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Kentucky

Kentucky Wildcats

SEC·1-1·
Compare
Elo
1476#70
SP+
8.5#39
FPI
6.5
AP
NR
Next@ Texas A&M · Wk 3Win prob 4%Model +25.5
Talent #23 (786.6)Recruiting class #6019% production returning

Roster · 110 players

FR 25SO 20JR 26SR 39
#PlayerPosClHtWt
3Kenny MincheyQBSR6'2"211
9Matt PonatoskiQBFR6'1"205
10Callum WitherQBSR6'4"217
14Brennen WardQBSO6'4"227
15Carson CruverQBSR6'3"203
16JacQai LongQBJR6'2"203
17William Drakeford Jr.QBFR6'2"195
82Kendall TamblingQBFR6'5"240
1CJ BaxterRBSR6'1"230
2Jovantae BarnesRBSR6'0"211
21Tovani MizellRBJR6'0"213
22Delvecchio Alston IIRBFR6'0"210
26Jason PattersonRBJR5'10"204
28Ahmir SmithRBJR5'10"200
29Jordan ColbertRBJR6'2"215
34Isaiah JacksonRBFR5'10"185
4Nic AndersonWRSR6'4"208
5Ja'Kayden FergusonWRSO6'2"184
6Shane CarrWRSR6'2"185
7DJ MillerWRSO6'3"208
12Brock CoffmanWRSO6'0"181
13Denairius GrayWRFR6'2"181
18Xavier DaisyWRJR6'3"212
19Kenny DarbyWRFR6'1"180
33Rico CrowderWRJR6'4"201
37Spencer LeadbetterWRSR6'3"198
39Saxton HowardWRSO6'0"177
80Ashton CozartWRSR6'3"202
83Prince JeanWRFR6'1"187
84Davis McCrayWRFR6'2"196
89Cash HarneyWRFR5'9"177
8Mikkel SkinnerTESO6'4"234
11Lincoln WatkinsTEFR6'4"234
44Justin KattusTEJR6'1"216
81Willie RodriguezTEJR6'4"249
85Elijah BrownTESR6'6"263
87Henry BoyerTESR6'6"270
50Max AndersonOLJR6'5"311
52Cameron Miller Jr.OLFR6'5"341
53Lance HeardOLSR6'6"325
55Aba SelmOLJR6'4"327
57Jordan KnoxOLSR6'2"329
60Mason HowardOLFR6'4"321
61Jason EkperuohOLSO6'6"354
62Ben MyersOLFR6'4"286
64Ryan MeekerOLFR6'1"311
66Tino MerloOLSR6'2"278
67Mark RobinsonOLJR6'5"328
68Alexander DiMartinoOLSO6'4"306
69Hank TimonOLFR6'6"318
70Rob FoglerOLSR6'7"325
71Malachi WoodOLSR6'8"329
72Coleton PriceOLSR6'3"308
73Olaus AlinenOLSR6'6"329
74Jermiel Atkins Jr.OLFR6'8"326
75Hayes JohnsonOLJR6'4"310
77Tegra TshabolaOLSR6'3"329
78Cameron JonesOLSR6'6"335
79Jay ClarkOLSO6'4"318
92Ben DuncumDEFR6'5"224
97Tyler ThomasDESR6'5"260
7Jamarrion HarklessDLSR6'3"346
23Brian RobinsonDLJR6'5"257
90Mi'Quise Humphrey-GraceDLSR6'4"271
91Jaden WilliamsDLSR6'4"290
93Kalen EdwardsDLSO6'4"335
94Tavion GadsonDLSR6'5"303
6Ahmad BreauxDTJR6'3"278
96Dominic WisemanDTSR6'2"298
0Elijah BarnesLBSO6'1"242
2Sam GreeneLBSR6'2"251
4Antwan SmithLBJR6'3"226
8Lorenzo CowanLBJR6'3"250
15Cedric WorksLBSO6'5"247
17Justyn HartleyLBFR6'1"192
22Grant GodfreyLBSR6'3"240
25Tavion WallaceLBSO6'1"241
31Quintavion NormanLBJR6'3"223
32Devin SmithLBJR6'0"231
53Ben ReevesLBJR6'2"242
0Martels Carter Jr.DBSO6'0"205
1Andre Clarke Jr.DBFR6'1"176
3Aaron GatesDBSR6'0"199
5Jordan CastellDBSR6'2"211
10Dyllon WilliamsDBSO6'2"191
11Braxton UrquhartDBSR6'3"200
12Hasaan SykesDBJR6'0"192
13Cyrus ReyesDBJR6'1"192
14Ty BryantDBSR6'0"196
16Jesse Anderson IIIDBSR6'0"185
18Mark Manfred IIIDBSO6'2"171
19Kevis ThomasDBSR6'0"181
20Terhyon NicholsDBJR5'11"194
21Nasir AddisonDBSR6'0"204
24Jaden SmithDBSO6'3"205
26Andrew PurcellDBSO5'10"201
27Isaiah McMillianDBFR6'1"176
28Demarcus GardnerDBSO6'0"177
30Grant GraytonDBSO6'3"194
36Andrew WeberDBJR6'0"179
38Tyler WrightDBFR5'11"178
33Sam Brown IIISFR5'11"172
35Matthew ObermeierPKFR5'11"160
88Adam ZouaguiPKSR5'11"191
91Jacob KauwePKJR6'1"216
48Thomas O'HaraPSR6'1"201
93Wilson BerryPSR6'4"206
40Cole MarszalekLSSR5'11"197
59Jack WheelerLSFR6'4"248
97Spencer RadnotiLSJR6'3"237

Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank

Points / game
31.0
scoring offense
Points allowed
29.0
scoring defense
Differential
+2.0
per game
Offense
Total yards / game
357.5#100
Yards / play
5.7#88
Passing yards / game
223.5#74
Rushing yards / game
134.0#102
First downs / game
19.0#95
3rd down %
18.2%#134
4th down %
60.0%#60
Time of possession
28:49#95
Defense
Yards allowed / game
324.0#69
Yards / play allowed
5.0#67
Pass yards allowed / game
217.0#84
Rush yards allowed / game
107.0#59
3rd down % allowed
50.0%#125
Sacks
6#20
Tackles for loss
12#53
Turnovers & Discipline
Turnover margin
+1#41
Takeaways
4#22
Giveaways
3#74
Penalties / game
7.0#76
Penalty yards / game
70.0#110

Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.

Scouting Report · 2026 projection

Kentucky is in year 1 under Will Stein. The way in is 115th at keeping a clean pocket, and they are 106th at running it.

Kentucky has played 2 games against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.

Projected soft spots

  • Offensesacks and tackles for loss
    #115
    projected
  • Offenserunning it
    #106
    projected

Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.

2026 Season Projection

model win prob · 10 to play
3.6 – 8.4
projected final record (now 1–1)
Exp. wins left
2.6
of 10 games
Bowl odds
7%
reach 6 wins
Best odds
81%
vs South Alabama
Toughest
4%
vs Texas A&M

How the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left

Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.

1234567891011
final winstallest bar = 30% chance
Likeliest finish 3-9 (30%)Bowl eligible 7% · marked on the axis at 6

Player Value

EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).

Unit Value — Total EPA
TEHenry Boyer, Willie Rodriguez +1
+18.1 EPA
QBKenny Minchey
+12.7 EPA
WRNic Anderson, Kenny Darby +2
+10.4 EPA
RBJovantae Barnes, CJ Baxter Jr. +1
+4.4 EPA

Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.

Estimated NIL Market Value
ESTIMATED
QBKenny Minchey
~$647K
EPA +12.70.220/play58 snaps
RBCJ Baxter Jr.
~$195K
EPA +4.20.167/play25 snaps
RBJason Patterson
~$166K
EPA +2.40.107/play22 snaps

Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.

The Five Factors

ranked vs. FBS · bar = better
Efficiency (PPA)
Off0.1630th#97
Def0.1826th#103
Explosiveness
Off1.1015th#118
Def1.1372nd#39
Field position
Off71.970th#42
Def66.593rd#11
Finishing (pts/opp)
Off6.1197th#5
Def3.6434th#91
Turnovers
Won 4Lost 3
Margin +1

Opponent-adjusted efficiency

EPA/play vs. schedule
Offense
—
Defense
—
Off · pass
0.2231st#95
Off · rush
0.0734th#92

Pass vs. rush (PPA)

Rushing
Off0.0734th#92
Def0.1820th#111
Passing
Off0.2739th#84
Def0.2150th#69

Trenches & disruption

Line yards (off)
3.06#72
2nd-level / open-field
1.23 / 0.60
Power / stuff (off)
62.5% / 19.2%
Havoc — total (def)
20.8%#29
Havoc — front 7 / DB
12.3% / 8.5%

Standard vs. passing downs

Pro
Std downs
Off0.21
Def0.21
Pass downs
Off0.01
Def0.10

PPA on each down type (off vs. def).

Opponent-adjusted by down

Pro
1st2nd3rd
Offense0.15#500.40#39-0.42#137
Defense-0.01#800.37#1150.28#60

Elo Trajectory

Youngstown StateFinal
Elo rating 1476 → 1440-36 over season

Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams

Plot these →
worst in FBSbest

Efficiency

  • Offense EPA/play0.1942nd
  • Defense EPA/play allowed0.1336th
  • Offense success rate47%60th
  • Defense success rate allowed45%16th

Downs

  • Offense success — standard downs52%65th
  • Offense success — passing downs36%66th
  • Defense success allowed — standard downs50%16th
  • Defense success allowed — passing downs26%55th

Explosiveness

  • Offense explosiveness1.114th
  • Defense explosiveness allowed1.172nd
  • Offense explosiveness — standard downs0.9020th
  • Offense explosiveness — passing downs2.161st

Trenches

  • Offense line yards3.049th
  • Defense line yards allowed2.557th
  • Offense highlight yards0.4713th
  • Defense highlight yards allowed0.6253rd
  • Offense power success0.6532nd
  • Defense power success allowed0.8029th
  • Offense stuff rate0.1935th
  • Defense stuff rate0.1939th

Third down

  • Third down conversion20%3rd
  • Third down distance faced7.330th
  • Third down conversion allowed54%4th
  • Third down distance forced5.54th

Halves

  • Net success rate — first half0.0238th
  • Net success rate — second half-0.0326th

Drives

  • Points per drive0.254th
  • Points per drive allowed2.736th
  • Average starting field position2516th
  • Opponent starting field position404th
  • Available yards gained25%9th
  • Available yards allowed63%18th
  • Scoring opportunities per drive50%4th
  • Scoring opportunities allowed73%68th
  • Points per scoring opportunity1.718th
  • Points allowed per opportunity4.610th
  • Three-and-out rate33%32nd
  • Three-and-outs forced18%33rd

Roster

  • Returning usage18%18th
  • Returning EPA43.824th
  • Team talent composite78784th
  • Recruiting class rank60.057th
  • Recruiting class points19757th

Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.

Intelligence Report

⚡

Offensive DNA

Pass-dominant offense — below average EPA/play nationally
EPA/play
+0.155#97 · below avg
Pass EPA/play
+0.270#84
Rush EPA/play
+0.075#92
Explosiveness
1.098#118
Pts/opportunity
6.11#5
Success rate
45.5%

Pass efficiency edge: 0.196 EPA/play

🛡

Defensive Identity

High-pressure defense — allowing above-average EPA/play
EPA/play allowed
+0.178#103 · below avg
Havoc rate (total)
20.8%#29
Front-7 havoc
12.3%
DB havoc
8.5%
Big play rate allowed
1.132#39
Success rate allowed
47.0%

Disruption comes evenly from front and secondary.

📊

Season Signature

31.0 PPG offense, 29.0 allowed — +2.0 margin/game
Points per game
31.0
Points allowed/game
29.0
Scoring margin/game
+2.0
Turnover margin
+1won 4 · lost 3
Production returning
19%
Talent rank (247)
#23

1-1 record through 2 games.

Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th

OFFENSE30thEXPLOSIVENESS15thFINISHING97thFIELD POS70thDEFENSE26thHAVOC80th50th100th
Offense
30th
Explosiveness
15th
Finishing
97th
Field Pos
70th
Defense
26th
Havoc
80th

Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.

CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed

Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.

Overall
-2.5
#79
Offense
-9.1
#118
Defense
-6.6
#38
Full CORE ratings →

What a possession is worth · 12 drives

MeasureOffenseDefense
Points per drive0.252.73
Starting field positionown 24.5own 39.7
Available yards24.9%63.1%
Scoring opportunities50.0%72.7%
Points per opportunity1.674.63
Three-and-out rate33.3%18.2%
Every team’s drive efficiency →

Play-calling identity

Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.

Pass rate
56.4%
Expected, given the spots
56.7%
Over expected
-0.3
Fourth down vs peers
+13
Fourth down vs the model
+0
All play-calling tendencies →

National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play

Each dot = one FBS team. Kentucky is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.

