South Carolina vs. Kentucky: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
SCTeam statsUK
- Q4 14:49SCNick Emmanwori 24 Yd Interception Return (Alex Herrera Kick)31–6
- Q3 0:28SCRaheim Sanders 6 Yd Run (Alex Herrera Kick)24–6
- Q3 6:49SCJoshua Simon 16 Yd pass from LaNorris Sellers (Alex Herrera Kick)17–6
- Q2 0:19UKAlex Raynor 39 Yd Field Goal 10–6
- Q2 1:55UKAlex Raynor 32 Yd Field Goal 10–3
- Q2 8:06SCAlex Herrera 29 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 7:39SCMazeo Bennett Jr. 24 Yd pass from LaNorris Sellers (Alex Herrera Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- SC played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and UK did not face the same ones. 3rd & 12.0 vs 3rd & 8.9
- SC lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 16% explosive on a 30% success rate
- PassLaNorris Sellers 10/14, 166 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushRaheim Sanders 13 CAR, 54 YDS, 1 TD
- RecMazeo Bennett Jr. 3 REC, 63 YDS, 1 TD
- PassBrock Vandagriff 3/10, 30 YDS, 1 INT
- RushDemie Sumo-Karngbaye 17 CAR, 70 YDS
- RecDane Key 2 REC, 36 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSC up 18 entering the 4th quarter. Across 838 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 6:49SC +23%
Joshua Simon 16 Yd pass from LaNorris Sellers (Alex Herrera Kick)
- Q1 7:39SC +18%
Mazeo Bennett Jr. 24 Yd pass from LaNorris Sellers (Alex Herrera Kick)
- Q2 0:19UK +10%
Alex Raynor 39 Yd Field Goal
- Q2 1:55UK +9%
Alex Raynor 32 Yd Field Goal
- Q3 0:34SC +9%
Sellers, LaNorris pass incomplete to Simon, Joshua, PENALTY UK holding 6 yards to the UK6, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SC
- Q2 8:06SC +9%
Alex Herrera 29 Yd Field Goal
FAQ
What was the final score of South Carolina vs. Kentucky?
South Carolina 31, Kentucky 6.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UK, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| SC | UK | |
|---|---|---|
| 252 | Total yards | 183 |
| 173 | Passing yards | 44 |
| 79 | Rushing yards | 139 |
| 13 | First downs | 13 |
| 3-10 | 3rd down | 3-14 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 11/15 | Comp/Att | 6/17 |
| 11.5 | Yards per pass | 2.6 |
| 2.3 | Yards per rush | 3.0 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 8-70 | Penalties | 11-63 |
| 27:39 | Possession | 32:21 |
Costliest call
Q2 1:55 UK field goal on 4th & 1 at SC 14. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.95 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 14:49SCNick Emmanwori 24 Yd Interception Return (Alex Herrera Kick)31–6
- Q3 0:28SCRaheim Sanders 6 Yd Run (Alex Herrera Kick)24–6
- Q3 6:49SCJoshua Simon 16 Yd pass from LaNorris Sellers (Alex Herrera Kick)17–6
- Q2 0:19UKAlex Raynor 39 Yd Field Goal 10–6
- Q2 1:55UKAlex Raynor 32 Yd Field Goal 10–3
- Q2 8:06SCAlex Herrera 29 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 7:39SCMazeo Bennett Jr. 24 Yd pass from LaNorris Sellers (Alex Herrera Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UK Elo 1640, SC Elo 1560 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UK -5.6 (66% to win) — 3.9 points clear of SC's market line of -9.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#14 of 120 in 2024 by biggest miss · #49 of 129 in 2024 by longest odds.
The 2024 upset archive →South Carolina leads 22–14–1 · South Carolina has won 4 straight · 51% have been one-possession games
| SC | UK | |
|---|---|---|
| +19.1 (#10) | CORE overall | +0.9 (#65) |
| +9 / -10 | offense / defense | -2 / -3 |
| 2.32 | points / drive | 1.69 |
| 1.58 | allowed / drive | 2.04 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| -7 | pass over expected | -6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →