vs New Mexico · Wk 3Win prob 90%Model -19.5Schedule & Results
UTEPUTEPW51-0✓Wk 2@
MICHMichiganL10-17✗Wk 3vsUNMNew Mexico-19.590%Wk 4@
UGAGeorgia+7.331%Wk 6vs
TEXTexas+5.736%Wk 7vs
UKKentucky-20.190%Wk 8@
MSSTMississippi State-12.979%Wk 9vs
SCSouth Carolina-8.270%Wk 10@
FLAFlorida-8.070%Wk 11vs
MISSOle Miss+6.433%Wk 12vs
TA&MTexas A&M+5.136%Wk 13@
MIZMissouri-0.852%SEC Standings
Standings →
Team Leaders
John MateerPassing414 yds · 4 TD · 1 INT
Lloyd AvantRushing114 yds · 1 TD · 4.8 avg
Rocky BeersReceiving8 rec · 137 yds · 1 TD
Owen HeineckeTackles17 tackles · 1.5 TFL · 1 sacks
Latest on Oklahoma
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Adebawore Stayed, and UTEP's Patchwork Line has to Block Him
Roster · 111 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Bowe Bentley | QB | FR | 6'1" | 208 | Celina, TX |
| 10 | John Mateer | QB | SR | 6'1" | 224 | Little Elm, TX |
| 15 | Jett Niu | QB | FR | 6'2" | 205 | Lindon, UT |
| 16 | Whitt Newbauer | QB | SO | 6'6" | 237 | Raleigh, NC |
| 6 | Tory Blaylock | RB | SO | 5'11" | 212 | Humble, TX |
| 9 | Lloyd Avant | RB | JR | 5'10" | 212 | Humble, TX |
| 20 | Jonathan Hatton Jr. | RB | FR | 6'1" | 235 | Cibolo, TX |
| 21 | Xavier Robinson | RB | JR | 6'0" | 235 | Yukon, OK |
| 23 | Ben McCreary | RB | SR | 5'9" | 215 | San Antonio, TX |
| 25 | Andy Bass | RB | SO | 5'11" | 210 | Oklahoma City, OK |
| 28 | DeZephen Walker | RB | FR | 5'10" | 215 | Kansas City, MO |
| 29 | Gabe Sawchuk | RB | SO | 5'10" | 202 | Littleton, CO |
| 0 | Manny Choice | WR | SO | 6'4" | 210 | Lancaster, TX |
| 1 | Isaiah Sategna III | WR | SR | 5'10" | 185 | Austin, TX |
| 2 | Jahsiear Rogers | WR | FR | 5'11" | 182 | Wilmington, DE |
| 3 | Parker Livingstone | WR | SO | 6'3" | 200 | Lucas, TX |
| 4 | Daniel Odom | WR | FR | 6'2" | 195 | Los Angeles, CA |
| 5 | Jer'Michael Carter | WR | SR | 6'2" | 212 | Kentwood, LA |
| 7 | Jacob Jordan | WR | JR | 5'9" | 185 | Southlake, TX |
| 11 | Trell Harris | WR | SR | 6'0" | 200 | La Grange, IL |
| 13 | Jayden Petit | WR | FR | 6'4" | 218 | Naples, FL |
| 14 | Elijah Thomas | WR | SO | 6'1" | 200 | Checotah, OK |
| 17 | Mackenzie Alleyne | WR | SO | 5'11" | 184 | Tustin, CA |
| 80 | Eli Merck | WR | JR | 5'11" | 203 | Norris, SC |
| 82 | Ivan Carreon | WR | JR | 6'6" | 238 | Odessa, TX |
| 84 | Xavier Okwufulueze | WR | FR | 6'5" | 217 | Owasso, OK |
| 85 | Trey Brown | WR | JR | 5'9" | 178 | Nashville, TN |
| 12 | Ryder Mix | TE | FR | 6'3" | 238 | Little Elm, TX |
| 18 | Tyler Ruxer | TE | FR | 6'4" | 235 | Saint Meinrad, IN |
| 19 | Kade McIntyre | TE | JR | 6'3" | 225 | Fremont, NE |
| 22 | Trynae Washington | TE | FR | 6'3" | 265 | Midwest City, OK |
| 44 | John Locke Jr. | TE | SR | 6'4" | 250 | San Antonio, TX |
| 81 | Rocky Beers | TE | SR | 6'5" | 240 | Littleton, CO |
| 87 | CJ Nickson | TE | FR | 6'4" | 272 | Weatherford, OK |
| 88 | Jack Van Dorselaer | TE | SO | 6'4" | 250 | Southlake, TX |
| 89 | Hayden Hansen | TE | SR | 6'8" | 270 | Weatherford, TX |
| 52 | Noah Best | OL | FR | 6'4" | 318 | Midlothian, TX |
| 55 | Eddy Pierre-Louis | OL | SO | 6'3" | 319 | Tampa, FL |
| 56 | Michael Fasusi | OL | SO | 6'5" | 320 | Omuo |
| 57 | Gunnar Allen | OL | SR | 6'1" | 295 | Aledo, TX |
| 60 | Caleb Nitta | OL | JR | 6'2" | 305 | Leesburg, VA |
| 61 | Kenneth Wermy | OL | JR | 6'4" | 312 | Cache, OK |
| 64 | Sean Hutton | OL | FR | 6'0" | 305 | Lewisville, TX |
