Liberty vs. Kennesaw State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
LIBTeam statsKENN
- Q4 1:49LIBElijah Canion 17 Yd pass from Kaidon Salter (Colin Karhu Kick)24–27
- Q4 4:13KENNAustin Welch 41 Yd Field Goal 17–27
- Q4 11:43KENNAustin Welch 31 Yd Field Goal 17–24
- Q3 5:05LIBColin Karhu 47 Yd Field Goal 17–21
- Q3 8:02KENNQua Ashley 6 Yd Run (Austin Welch Kick)14–21
- Q2 0:48LIBDonte Lee Jr. 15 Yd pass from Kaidon Salter (Colin Karhu Kick)14–14
- Q2 10:21KENNMichael Benefield 1 Yd Run (Austin Welch Kick)7–14
- Q1 2:49KENNChristian Moss 41 Yd pass from Davis Bryson (Austin Welch Kick)7–7
- Q1 5:43LIBTreon Sibley 15 Yd pass from Kaidon Salter (Colin Karhu Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- KENN lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 16% explosive on a 39% success rate
- PassKaidon Salter 22/40, 206 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushKaidon Salter 9 CAR, 87 YDS
- RecElijah Canion 5 REC, 61 YDS, 1 TD
- PassDavis Bryson 16/20, 189 YDS, 1 TD
- RushMichael Benefield 16 CAR, 54 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJaden Robinson 3 REC, 72 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsKENN up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,446 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 1:49LIB +34%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Elijah Canion for 17 yds for a TD (Colin Karhu KICK)
- Q4 1:46KENN +28%
Tykeem Wallace run for 4 yds to the LIB 40
- Q3 8:02KENN +28%
Qua Ashley run for 6 yds for a TD (Austin Welch KICK)
- Q2 0:48LIB +23%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Donte Lee Jr. for 15 yds for a TD (Colin Karhu KICK)
- Q2 10:21KENN +21%
Michael Benefield run for 1 yd for a TD (Austin Welch KICK)
- Q4 11:43KENN +15%
Austin Welch 31 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Liberty vs. Kennesaw State?
Liberty 24, Kennesaw State 27.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked LIB, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| LIB | KENN | |
|---|---|---|
| 386 | Total yards | 323 |
| 206 | Passing yards | 189 |
| 180 | Rushing yards | 134 |
| 22 | First downs | 18 |
| 6-14 | 3rd down | 7-14 |
| 3-5 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 22/40 | Comp/Att | 16/20 |
| 5.2 | Yards per pass | 9.5 |
| 5.8 | Yards per rush | 3.2 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 9-100 | Penalties | 6-40 |
| 27:41 | Possession | 32:19 |
Costliest call
Q4 7:27 LIB go for it on 4th & 11 at KENN 34. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.48 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:49LIBElijah Canion 17 Yd pass from Kaidon Salter (Colin Karhu Kick)24–27
- Q4 4:13KENNAustin Welch 41 Yd Field Goal 17–27
- Q4 11:43KENNAustin Welch 31 Yd Field Goal 17–24
- Q3 5:05LIBColin Karhu 47 Yd Field Goal 17–21
- Q3 8:02KENNQua Ashley 6 Yd Run (Austin Welch Kick)14–21
- Q2 0:48LIBDonte Lee Jr. 15 Yd pass from Kaidon Salter (Colin Karhu Kick)14–14
- Q2 10:21KENNMichael Benefield 1 Yd Run (Austin Welch Kick)7–14
- Q1 2:49KENNChristian Moss 41 Yd pass from Davis Bryson (Austin Welch Kick)7–7
- Q1 5:43LIBTreon Sibley 15 Yd pass from Kaidon Salter (Colin Karhu Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (KENN Elo 1255, LIB Elo 1581 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects KENN +10.6 (25% to win) — 16.4 points clear of KENN's market line of +27. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#26 of 120 in 2024 by biggest miss · #2 of 129 in 2024 by longest odds.
The 2024 upset archive →| LIB | KENN | |
|---|---|---|
| +2.5 (#57) | CORE overall | -27.6 (#131) |
| +3 / +0 | offense / defense | -20 / +7 |
| 2.46 | points / drive | 1.20 |
| 2.05 | allowed / drive | 2.64 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 44% |
| -11 | pass over expected | -15 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →