Alabama vs. Oklahoma: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ALATeam statsOU
- Q3 8:05OUKip Lewis 49 Yd Interception Return (Zach Schmit Kick)3–24
- Q3 11:37OUXavier Robinson 1 Yd Run (Zach Schmit Kick)3–17
- Q2 0:37OUXavier Robinson 18 Yd Run (Zach Schmit Kick)3–10
- Q2 8:14OUZach Schmit 29 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 3:23ALAGraham Nicholson 22 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- ALA played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and OU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.7 vs 3rd & 4.1
- PassJalen Milroe 11/26, 164 YDS, 3 INT
- RushJam Miller 12 CAR, 45 YDS
- RecGermie Bernard 4 REC, 60 YDS
- PassJackson Arnold 9/11, 68 YDS
- RushJackson Arnold 25 CAR, 131 YDS
- RecBauer Sharp 2 REC, 21 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsOU up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 668 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 11:37OU +32%
Xavier Robinson run for 1 yd for a TD (Zach Schmit KICK)
- Q2 0:37OU +23%
Xavier Robinson run for 18 yds for a TD (Zach Schmit KICK)
- Q3 8:05OU +16%
Kip Lewis 49 Yd Interception Return (Zach Schmit Kick)
- Q2 8:14OU +7%
Zach Schmit 29 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 0:30ALA +5%
Alabama Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the ALA 15
FAQ
What was the final score of Alabama vs. Oklahoma?
Alabama 3, Oklahoma 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ALA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ALA | OU | |
|---|---|---|
| 234 | Total yards | 325 |
| 164 | Passing yards | 68 |
| 70 | Rushing yards | 257 |
| 13 | First downs | 18 |
| 7-14 | 3rd down | 7-15 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 11/27 | Comp/Att | 9/12 |
| 6.1 | Yards per pass | 5.7 |
| 2.3 | Yards per rush | 5.1 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 4-30 | Penalties | 4-20 |
| 25:49 | Possession | 34:11 |
Costliest call
Q1 3:23 ALA field goal on 4th & 3 at OU 4. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.45 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q3 8:05OUKip Lewis 49 Yd Interception Return (Zach Schmit Kick)3–24
- Q3 11:37OUXavier Robinson 1 Yd Run (Zach Schmit Kick)3–17
- Q2 0:37OUXavier Robinson 18 Yd Run (Zach Schmit Kick)3–10
- Q2 8:14OUZach Schmit 29 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 3:23ALAGraham Nicholson 22 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (OU Elo 1678, ALA Elo 2113 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects OU +15 (17% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#13 of 120 in 2024 by biggest miss · #14 of 129 in 2024 by longest odds · #7 of 60 in 2024 by biggest poll gap.
The 2024 upset archive →Oklahoma leads 5–3–1 · 33% have been one-possession games
| ALA | OU | |
|---|---|---|
| +18.3 (#12) | CORE overall | +9.3 (#37) |
| +7 / -11 | offense / defense | -5 / -14 |
| 2.62 | points / drive | 1.42 |
| 1.46 | allowed / drive | 1.58 |
| 29% | three-and-outs | 29% |
| +0 | pass over expected | -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →