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Mario Williams
Mario Williams

#4Mario Williams

WR·Tulane·2024

Mario Williams is a Versatile WR for Tulane. Mario's 2024 season ranks in the 100th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 68 plays — a elite rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

  • Usage share (volume)0.47
    Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
  • EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
    Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
  • Total EPA (value)0.45
    Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Mario Williams's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Receiving
60 Receptions1031 Rec yards6 Rec TD17.2 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs WR peers

  • Efficiency100
  • Volume25
  • Explosiveness68
  • Consistency84
  • Pass-Down100
Player type
Versatile WR

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role
Peer percentiles
Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite
Game-to-game consistency84th %ile · above avg
Key findings
  • ▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
  • ▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
  • ▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
  • ▸12 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
  • ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
  • ▸Peak game: 2.15 EPA/play in Wk 5 vs South Florida (SP+ -2).

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗
Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

+2.150−2.15Wk 1 vs SE Louisiana: +1.96 EPA/play1Wk 2 vs Kansas State: +1.09 EPA/play2Wk 3 vs Oklahoma: +0.07 EPA/play3Wk 4 vs Louisiana: +0.52 EPA/play4Wk 5 vs South Florida: +2.15 EPA/play5Wk 6 vs UAB: +0.71 EPA/play6Wk 8 vs Rice: +1.49 EPA/play8Wk 9 vs North Texas: +1.93 EPA/play9Wk 10 vs Charlotte: +1.28 EPA/play10Wk 11 vs Temple: +1.33 EPA/play11Wk 12 vs Navy: +1.33 EPA/play12Wk 14 vs Memphis: +0.47 EPA/play14Wk 15 vs Army: +0.73 EPA/play15
EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost
WkOpponentResultOpp SP+RecRec YdsAvgRec TDLongEPA/play
1vsSE LouisianaW52-0—412431.00681.96
2vsKansas StateL27-3414.1612821.30471.09
3@OklahomaL19-349.533612.00220.07
4@LouisianaW41-334.85244.80140.52
5vsSouth FloridaW45-10-2.349423.52532.15
6@UABW71-20-11.3188.0080.71
8vsRiceW24-10-11.43258.30181.49
9@North TexasW45-37-4.522613.01171.93
10@CharlotteW34-3-15.369616.00251.28
11vsTempleW52-6-20.349423.50461.33
12@NavyW35-03.534615.30211.33
14vsMemphisL24-349.6713018.61550.47
15@ArmyL14-359.2610918.21420.73
20vsFloridaL8-3313.869115.2122—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy
Overall
8.9%
Passing plays
22.5%
Rushing plays
0.5%
Standard downs
8.3%
Passing downs
10.3%
EPA by down type
Standard downs
0.67
Passing downs
1.67
Pass / Rush EPA
1.09 / 0.19

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

EPA = expected points added (opponent-adjusted). NIL estimates are model-based ranges, not reported deals. Data: CollegeFootballData. Not betting advice.