Memphis vs. Tulane: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MEMTeam statsTULN
- Q4 1:08TULNShazz Preston 3 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Patrick Durkin Kick)34–24
- Q4 2:41MEMMario Anderson Jr. 47 Yd Run (Tristian Vandenberg Kick)34–17
- Q4 13:29TULNArnold Barnes III 2 Yd Run (Patrick Durkin Kick)27–17
- Q4 14:57MEMTristian Vandenberg 23 Yd Field Goal 27–10
- Q3 11:02MEMGreg Desrosiers Jr. 29 Yd Run (Tristian Vandenberg Kick)24–10
- Q2 1:45MEMTristian Vandenberg 28 Yd Field Goal 17–10
- Q2 10:40MEMGreg Desrosiers Jr. 25 Yd pass from Seth Henigan (Tristian Vandenberg Kick)14–10
- Q1 0:34TULNMario Williams 7 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Patrick Durkin Kick)7–10
- Q1 6:58TULNPatrick Durkin 44 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 11:04MEMGreg Desrosiers Jr. 17 Yd pass from Seth Henigan (Tristian Vandenberg Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassSeth Henigan 22/29, 218 YDS, 2 TD
- RushMario Anderson Jr. 24 CAR, 177 YDS, 1 TD
- RecRoc Taylor 7 REC, 96 YDS
- PassDarian Mensah 21/33, 317 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushShaadie Clayton-Johnson 2 CAR, 29 YDS
- RecMario Williams 7 REC, 130 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMEM up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,010 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 11:02MEM +23%
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 29 yds for a TD (Tristian Vandenberg KICK)
- Q2 10:40MEM +18%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Greg Desrosiers Jr. for 25 yds for a TD (Tristian Vandenberg KICK)
- Q4 13:29TULN +17%
Arnold Barnes III run for 2 yds for a TD (Patrick Durkin KICK)
- Q1 11:04MEM +16%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Greg Desrosiers Jr. for 17 yds for a TD (Tristian Vandenberg KICK)
- Q1 0:34TULN +15%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Mario Williams for 7 yds for a TD (Patrick Durkin KICK)
- Q2 1:45MEM +14%
Tristian Vandenberg 28 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Memphis vs. Tulane?
Memphis 34, Tulane 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked TULN, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MEM | TULN | |
|---|---|---|
| 454 | Total yards | 374 |
| 218 | Passing yards | 317 |
| 236 | Rushing yards | 57 |
| 26 | First downs | 15 |
| 10-16 | 3rd down | 6-11 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 22/29 | Comp/Att | 21/33 |
| 7.5 | Yards per pass | 9.6 |
| 4.9 | Yards per rush | 3.2 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 6-69 | Penalties | 3-25 |
| 39:40 | Possession | 20:20 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:00 MEM go for it on 4th & 16 at TULN 49. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.41 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:08TULNShazz Preston 3 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Patrick Durkin Kick)34–24
- Q4 2:41MEMMario Anderson Jr. 47 Yd Run (Tristian Vandenberg Kick)34–17
- Q4 13:29TULNArnold Barnes III 2 Yd Run (Patrick Durkin Kick)27–17
- Q4 14:57MEMTristian Vandenberg 23 Yd Field Goal 27–10
- Q3 11:02MEMGreg Desrosiers Jr. 29 Yd Run (Tristian Vandenberg Kick)24–10
- Q2 1:45MEMTristian Vandenberg 28 Yd Field Goal 17–10
- Q2 10:40MEMGreg Desrosiers Jr. 25 Yd pass from Seth Henigan (Tristian Vandenberg Kick)14–10
- Q1 0:34TULNMario Williams 7 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Patrick Durkin Kick)7–10
- Q1 6:58TULNPatrick Durkin 44 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 11:04MEMGreg Desrosiers Jr. 17 Yd pass from Seth Henigan (Tristian Vandenberg Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TULN Elo 1874, MEM Elo 1621 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TULN -12.5 (80% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#52 of 120 in 2024 by biggest miss · #23 of 129 in 2024 by longest odds · #28 of 60 in 2024 by biggest poll gap.
The 2024 upset archive →Memphis leads 25–16–1 · 31% have been one-possession games
| MEM | TULN | |
|---|---|---|
| -0.7 (#71) | CORE overall | +13.8 (#27) |
| +3 / +4 | offense / defense | +7 / -7 |
| 3.01 | points / drive | 2.86 |
| 2.31 | allowed / drive | 1.70 |
| 21% | three-and-outs | 21% |
| +7 | pass over expected | -8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →