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Dane Key
Dane Key

#18Dane Key

WR·Kentucky·2024

Dane Key is a Slot Specialist WR for Kentucky. Dane's 2024 season ranks in the 100th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 55 plays — a elite rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

  • Usage share (volume)0.47
    Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
  • EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
    Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
  • Total EPA (value)0.45
    Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Dane Key's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Receiving
47 Receptions715 Rec yards2 Rec TD15.2 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs WR peers

  • Efficiency100
  • Volume23
  • Explosiveness55
  • Consistency81
  • Pass-Down100
Player type
Slot Specialist WR

The offense's primary passing-down weapon — routes, separation, and reliability on 3rd down define this role.

3rd-down converterRoute technicianHigh passing-down share
Peer percentiles
Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite
Game-to-game consistency81th %ile · above avg
Key findings
  • ▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
  • ▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
  • ▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
  • ▸9 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
  • ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
  • ▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.95 from the first to second half of the season.
  • ▸Peak game: 3.06 EPA/play in Wk 10 vs Tennessee (SP+ 22).

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗
Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

+3.060−3.06Wk 1 vs Southern Miss: +1.37 EPA/play1Wk 2 vs South Carolina: +0.37 EPA/play2Wk 3 vs Georgia: +0.35 EPA/play3Wk 4 vs Ohio: +2.17 EPA/play4Wk 5 vs Ole Miss: +0.99 EPA/play5Wk 7 vs Vanderbilt: +0.81 EPA/play7Wk 8 vs Florida: +1.45 EPA/play8Wk 9 vs Auburn: +2.57 EPA/play9Wk 10 vs Tennessee: +3.06 EPA/play10Wk 12 vs Murray State: +2.34 EPA/play12Wk 13 vs Texas: +0.57 EPA/play13
EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost
WkOpponentResultOpp SP+RecRec YdsAvgRec TDLongEPA/play
1vsSouthern MissW31-0-25.636020.00351.37
2vsSouth CarolinaL6-3116.923618.00320.37
3vsGeorgiaL12-1324.33237.70100.35
4vsOhioW41-62.3714520.70422.17
5@Ole MissW20-1727.9810513.11240.99
7vsVanderbiltL13-204.988310.41220.81
8@FloridaL20-4813.844812.00141.45
9vsAuburnL10-249.548721.80342.57
10@TennesseeL18-2822.024321.50263.06
12vsMurray StateW48-6—35618.70262.34
13@TexasL14-3124.13299.70190.57

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy
Overall
8.1%
Passing plays
17.5%
Rushing plays
0.3%
Standard downs
5.8%
Passing downs
12.9%
EPA by down type
Standard downs
0.91
Passing downs
1.66
Pass / Rush EPA
1.40 / -3.71

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

EPA = expected points added (opponent-adjusted). NIL estimates are model-based ranges, not reported deals. Data: CollegeFootballData. Not betting advice.