ELITEDEF. FORTRESSOFF. POWERHOUSEREBUILDING-0.100.00+0.10+0.20+0.30-0.050.00+0.10+0.20Offensive EPA/play← worsebetter →Defensive EPA allowed/play← worsebetter →

Similar Programs

Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Kentucky in 2026

by EPA/play distance
UABSP+ -16.0
Off EPA/play +0.162Def EPA/play +0.164Elo 1411
Match
99%
Michigan StateSP+ +1.0
Off EPA/play +0.138Def EPA/play +0.192Elo 1468
Match
99%
New Mexico StateSP+ -15.0
Off EPA/play +0.177Def EPA/play +0.159Elo 1259
Match
98%
MinnesotaSP+ +9.6
Off EPA/play +0.130Def EPA/play +0.191Elo 1510
Match
98%
ArizonaSP+ +12.6
Off EPA/play +0.185Def EPA/play +0.169Elo 1625
Match
98%
South FloridaSP+ -3.1
Off EPA/play +0.141Def EPA/play +0.146Elo 1679
Match
98%

Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.

Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team

2015: -8.4, #92 of 1282016: +0.9, #59 of 1282017: -2.5, #69 of 1302018: +9.7, #31 of 1302019: +1.1, #56 of 1302020: -0.5, #66 of 1242021: +13.4, #24 of 1302022: +10.1, #32 of 1312023: +6.5, #40 of 1332024: +0.9, #65 of 1342025: +5.8, #52 of 1362026: -2.5, #79 of 138
20152026
Now -2.5 · #79 of 138Best +13.4 in 2021Worst -8.4 in 2015

Program History

recent seasons
YearOverallConfWin %xWLuck
20261-10-1
50%
1.0+0.0
20255-72-6
42%
5.6-0.6
20244-81-7
33%
4.2-0.2
20237-63-5
54%
6.9+0.1
20227-63-5
54%
7.2-0.2
202110-35-3
77%
8.5+1.5
20205-64-6
45%
5.7-0.7
20198-53-5
62%
8.1-0.1
201810-35-3
77%
7.6+2.4
20177-64-4
54%
7.3-0.3

xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).

0.3%of 50,000 simulated 2026 seasons end with them in the field

0-1 so far, projected to finish 3.6-8.4.

If they finish with…

49%
3 losses
0.5%
4 losses

Their chance of making it at each final loss count.

down 1.9 points since preseason.

  • At 3 losses they are 49% where the average SEC team is 41%.
  • The SEC takes 4.08 bids in an average season, and four or more in 75%.

Kentucky’s own turning points

Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.

  • wk3at Texas A&M2.1
  • wk6vs LSU1.8
  • wk10at Tennessee1.7
  • wk7at Oklahoma1.6
  • wk12at Missouri1.3
  • wk11vs Florida1.2

Who to root for

Games Kentucky is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.

  • wk4Lindenwood over Eastern Michigan0.3
  • wk6Kent State over Western Michigan0.2
  • wk7Rutgers over Maryland0.2
  • wk12Charlotte over Tulsa0.1
  • wk8Massachusetts over UConn0.1
  • wk6Ohio State over Maryland0.1
The full playoff picture →

SEC

0-1 in league play, projected 1.4-7.616 of 16 by title odds
0.0%
Wins the SEC
0.0%
Reaches the title game

The SEC sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 49% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.

Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole SEC race →

If not the playoff, then

12%
Bowl eligible
13%
Placed in a bowl
0.3%
In the playoff
87%
Season over in November

Kentucky is 1-1 and needs 5 more wins from 10 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 1.2% they go with five wins, as a 5-7 fill-in — which in reality is decided by academic progress rate, not by anything modelled here.

  • Birmingham Bowl2.4%
  • Liberty Bowl2.1%
  • Texas Bowl2.1%
  • Music City Bowl1.6%
  • Duke's Mayo Bowl1.1%
  • Xbox Bowl0.9%

Every bowl, and how each one picks →

Recruiting Pipelines

since 2010

Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 9 have sent Kentucky a player since 2010 — 28 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Kentucky's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.

High schoolSignedDrafted
StephensonGA70
Archbishop MoellerOH51
Our Lady of Good CounselMD31
Cardinal GibbonsFL30
St. IgnatiusOH21
MiddletownOH20
WashingtonOH20
WayneOH20
All 170 high-school pipelines →
✓/✗ = whether our pregame model picked the winner. Win % & projections from the Gridpex model. Data: CollegeFootballData.