St. Francis (PA) vs. Kent State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
St. Francis (PA)
▸
Kent State0-1
Final
Dix Stadium
ST. Team statsKENT
402Total yards280
195Pass202
207Rush78
16First downs16
6-173rd down2-14
1Turnovers1
34:24Possession25:36
- Q4 1:38KENTAndrew Glass 44 Yd Field Goal 23–17
- Q3 11:30ST. Mac Plummer 46 Yd Field Goal 23–14
- Q2 0:46KENTLuke Floriea 23 Yd pass from Devin Kargman (Andrew Glass Kick)20–14
- Q2 1:56ST. Mac Plummer 33 Yd Field Goal 20–7
- Q2 5:59KENTChrishon McCray 9 Yd pass from Tommy Ulatowski (Andrew Glass Kick)17–7
- Q2 10:56ST. Gavin Thomson 64 Yd pass from Jeff Hoenstine (Mac Plummer Kick)17–0
- Q1 3:46ST. Jeff Hoenstine 2 Yd Run (Mac Plummer Kick)10–0
- Q1 9:53ST. Mac Plummer 50 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
Market line
KENT −17.5
Against the number
ST. covered
line KENT −17.5
Kickoff161 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
KENT (top)ST. (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: KENT 0%
Closing line
KENT −17.5
Closing total
49.5
Model line
—
Actual result
ST. 23 – 17 KENT
St. Francis (PA)
- PassJeff Hoenstine 11/22, 195 YDS, 1 TD
- RushDeMarcus McElroy 20 CAR, 81 YDS
- RecGavin Thomson 5 REC, 124 YDS, 1 TD
Kent State
- PassDevin Kargman 22/38, 193 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushKy Thomas 11 CAR, 39 YDS
- RecLuke Floriea 6 REC, 92 YDS, 1 TD
25.3sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
138
Points / snap
0.29
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsST. up 9 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,694 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
86%
ST. went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of St. Francis (PA) vs. Kent State?
St. Francis (PA) 23, Kent State 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked KENT, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
ST.
KENT
41%
Success rate
38%
0.20
EPA / pass
0.06
0.15
EPA / rush
-0.20
40%
Early-down success
44%
33%
Pass success
39%
44%
Rush success
36%
13%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
9%
11%
Stuffed rush rate
8%
35%
Pass rate
64%
6.6
Avg 3rd-down distance
6.6
ST.
6.6 yards to go on 3rd down
69 scrimmage snaps
KENT
6.6 yards to go on 3rd down
69 scrimmage snaps
| ST. | KENT | |
|---|---|---|
| 402 | Total yards | 280 |
| 195 | Passing yards | 202 |
| 207 | Rushing yards | 78 |
| 16 | First downs | 16 |
| 6-17 | 3rd down | 2-14 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 11/22 | Comp/Att | 23/39 |
| 8.9 | Yards per pass | 5.2 |
| 4.4 | Yards per rush | 3.0 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 8-75 | Penalties | 1-5 |
| 34:24 | Possession | 25:36 |
ST.
8/10 with the model
−0.3 pts · −0.0% win prob
KENT
10/11 with the model
−0.3 pts · −0.0% win prob
Costliest call
Q3 9:55 KENT punt on 4th & 2 at KENT 33. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.25 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishST. 5/15 scoring drives← own end zone →KENT 3/14 scoring drives
KENTPUNT3 pl, -7 yds· own 39Q1
ST. FG8 pl, 52 yds· own 16Q1
KENTPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q1
ST. PUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 35Q1
KENTPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 9Q1
ST. TD5 pl, 41 yds· opp 41Q1
KENTPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 18Q1
ST. PUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 33Q1
KENTDOWNS7 pl, 62 yds· own 23Q1
ST. TD5 pl, 85 yds· own 15Q2
KENTTD10 pl, 54 yds· own 46Q2
ST. FG11 pl, 60 yds· own 25Q2
KENTTD8 pl, 68 yds· own 32Q2
ST. END1 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q2
ST. FG8 pl, 47 yds· own 25Q3
KENTPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 25Q3
ST. PUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 28Q3
KENTMISS5 pl, 28 yds· own 49Q3
ST. PUNT6 pl, 34 yds· own 23Q3
KENTPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 20Q3
ST. PUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q4
KENTPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 34Q4
ST. FUM5 pl, 22 yds· own 15Q4
KENTINT3 pl, 28 yds· opp 37Q4
ST. PUNT5 pl, 21 yds· own 20Q4
KENTDOWNS6 pl, 22 yds· own 25Q4
ST. PUNT3 pl, 3 yds· opp 47Q4
KENTFG7 pl, 55 yds· own 19Q4
ST. END3 pl, -2 yds· opp 48Q4
- Q4 1:38KENTAndrew Glass 44 Yd Field Goal 23–17
- Q3 11:30ST. Mac Plummer 46 Yd Field Goal 23–14
- Q2 0:46KENTLuke Floriea 23 Yd pass from Devin Kargman (Andrew Glass Kick)20–14
- Q2 1:56ST. Mac Plummer 33 Yd Field Goal 20–7
- Q2 5:59KENTChrishon McCray 9 Yd pass from Tommy Ulatowski (Andrew Glass Kick)17–7
- Q2 10:56ST. Gavin Thomson 64 Yd pass from Jeff Hoenstine (Mac Plummer Kick)17–0
- Q1 3:46ST. Jeff Hoenstine 2 Yd Run (Mac Plummer Kick)10–0
- Q1 9:53ST. Mac Plummer 50 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
The matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesSt. Francis (PA) were +17.5 — a 14% shot
#46 of 120 in 2024 by biggest miss · #8 of 129 in 2024 by longest odds.
The 2024 upset archive →Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →