#4Jalen Milroe

QB·Alabama·2024 20239.3 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Jalen Milroe is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Alabama. Jalen's 2024 season ranks in the 65th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 476 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Jalen Milroe's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Passing

205/319 Comp/Att2844 Pass yards16 Pass TD11 INT64.3% Comp %

Rushing

726 Rush yards20 Rush TD168 Carries4.3 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs QB peers

Efficiency65
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency77
Clutch56

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)65th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency77th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Peak game: 1.35 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Western Kentucky (SP+ -2).

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗

Star

Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0
Kyle McCord	Syracuse	2024	632	0.509	12.1	321.4
Tanner Mordecai	SMU	2021	510	0.630	14.0	321.5
Sam Hartman	Wake Forest	2021	647	0.556	11.8	359.6
Trace McSorley	Penn State	2017	626	0.513	12.7	321.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsWestern Kentucky	W63-0	-2.2	7/9	200	3	0	98.7	79	2	1.35
2	vsSouth Florida	W42-16	-2.3	16/26	194	2	0	50.5	2	2	0.38
3	@Wisconsin	W42-10	3.0	12/17	196	3	0	89.9	75	2	0.58
5	vsGeorgia	W41-34	24.3	27/33	374	2	1	98.5	117	2	0.43
6	@Vanderbilt	L35-40	4.9	18/24	310	1	1	77.9	10	1	0.46
7	vsSouth Carolina	W27-25	16.9	16/23	209	1	2	69.2	36	2	0.29
8	@Tennessee	L17-24	22.0	25/45	239	1	2	65.3	11	0	-0.02
9	vsMissouri	W34-0	14.0	16/26	215	0	0	71.7	50	1	0.36
11	@LSU	W42-13	15.9	12/18	109	0	0	99.3	185	4	0.87
12	vsMercer	W52-7	—	11/16	186	2	0	91.8	43	1	0.97
13	@Oklahoma	L3-24	9.5	11/26	164	0	3	15.4	7	0	-0.07
14	vsAuburn	W28-14	9.5	18/24	256	0	1	97.3	104	3	0.50
20	vsMichigan	L13-19	10.6	16/32	192	1	1	26.5	7	0	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

57.8%

Passing plays

90.2%

Rushing plays

31.8%

Standard downs

50.1%

Passing downs

78.1%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.32
Passing downs: 0.41
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.30 / 0.47

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2023 — 2024 · 26 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2023	Alabama	11.0	0.630	—	284.8
2024	Alabama	9.3	0.499	-0.13	252.0

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.