	16	91	5.7	0	—	—	—	0.18
7	@Arizona State	L19-27	9.4	21	129	6.1	1	5	61	0	0.49
8	vsTCU	L7-13	10.8	13	55	4.2	0	2	3	0	-0.08
9	@Houston	L14-17	-8.2	14	51	3.6	1	4	25	0	-0.00
11	vsBYU	L21-22	15.3	17	78	4.6	0	2	6	1	-0.11
12	@Colorado	L24-49	8.1	11	20	1.8	0	6	22	0	-0.23
13	vsIowa State	L28-31	10.3	17	42	2.5	1	4	26	0	-0.11
14	@UCF	W28-14	2.8	22	87	4.0	0	1	1	0	-0.13

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

30.4%

Passing plays

9.1%

Rushing plays

51.6%

Standard downs

33.7%

Passing downs

24.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.06
Passing downs: 0.10
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.13 / 0.06

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).