| 65 | Ace Hodges | OL | SO | 6'1" | 305 | Oklahoma City, OK |
| 68 | Owen Hollenbeck | OL | FR | 6'3" | 340 | Melissa, TX |
| 69 | Jake Maikkula | OL | SR | 6'6" | 305 | Sedalia, CO |
| 70 | Ryan Fodje | OL | SO | 6'5" | 327 | Cypress, TX |
| 71 | Peyton Joseph | OL | SO | 6'4" | 330 | Fort Valley, GA |
| 72 | Fred Hinton | OL | JR | 6'4" | 315 | Miami, FL |
| 73 | Deacon Schmitt | OL | FR | 6'5" | 315 | Windsor, CO |
| 74 | Darius Afalava | OL | FR | 6'4" | 365 | Lehi, UT |
| 75 | Daniel Akinkunmi | OL | SO | 6'6" | 325 | East London |
| 76 | E'Marion Harris | OL | SR | 6'6" | 318 | Little Rock, AR |
| 77 | Heath Ozaeta | OL | JR | 6'5" | 315 | Snoqualmie, WA |
| 0 | David Stone | DL | JR | 6'3" | 312 | Del City, OK |
| 6 | Nigel Smith II | DL | SO | 6'4" | 295 | Melissa, TX |
| 8 | Bishop Thomas | DL | SR | 6'1" | 300 | New Orleans, LA |
| 16 | Danny Okoye | DL | SO | 6'3" | 260 | Tulsa, OK |
| 19 | Brian Harris | DL | FR | 6'3" | 280 | Jacksonville, FL |
| 34 | Adepoju Adebawore | DL | SR | 6'4" | 265 | Kansas City, MO |
| 40 | Matthew Nelson | DL | FR | 6'5" | 247 | Bryant, AR |
| 42 | Wyatt Gilmore | DL | SO | 6'4" | 258 | Rogers, MN |
| 44 | Taylor Wein | DL | JR | 6'4" | 270 | Brentwood, TN |
| 55 | Danny Saili | DL | SR | 6'3" | 325 | Topeka, KS |
| 58 | James Carrington | DL | FR | 6'2" | 290 | Buena Park, CA |
| 65 | Jayden Jackson | DL | JR | 6'2" | 310 | Indianapolis, IN |
| 80 | Bergin Kysar | DL | SO | 6'3" | 255 | Edmond, OK |
| 90 | Trent Wilson | DL | FR | 6'3" | 305 | Washington, DC |
| 92 | Jacob Henry | DL | SO | 6'0" | 280 | Austin, TX |
| 94 | Kenny Ozowalu | DL | SO | 6'3" | 283 | San Antonio, TX |
| 95 | Daniel Norman | DL | FR | 6'3" | 250 | Hollywood, FL |
| 97 | Alex Shieldnight | DL | FR | 6'2" | 255 | Wagoner, OK |
| 98 | Jake Kreul | DL | FR | 6'3" | 240 | Orlando, FL |
| 7 | Taylor Heim | LB | JR | 6'5" | 225 | Yukon, OK |
| 10 | Kip Lewis | LB | SR | 6'1" | 226 | Carthage, TX |
| 11 | Kristan Moore | LB | FR | 6'1" | 229 | Selma, AL |
| 15 | Beau Jandreau | LB | FR | 6'0" | 210 | Chandler, AZ |
| 17 | Jacob Curry | LB | FR | 6'0" | 214 | Saint Augustine, FL |
| 18 | Cole Sullivan | LB | JR | 6'4" | 230 | Pittsburgh, PA |
| 26 | Elgee Webster | LB | FR | 5'11" | 215 | Franklin, TN |
| 28 | Marcus James | LB | FR | 6'3" | 225 | Oklahoma City, OK |
| 30 | Dane Bathurst | LB | FR | 6'4" | 233 | Carmel, IN |
| 38 | Owen Heinecke | LB | SR | 6'1" | 226 | Tulsa, OK |
| 41 | Barrett Travis | LB | FR | 6'0" | 215 | Oklahoma City, OK |
| 47 | James Nesta | LB | SO | 6'3" | 233 | Huntersville, NC |
| 2 | Omarion Robinson | DB | SO | 5'11" | 210 | Little Rock, AR |
| 3 | Reggie Powers III | DB | JR | 6'0" | 212 | Centerville, OH |
| 4 | Courtland Guillory | DB | SO | 6'0" | 188 | Houston, TX |
| 5 | Markel Ford | DB | FR | 6'1" | 205 | Mesquite, TX |
| 9 | Dakoda Fields | DB | SO | 6'1" | 205 | Compton, CA |
| 12 | Derrick Johnson II | DB | FR | 6'0" | 185 | Wildomar, CA |
| 13 | Niko Jandreau | DB | FR | 6'0" | 195 | Chandler, AZ |
| 14 | Trystan Haynes | DB | FR | 6'2" | 185 | Midwest City, OK |
| 20 | Casen Calmus | DB | JR | 5'10" | 205 | Brentwood, TN |
| 21 | Jeremiah Newcombe | DB | SO | 5'9" | 198 | Gilbert, AZ |
| 22 | Peyton Bowen | DB | SR | 6'0" | 200 | Denton, TX |
| 23 | Eli Bowen | DB | JR | 5'9" | 185 | Corinth, TX |
| 24 | Jacobe Johnson | DB | SR | 6'2" | 210 | Mustang, OK |
| 25 | Michael Boganowski | DB | JR | 6'2" | 212 | Junction City, KS |
| 27 | Preston Mickens | DB | SO | 5'10" | 195 | Southlake, TX |
| 31 | Reed DeQuasie | DB | JR | 6'1" | 205 | Choctaw, OK |
| 33 | Lebron Bauer | DB | FR | 6'0" | 188 | Allen, TX |
| 37 | Prince Ijioma | DB | JR | 6'2" | 199 | Little Elm, TX |
| 27 | Trace Rudd | PK | FR | 5'11" | 195 | Overland Park, KS |
| 29 | Tate Sandell | PK | SR | 5'9" | 178 | Port Neches, TX |
| 33 | Preston Tarpley | PK | FR | 6'0" | 199 | Gunter, TX |
| 35 | Liam Evans | PK | SO | 5'7" | 177 | Moore, OK |
| 43 | Grayson Miller | PK | SR | 5'9" | 193 | Edmond, OK |
| 87 | Jacob Ulrich | P | JR | 6'5" | 208 | Dacula, GA |
| 50 | Ben Anderson | LS | SR | 6'5" | 249 | Charlotte, NC |
| 54 | Seth Freeman | LS | FR | 6'0" | 238 | Moore, OK |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2026 projection
Oklahoma is in year 5 under Brent Venables, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are defensive, led by 1st at stuffing runs at the line. The way in is 107th at staying out of the backfield.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+0.3%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −27.7% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Oklahoma has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensegetting stopped at the line#1projected
- Defensefirst and second down#2projected
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss#2projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#107projected
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 10 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 3.17#58
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 1.22 / 0.67
- Power / stuff (off)
- 33.3% / 23.9%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 23.9%#20
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 17.1% / 6.8%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 0.06#72 | 0.26#62 | 0.37#98 |
| Defense | -0.36#11 | 0.22#93 | 0.03#20 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.3971st
- Defense EPA/play allowed-0.2594th
- Offense success rate55%78th
- Defense success rate allowed34%59th
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs57%76th
- Offense success — passing downs46%80th
- Defense success allowed — standard downs40%59th
- Defense success allowed — passing downs18%80th
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness1.245th
- Defense explosiveness allowed0.9488th
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs1.158th
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs1.836th
Trenches
- Offense line yards2.937th
- Defense line yards allowed1.689th
- Offense highlight yards0.8245th
- Defense highlight yards allowed1.618th
- Offense power success0.5725th
- Defense power success allowed0.0099th
- Offense stuff rate0.2418th
- Defense stuff rate0.2982nd
Third down
- Third down conversion55%74th
- Third down distance faced4.098th
- Third down conversion allowed17%89th
- Third down distance forced7.558th
Halves
- Net success rate — first half0.1763rd
- Net success rate — second half0.2072nd
Drives
- Points per drive4.082nd
- Points per drive allowed-0.6499th
- Average starting field position4399th
- Opponent starting field position3225th
- Available yards gained66%80th
- Available yards allowed20%95th
- Scoring opportunities per drive91%75th
- Scoring opportunities allowed45%97th
- Points per scoring opportunity4.485th
- Points allowed per opportunity0.0099th
- Three-and-out rate18%73rd
- Three-and-outs forced36%76th
Roster
- Returning usage75%89th
- Returning EPA18171st
- Team talent composite85188th
- Recruiting class rank15.090th
- Recruiting class points25390th
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Pass efficiency edge: 0.332 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes primarily from the front seven.
Season Signature
1-1 record through 2 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
What a possession is worth · 11 drives
Play-calling identity
Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.
- Pass rate
- 40.6%
- Expected, given the spots
- 45.0%
- Over expected
- -4.4
- Fourth down vs peers
- -20
- Fourth down vs the model
- -100
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. Oklahoma is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Oklahoma in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 100% | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 2025 | 10-3 | 6-2 | 77% | 8.7 | +1.3 |
| 2024 | 6-7 | 2-6 | 46% | 5.0 | +1.0 |
| 2023 | 10-3 | 7-2 | 77% | 10.9 | -0.9 |
| 2022 | 6-7 | 3-6 | 46% | 7.3 | -1.3 |
| 2021 | 11-2 | 7-2 | 85% | 8.4 | +2.6 |
| 2020 | 9-2 | 7-2 | 82% | 9.0 | -0.0 |
| 2019 | 12-2 | 9-1 | 86% | 11.5 | +0.5 |
| 2018 | 12-2 | 9-1 | 86% | 11.5 | +0.5 |
| 2017 | 12-2 | 9-1 | 86% | 12.4 | -0.4 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
1-0 so far, projected to finish 7.7-4.4. Top-four bye in 11%. Wins the SEC in 5.6%.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count. Better than even up to 3.
Win out and it is 100%. Running the table settles it.
up 5.7 points since preseason — won 51-0 over UTEP against an expected margin of +41, so +10.5 against the number.
- At 3 losses they are 67% where the average SEC team is 41%.
- The SEC takes 3.83 bids in an average season, and four or more in 65%.
Oklahoma’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk6vs Texas36.7
- wk4at Georgia36.3
- wk12vs Texas A&M33.4
- wk10at Florida33.3
- wk2at Michigan30.4
- wk11vs Ole Miss30.3
Who to root for
Games Oklahoma is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk13Georgia Tech over Georgia2.5
- wk4USC over Oregon2.4
- wk7Auburn over Georgia2.4
- wk3Arkansas over Georgia2.4
- wk12Arkansas over Texas2.1
- wk10South Carolina over Texas A&M2.0
SEC
0-0 in league play, projected 5.1-3.96 of 16 by title oddsThe SEC sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 48% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk4Oklahoma at Georgia12.0
- wk6Texas at Oklahoma11.5
- wk10Oklahoma at Florida8.4
- wk12Texas A&M at Oklahoma8.0
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole SEC race →
If not the playoff, then
Oklahoma is 1-0 and needs 5 more wins from 11 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 1.3% they go with five wins, as a 5-7 fill-in — which in reality is decided by academic progress rate, not by anything modelled here.
- ReliaQuest Bowl8.3%
- Citrus Bowl8.2%
- Gator Bowl8.0%
- Duke's Mayo Bowl7.4%
- Music City Bowl6.9%
- Texas Bowl5.9%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 14 have sent Oklahoma a player since 2010 — 38 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Oklahoma's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.