Iowa State vs. Arizona State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ISUTeam statsASU
- Q4 7:27ISUJaylin Noel 25 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)19–45
- Q4 12:04ISUKyle Konrardy 24 Yd Field Goal 13–45
- Q3 2:57ASUCam Skattebo 33 Yd pass from Sam Leavitt (Carston Kieffer Kick)10–45
- Q3 6:27ASUXavier Guillory 21 Yd pass from Sam Leavitt (Carston Kieffer Kick)10–38
- Q3 7:38ASUXavier Guillory 8 Yd pass from Sam Leavitt (Carston Kieffer Kick)10–31
- Q2 0:27ASUCam Skattebo 2 Yd Run (Carston Kieffer Kick)10–24
- Q2 10:49ASUCam Skattebo 3 Yd Run (Carston Kieffer Kick)10–17
- Q2 13:51ISUKyle Konrardy 36 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q1 2:46ASUSam Leavitt 3 Yd Run (Carston Kieffer Kick)7–10
- Q1 6:30ISUCarson Hansen 3 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Kyle Konrardy Kick)7–3
- Q1 11:51ASUCarston Kieffer 32 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassRocco Becht 21/35, 214 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushCarson Hansen 10 CAR, 52 YDS
- RecJayden Higgins 7 REC, 115 YDS
- PassSam Leavitt 12/17, 219 YDS, 3 TD
- RushCam Skattebo 16 CAR, 170 YDS, 2 TD
- RecMelquan Stovall 4 REC, 91 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsASU up 35 entering the 4th quarter. Across 273 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 10:49ASU +20%
Cam Skattebo 3 Yd Run (Carston Kieffer Kick)
- Q1 2:46ASU +19%
Sam Leavitt 3 Yd Run (Carston Kieffer Kick)
- Q1 6:30ISU +18%
Carson Hansen 3 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Kyle Konrardy Kick)
- Q2 0:27ASU +16%
Cam Skattebo 2 Yd Run (Carston Kieffer Kick)
- Q2 13:51ISU +9%
Kyle Konrardy 36 Yd Field Goal
- Q1 11:51ASU +8%
Carston Kieffer 32 Yd Field Goal
FAQ
What was the final score of Iowa State vs. Arizona State?
Iowa State 19, Arizona State 45.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ISU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ISU | ASU | |
|---|---|---|
| 341 | Total yards | 467 |
| 214 | Passing yards | 219 |
| 127 | Rushing yards | 248 |
| 23 | First downs | 17 |
| 7-14 | 3rd down | 5-12 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 21/38 | Comp/Att | 12/18 |
| 5.6 | Yards per pass | 12.2 |
| 4.0 | Yards per rush | 6.9 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 2-10 | Penalties | 7-64 |
| 29:33 | Possession | 30:27 |
Costliest call
Q2 2:39 ASU punt on 4th & 23 at ISU 42. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.10 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 7:27ISUJaylin Noel 25 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)19–45
- Q4 12:04ISUKyle Konrardy 24 Yd Field Goal 13–45
- Q3 2:57ASUCam Skattebo 33 Yd pass from Sam Leavitt (Carston Kieffer Kick)10–45
- Q3 6:27ASUXavier Guillory 21 Yd pass from Sam Leavitt (Carston Kieffer Kick)10–38
- Q3 7:38ASUXavier Guillory 8 Yd pass from Sam Leavitt (Carston Kieffer Kick)10–31
- Q2 0:27ASUCam Skattebo 2 Yd Run (Carston Kieffer Kick)10–24
- Q2 10:49ASUCam Skattebo 3 Yd Run (Carston Kieffer Kick)10–17
- Q2 13:51ISUKyle Konrardy 36 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q1 2:46ASUSam Leavitt 3 Yd Run (Carston Kieffer Kick)7–10
- Q1 6:30ISUCarson Hansen 3 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Kyle Konrardy Kick)7–3
- Q1 11:51ASUCarston Kieffer 32 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ASU Elo 1712, ISU Elo 1751 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects ASU +1.6 (47% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#35 of 120 in 2024 by biggest miss · #114 of 129 in 2024 by longest odds.
The 2024 upset archive →| ISU | ASU | |
|---|---|---|
| +5.5 (#47) | CORE overall | +16.5 (#19) |
| +3 / -3 | offense / defense | +11 / -6 |
| 2.68 | points / drive | 3.03 |
| 2.10 | allowed / drive | 1.92 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 17% |
| +1 | pass over expected | -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →