North Carolina vs. Virginia: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UNCTeam statsUVA
- Q4 5:05UNCNoah Burnette 25 Yd Field Goal 41–14
- Q4 10:07UVAJR Wilson 68 Yd pass from Tony Muskett (Tony Muskett Pass to Dakota Twitty for Two-Point Conversion)38–14
- Q3 0:17UNCJahvaree Ritzie 84 Yd Interception Return (Noah Burnette Kick)38–6
- Q3 12:07UNCOmarion Hampton 8 Yd Run (Noah Burnette Kick)31–6
- Q2 0:05UNCJ.J. Jones 31 Yd pass from Jacolby Criswell (Noah Burnette Kick)24–6
- Q2 1:32UNCOmarion Hampton 3 Yd Run (Noah Burnette Kick)17–6
- Q2 4:02UVAWill Bettridge 27 Yd Field Goal 10–6
- Q2 7:51UNCNoah Burnette 30 Yd Field Goal 10–3
- Q1 5:23UNCJ.J. Jones 37 Yd pass from Jacolby Criswell (Noah Burnette Kick)7–3
- Q1 8:36UVAWill Bettridge 30 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UVA played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and UNC did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.0 vs 3rd & 5.8
- UNC lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 15% explosive on a 40% success rate
- PassJacolby Criswell 19/30, 293 YDS, 2 TD
- RushOmarion Hampton 26 CAR, 105 YDS, 2 TD
- RecJ.J. Jones 5 REC, 129 YDS, 2 TD
- PassAnthony Colandrea 16/28, 156 YDS, 2 INT
- RushKobe Pace 7 CAR, 24 YDS
- RecSean Wilson Jr. 1 REC, 68 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUNC up 32 entering the 4th quarter. Across 371 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 5:23UNC +19%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to J.J. Jones for 37 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)
- Q2 1:32UNC +18%
Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)
- Q2 0:05UNC +10%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to J.J. Jones for 31 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)
- Q2 4:02UVA +9%
Will Bettridge 27 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 7:51UNC +9%
Noah Burnette 30 yd FG GOOD
- Q1 8:36UVA +8%
Will Bettridge 30 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of North Carolina vs. Virginia?
North Carolina 41, Virginia 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UVA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UNC | UVA | |
|---|---|---|
| 428 | Total yards | 288 |
| 293 | Passing yards | 281 |
| 135 | Rushing yards | 7 |
| 23 | First downs | 17 |
| 7-14 | 3rd down | 6-16 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 19/31 | Comp/Att | 24/41 |
| 9.5 | Yards per pass | 6.9 |
| 3.4 | Yards per rush | 0.2 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 5-45 | Penalties | 5-45 |
| 31:37 | Possession | 28:23 |
Costliest call
Q4 13:26 UVA go for it on 4th & 10 at UVA 38. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.76 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:05UNCNoah Burnette 25 Yd Field Goal 41–14
- Q4 10:07UVAJR Wilson 68 Yd pass from Tony Muskett (Tony Muskett Pass to Dakota Twitty for Two-Point Conversion)38–14
- Q3 0:17UNCJahvaree Ritzie 84 Yd Interception Return (Noah Burnette Kick)38–6
- Q3 12:07UNCOmarion Hampton 8 Yd Run (Noah Burnette Kick)31–6
- Q2 0:05UNCJ.J. Jones 31 Yd pass from Jacolby Criswell (Noah Burnette Kick)24–6
- Q2 1:32UNCOmarion Hampton 3 Yd Run (Noah Burnette Kick)17–6
- Q2 4:02UVAWill Bettridge 27 Yd Field Goal 10–6
- Q2 7:51UNCNoah Burnette 30 Yd Field Goal 10–3
- Q1 5:23UNCJ.J. Jones 37 Yd pass from Jacolby Criswell (Noah Burnette Kick)7–3
- Q1 8:36UVAWill Bettridge 30 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UVA Elo 1425, UNC Elo 1489 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UVA +0.2 (51% to win) — 3.7 points clear of UNC's market line of -3.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#23 of 120 in 2024 by biggest miss · #85 of 129 in 2024 by longest odds.
The 2024 upset archive →North Carolina leads 65–51–4 · 41% have been one-possession games
| UNC | UVA | |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 (#84) | CORE overall | -11.9 (#107) |
| +0 / +5 | offense / defense | -6 / +6 |
| 2.13 | points / drive | 1.73 |
| 2.22 | allowed / drive | 2.58 |
| 32% | three-and-outs | 32% |
| -2 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →