West Virginia vs. Oklahoma State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WVUTeam statsOKST
- Q4 8:30OKSTDe'Zhaun Stribling 43 Yd pass from Garret Rangel (Logan Ward Kick)38–14
- Q4 9:01WVUCJ Donaldson Jr. 1 Yd Run (Michael Hayes II Kick)38–7
- Q2 0:28WVUCJ Donaldson Jr. 15 Yd Run (Michael Hayes II Kick)31–7
- Q2 1:54OKSTRashod Owens 8 Yd pass from Alan Bowman (Logan Ward Kick)24–7
- Q2 5:55WVUGarrett Greene 15 Yd Run (Michael Hayes II Kick)24–0
- Q2 11:16WVUJahiem White 10 Yd Run (Michael Hayes II Kick)17–0
- Q1 0:55WVUTraylon Ray 10 Yd pass from Nicco Marchiol (Michael Hayes II Kick)10–0
- Q1 9:20WVUMichael Hayes II 39 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- OKST played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and WVU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.7 vs 3rd & 7.1
- PassGarrett Greene 9/15, 159 YDS
- RushJahiem White 19 CAR, 158 YDS, 1 TD
- RecHudson Clement 3 REC, 64 YDS
- PassAlan Bowman 10/19, 116 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushOllie Gordon II 13 CAR, 50 YDS
- RecDa'Wain Lofton 3 REC, 73 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWVU up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 552 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 0:55WVU +19%
Nicco Marchiol pass complete to Traylon Ray for 10 yds for a TD (Michael Hayes II KICK)
- Q2 11:16WVU +14%
Jahiem White run for 10 yds for a TD (Michael Hayes II KICK)
- Q1 9:20WVU +8%
Michael Hayes II 39 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 5:55WVU +7%
Garrett Greene run for 15 yds for a TD (Michael Hayes II KICK)
- Q2 1:54OKST +7%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Rashod Owens for 8 yds for a TD (Logan Ward KICK)
- Q2 0:28WVU +6%
CJ Donaldson Jr. run for 15 yds for a TD (Michael Hayes II KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of West Virginia vs. Oklahoma State?
West Virginia 38, Oklahoma State 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked OKST, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| WVU | OKST | |
|---|---|---|
| 558 | Total yards | 227 |
| 169 | Passing yards | 191 |
| 389 | Rushing yards | 36 |
| 31 | First downs | 11 |
| 9-15 | 3rd down | 3-10 |
| 2-4 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 10/16 | Comp/Att | 14/24 |
| 10.6 | Yards per pass | 8.0 |
| 6.0 | Yards per rush | 1.7 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 2-5 | Penalties | 3-30 |
| 42:40 | Possession | 17:20 |
Costliest call
Q3 7:33 OKST go for it on 4th & 17 at WVU 43. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.13 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 8:30OKSTDe'Zhaun Stribling 43 Yd pass from Garret Rangel (Logan Ward Kick)38–14
- Q4 9:01WVUCJ Donaldson Jr. 1 Yd Run (Michael Hayes II Kick)38–7
- Q2 0:28WVUCJ Donaldson Jr. 15 Yd Run (Michael Hayes II Kick)31–7
- Q2 1:54OKSTRashod Owens 8 Yd pass from Alan Bowman (Logan Ward Kick)24–7
- Q2 5:55WVUGarrett Greene 15 Yd Run (Michael Hayes II Kick)24–0
- Q2 11:16WVUJahiem White 10 Yd Run (Michael Hayes II Kick)17–0
- Q1 0:55WVUTraylon Ray 10 Yd pass from Nicco Marchiol (Michael Hayes II Kick)10–0
- Q1 9:20WVUMichael Hayes II 39 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (OKST Elo 1553, WVU Elo 1546 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects OKST -2.7 (58% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#37 of 120 in 2024 by biggest miss · #99 of 129 in 2024 by longest odds.
The 2024 upset archive →Oklahoma State leads 10–6 · 38% have been one-possession games
| WVU | OKST | |
|---|---|---|
| -4.4 (#83) | CORE overall | -7.5 (#91) |
| +3 / +7 | offense / defense | +4 / +12 |
| 2.52 | points / drive | 2.02 |
| 3.19 | allowed / drive | 2.97 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 32% |
| -9 | pass over expected | +8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →