Sam Houston vs. Rice: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
SHSUTeam statsRICE
- Q3 3:38SHSUChristian Pavon 26 Yd Field Goal 34–14
- Q3 7:31RICEDean Connors 15 Yd Run (Tim Horn Kick)31–14
- Q3 10:17SHSUJohn Gentry 1 Yd Run (Christian Pavon Kick)31–7
- Q2 1:53SHSUIfe Adeyi 32 Yd pass from Hunter Watson (Christian Pavon Kick)24–7
- Q2 11:17RICEKobie Campbell 22 Yd pass from E.J. Warner (Tim Horn Kick)17–7
- Q1 3:37SHSUChristian Pavon 52 Yd Field Goal 17–0
- Q1 8:52SHSUDavid Fisher 30 Yd Interception Return (Christian Pavon Kick)14–0
- Q1 9:42SHSUQua'Vez Humphreys 67 Yd pass from Hunter Watson (Christian Pavon Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- SHSU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 36% success rate
- PassHunter Watson 16/27, 229 YDS, 2 TD
- RushHunter Watson 14 CAR, 57 YDS
- RecQua'Vez Humphreys 3 REC, 93 YDS, 1 TD
- PassE.J. Warner 27/44, 227 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushDean Connors 12 CAR, 52 YDS, 1 TD
- RecMatt Sykes 6 REC, 74 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSHSU up 20 entering the 4th quarter. Across 816 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 9:42SHSU +19%
Qua'Vez Humphreys 67 Yd pass from Hunter Watson (Christian Pavon Kick)
- Q1 8:52SHSU +15%
David Fisher 30 Yd Interception Return (Christian Pavon Kick)
- Q2 1:53SHSU +13%
Ife Adeyi 32 Yd pass from Hunter Watson (Christian Pavon Kick)
- Q2 11:17RICE +13%
Kobie Campbell 22 Yd pass from E.J. Warner (Tim Horn Kick)
- Q1 3:37SHSU +6%
Christian Pavon 52 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 3:38SHSU +6%
Christian Pavon 26 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Sam Houston vs. Rice?
Sam Houston 34, Rice 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked RICE, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| SHSU | RICE | |
|---|---|---|
| 407 | Total yards | 274 |
| 229 | Passing yards | 227 |
| 178 | Rushing yards | 47 |
| 20 | First downs | 14 |
| 6-16 | 3rd down | 5-15 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 16/27 | Comp/Att | 27/44 |
| 8.5 | Yards per pass | 5.2 |
| 3.9 | Yards per rush | 2.6 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 2-20 | Penalties | 6-44 |
| 35:20 | Possession | 24:40 |
Costliest call
Q1 11:21 SHSU punt on 4th & 1 at SHSU 33. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.83 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q3 3:38SHSUChristian Pavon 26 Yd Field Goal 34–14
- Q3 7:31RICEDean Connors 15 Yd Run (Tim Horn Kick)31–14
- Q3 10:17SHSUJohn Gentry 1 Yd Run (Christian Pavon Kick)31–7
- Q2 1:53SHSUIfe Adeyi 32 Yd pass from Hunter Watson (Christian Pavon Kick)24–7
- Q2 11:17RICEKobie Campbell 22 Yd pass from E.J. Warner (Tim Horn Kick)17–7
- Q1 3:37SHSUChristian Pavon 52 Yd Field Goal 17–0
- Q1 8:52SHSUDavid Fisher 30 Yd Interception Return (Christian Pavon Kick)14–0
- Q1 9:42SHSUQua'Vez Humphreys 67 Yd pass from Hunter Watson (Christian Pavon Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (RICE Elo 1362, SHSU Elo 1388 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects RICE -1.4 (55% to win) — 8.6 points clear of SHSU's market line of -10. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#27 of 120 in 2024 by biggest miss · #50 of 129 in 2024 by longest odds.
The 2024 upset archive →Rice leads 15–2 · 35% have been one-possession games
| SHSU | RICE | |
|---|---|---|
| -4.3 (#82) | CORE overall | -2.8 (#76) |
| -8 / -3 | offense / defense | -5 / -2 |
| 1.99 | points / drive | 1.27 |
| 1.57 | allowed / drive | 2.16 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 33% |
| -3 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →