Florida State vs. Boston College: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FSUTeam statsBC
- Q3 0:13BCDarius Wade 1 Yd Run (Colton Lichtenberg Kick)3–35
- Q3 11:00BCAJ Dillon 2 Yd Run (Colton Lichtenberg Kick)3–28
- Q2 0:44FSURicky Aguayo 36 Yd Field Goal 3–21
- Q2 6:48BCAnthony Brown 4 Yd Run (Colton Lichtenberg Kick)0–21
- Q2 10:10BCTommy Sweeney 11 Yd pass from Anthony Brown (Colton Lichtenberg Kick)0–14
- Q1 7:55BCKobay White 34 Yd pass from Jeff Smith (Colton Lichtenberg Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassJames Blackman 11/26, 102 YDS, 1 INT
- RushCam Akers 18 CAR, 42 YDS
- RecNyqwan Murray 3 REC, 102 YDS
- PassAnthony Brown Jr. 6/20, 54 YDS, 1 TD
- RushAJ Dillon 33 CAR, 149 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKobay White 2 REC, 46 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBC up 32 entering the 4th quarter. Across 373 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 10:10BC +22%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Tommy Sweeney for 11 yds for a TD, (Colton Lichtenberg KICK)
- Q1 7:55BC +19%
Jeff Smith pass complete to Kobay White for 34 yds for a TD, (Colton Lichtenberg KICK)
- Q2 6:48BC +12%
Anthony Brown run for 4 yds for a TD, (Colton Lichtenberg KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Florida State vs. Boston College?
Florida State 3, Boston College 35.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked FSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| FSU | BC | |
|---|---|---|
| 213 | Total yards | 329 |
| 149 | Passing yards | 88 |
| 64 | Rushing yards | 241 |
| 10 | First downs | 19 |
| 4-14 | 3rd down | 6-16 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 2-4 |
| 12/27 | Comp/Att | 7/21 |
| 5.5 | Yards per pass | 4.2 |
| 2.2 | Yards per rush | 4.4 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 7-71 | Penalties | 1-10 |
| 24:45 | Possession | 35:15 |
Costliest call
Q4 13:29 FSU punt on 4th & 1 at FSU 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.62 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q3 0:13BCDarius Wade 1 Yd Run (Colton Lichtenberg Kick)3–35
- Q3 11:00BCAJ Dillon 2 Yd Run (Colton Lichtenberg Kick)3–28
- Q2 0:44FSURicky Aguayo 36 Yd Field Goal 3–21
- Q2 6:48BCAnthony Brown 4 Yd Run (Colton Lichtenberg Kick)0–21
- Q2 10:10BCTommy Sweeney 11 Yd pass from Anthony Brown (Colton Lichtenberg Kick)0–14
- Q1 7:55BCKobay White 34 Yd pass from Jeff Smith (Colton Lichtenberg Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BC Elo 1513, FSU Elo 1697 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BC +5 (38% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2017
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#9 of 107 in 2017 by biggest miss · #74 of 126 in 2017 by longest odds.
The 2017 upset archive →Florida State leads 16–6 · 36% have been one-possession games
| FSU | BC | |
|---|---|---|
| +10.9 (#30) | CORE overall | +11.0 (#29) |
| +1 / -10 | offense / defense | -0 / -11 |
| 1.81 | points / drive | 1.74 |
| 1.88 | allowed / drive | 1.59 |
| 33% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| -1 | pass over expected | -10 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →