Coastal Carolina vs. Jacksonville State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CCUTeam statsJXST
- Q4 1:06JXSTTre Stewart 38 Yd Run (Garrison Rippa Kick)55–27
- Q4 2:18CCUSenika McKie 9 Yd pass from Noah Kim (Kade Hensley Kick)55–20
- Q4 8:03JXSTMichael Pettway 92 Yd pass from Tyler Huff (Garrison Rippa Kick)48–20
- Q4 8:34CCUJameson Tucker 37 Yd pass from Ethan Vasko (Kade Hensley Kick)48–13
- Q4 13:10JXSTGarrison Rippa 26 Yd Field Goal 41–13
- Q3 3:13CCUKade Hensley 39 Yd Field Goal 41–10
- Q3 9:11CCUBraydon Bennett 2 Yd Run (Kade Hensley Kick)38–10
- Q2 0:19JXSTCole Fuller 1 Yd Run (Garrison Rippa Kick)31–10
- Q2 2:20CCUBraydon Bennett 2 Yd Run (Kade Hensley Kick)31–3
- Q2 11:48CCUEthan Vasko 4 Yd Run (Kade Hensley Kick)24–3
- Q1 1:01CCUClev Lubin 17 Yd Fumble Return (Kade Hensley Kick)17–3
- Q1 1:12CCUTray Taylor 36 Yd pass from Ethan Vasko (Kade Hensley Kick)10–3
- Q1 5:50JXSTGarrison Rippa 49 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 11:06CCUKade Hensley 25 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassEthan Vasko 12/19, 249 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushJa'Vin Simpkins 12 CAR, 80 YDS
- RecTray Taylor 3 REC, 98 YDS, 1 TD
- PassTyler Huff 7/14, 173 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushTre Stewart 4 CAR, 62 YDS, 1 TD
- RecMichael Pettway 1 REC, 92 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCCU up 31 entering the 4th quarter. Across 342 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 1:12CCU +21%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Tray Taylor for 36 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK)
- Q1 1:01CCU +16%
Clev Lubin 17 Yd Fumble Return (Kade Hensley Kick)
- Q2 11:48CCU +13%
Ethan Vasko run for 4 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK)
- Q1 11:06CCU +8%
Kade Hensley 25 yd FG GOOD
- Q1 5:50JXST +8%
Garrison Rippa 49 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 2:20CCU +6%
Braydon Bennett run for 2 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Coastal Carolina vs. Jacksonville State?
Coastal Carolina 55, Jacksonville State 27.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked JXST, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| CCU | JXST | |
|---|---|---|
| 552 | Total yards | 357 |
| 258 | Passing yards | 234 |
| 294 | Rushing yards | 123 |
| 25 | First downs | 16 |
| 5-13 | 3rd down | 1-10 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 13/20 | Comp/Att | 14/27 |
| 12.9 | Yards per pass | 8.7 |
| 5.2 | Yards per rush | 4.1 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 5-35 | Penalties | 7-59 |
| 39:51 | Possession | 20:09 |
Costliest call
Q3 5:57 CCU punt on 4th & 1 at JXST 42. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.94 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:06JXSTTre Stewart 38 Yd Run (Garrison Rippa Kick)55–27
- Q4 2:18CCUSenika McKie 9 Yd pass from Noah Kim (Kade Hensley Kick)55–20
- Q4 8:03JXSTMichael Pettway 92 Yd pass from Tyler Huff (Garrison Rippa Kick)48–20
- Q4 8:34CCUJameson Tucker 37 Yd pass from Ethan Vasko (Kade Hensley Kick)48–13
- Q4 13:10JXSTGarrison Rippa 26 Yd Field Goal 41–13
- Q3 3:13CCUKade Hensley 39 Yd Field Goal 41–10
- Q3 9:11CCUBraydon Bennett 2 Yd Run (Kade Hensley Kick)38–10
- Q2 0:19JXSTCole Fuller 1 Yd Run (Garrison Rippa Kick)31–10
- Q2 2:20CCUBraydon Bennett 2 Yd Run (Kade Hensley Kick)31–3
- Q2 11:48CCUEthan Vasko 4 Yd Run (Kade Hensley Kick)24–3
- Q1 1:01CCUClev Lubin 17 Yd Fumble Return (Kade Hensley Kick)17–3
- Q1 1:12CCUTray Taylor 36 Yd pass from Ethan Vasko (Kade Hensley Kick)10–3
- Q1 5:50JXSTGarrison Rippa 49 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 11:06CCUKade Hensley 25 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (JXST Elo 1538, CCU Elo 1448 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects JXST -6 (67% to win) — 2.5 points clear of JXST's market line of -3.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#18 of 120 in 2024 by biggest miss · #84 of 129 in 2024 by longest odds.
The 2024 upset archive →| CCU | JXST | |
|---|---|---|
| -11.9 (#106) | CORE overall | -0.9 (#73) |
| -3 / +9 | offense / defense | +4 / +5 |
| 2.27 | points / drive | 2.99 |
| 2.56 | allowed / drive | 2.15 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| -5 | pass over expected | -12 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →