Auburn vs. Arkansas: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
AUBTeam statsARK
- Q4 14:35ARKIsaac TeSlaa 11 Yd pass from Jacolby Criswell (Cam Little Kick)48–10
- Q3 0:14AUBBrian Battie 7 Yd Run (Alex McPherson Kick)48–3
- Q3 7:08AUBRivaldo Fairweather 11 Yd pass from Payton Thorne (Alex McPherson Kick)41–3
- Q3 9:26AUBJa'Varrius Johnson 14 Yd pass from Payton Thorne (Alex McPherson Kick)34–3
- Q2 0:00AUBAlex McPherson 31 Yd Field Goal 27–3
- Q2 1:11AUBAlex McPherson 39 Yd Field Goal 24–3
- Q1 1:54ARKCam Little 39 Yd Field Goal 21–3
- Q1 6:28AUBRivaldo Fairweather 11 Yd pass from Payton Thorne (Alex McPherson Kick)21–0
- Q1 10:44AUBKeionte Scott 74 Yd Punt Return (Alex McPherson Kick)14–0
- Q1 12:37AUBPayton Thorne 12 Yd Run (Alex McPherson Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- ARK played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and AUB did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.6 vs 3rd & 4.5
- PassPayton Thorne 12/20, 163 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushJarquez Hunter 16 CAR, 109 YDS
- RecJa'Varrius Johnson 3 REC, 53 YDS, 1 TD
- PassKJ Jefferson 10/16, 116 YDS
- RushJacolby Criswell 6 CAR, 64 YDS
- RecIsaiah Sategna III 1 REC, 35 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsAUB up 45 entering the 4th quarter. Across 102 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 12:37AUB +18%
Payton Thorne run for 12 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)
- Q1 10:44AUB +16%
Max Fletcher punt for 48 yds, Keionte Scott returns for 74 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)
- Q1 6:28AUB +12%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 11 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Auburn vs. Arkansas?
Auburn 48, Arkansas 10.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ARK, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| AUB | ARK | |
|---|---|---|
| 517 | Total yards | 255 |
| 163 | Passing yards | 135 |
| 354 | Rushing yards | 120 |
| 32 | First downs | 10 |
| 7-12 | 3rd down | 1-12 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 12/21 | Comp/Att | 12/20 |
| 7.8 | Yards per pass | 6.8 |
| 6.4 | Yards per rush | 3.8 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 2-10 | Penalties | 4-35 |
| 38:15 | Possession | 21:45 |
Costliest call
Q1 9:05 ARK punt on 4th & 1 at ARK 21. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.90 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 14:35ARKIsaac TeSlaa 11 Yd pass from Jacolby Criswell (Cam Little Kick)48–10
- Q3 0:14AUBBrian Battie 7 Yd Run (Alex McPherson Kick)48–3
- Q3 7:08AUBRivaldo Fairweather 11 Yd pass from Payton Thorne (Alex McPherson Kick)41–3
- Q3 9:26AUBJa'Varrius Johnson 14 Yd pass from Payton Thorne (Alex McPherson Kick)34–3
- Q2 0:00AUBAlex McPherson 31 Yd Field Goal 27–3
- Q2 1:11AUBAlex McPherson 39 Yd Field Goal 24–3
- Q1 1:54ARKCam Little 39 Yd Field Goal 21–3
- Q1 6:28AUBRivaldo Fairweather 11 Yd pass from Payton Thorne (Alex McPherson Kick)21–0
- Q1 10:44AUBKeionte Scott 74 Yd Punt Return (Alex McPherson Kick)14–0
- Q1 12:37AUBPayton Thorne 12 Yd Run (Alex McPherson Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ARK Elo 1600, AUB Elo 1590 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ARK -2.8 (59% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#7 of 117 in 2023 by biggest miss · #100 of 127 in 2023 by longest odds.
The 2023 upset archive →Auburn leads 21–13–1 · 31% have been one-possession games
| AUB | ARK | |
|---|---|---|
| +0.4 (#59) | CORE overall | +0.2 (#61) |
| -4 / -5 | offense / defense | -5 / -6 |
| 2.00 | points / drive | 1.60 |
| 1.98 | allowed / drive | 1.99 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 33% |
| -7 | pass over expected | -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →