Ohio State vs. Purdue: Final Score, Recap & Advanced Stats

Ohio State7-0

Purdue3-3

▸

Final

Ross-Ade StadiumConference game

	1	2	3	4	T
OSU	0	3	3	14	20
PUR	7	7	7	28	49

OSUTeam statsPUR

546Total yards539

470Pass378

76Rush161

31First downs24

11-223rd down6-15

1Turnovers0

31:17Possession28:43

Q4 2:08PURMarkus Bailey 41 Yd Interception Return (Spencer Evans Kick)20–49
Q4 3:37PURRondale Moore 43 Yd pass from David Blough (Spencer Evans Kick)20–42
Q4 4:40OSUTerry McLaurin 34 Yd pass from Dwayne Haskins (Blake Haubeil Kick)20–35
Q4 6:46PURD.J. Knox 40 Yd Run (Spencer Evans Kick)13–35
Q4 9:36OSUJohnnie Dixon 32 Yd pass from Dwayne Haskins (Blake Haubeil Kick)13–28
Q4 11:39PURD.J. Knox 42 Yd Run (Spencer Evans Kick)6–28
Q3 8:36PURD.J. Knox 1 Yd Run (Spencer Evans Kick)6–21
Q3 12:25OSUBlake Haubeil 23 Yd Field Goal 6–14
Q2 0:27PURRondale Moore 9 Yd pass from David Blough (Spencer Evans Kick)3–14
Q2 14:14OSUBlake Haubeil 24 Yd Field Goal 3–7
Q1 1:10PURIsaac Zico 13 Yd pass from David Blough (Spencer Evans Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Model line

OSU −12.4

market OSU −12.5

Biggest swing

PUR +25%

Q3 8:36

Against the number

PUR covered

line OSU −12.5

What the numbers say

PUR played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and OSU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.3 vs 3rd & 6.1

PUR favored ↑50%OSU favored ↓

GridpexPUR 100%

Closing line

OSU −12.5

Closing total

65.5

Model line

OSU −12.4

Actual result

OSU 20 – 49 PUR

consensus, liveOSU −12.5total 65.5

Ohio State

PassDwayne Haskins 49/73, 470 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
RushMike Weber 9 CAR, 45 YDS
RecKJ Hill Jr. 9 REC, 105 YDS

Purdue

PassDavid Blough 25/43, 378 YDS, 3 TD
RushD.J. Knox 16 CAR, 128 YDS, 3 TD
RecRondale Moore 12 REC, 170 YDS, 2 TD

19.8sper snap · faster the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

175

Points / snap

0.39

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

PUR up 15 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,206 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

95%

PUR went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WArkansas vs Kent State28-6 WFlorida State vs Boston College31-29 WSouth Dakota vs Lamar35-6 WFlorida State vs Virginia Tech39-17 WMissouri vs South Carolina34-12

Q3 8:36PUR +25%
D.J. Knox run for 1 yd for a TD (Spencer Evans KICK)
Q2 0:27PUR +25%
David Blough pass complete to Rondale Moore for 9 yds for a TD, (Spencer Evans KICK)
Q1 1:10PUR +20%
David Blough pass complete to Isaac Zico for 13 yds for a TD, (Spencer Evans KICK)
Q3 4:42PUR +9%
Joe Schopper punt for 47 yds, K.J. Hill returns for 16 yds to the Prdue 37
Q3 12:25OSU +8%
Blake Haubeil 23 yd FG GOOD
Q3 12:25PUR +8%
David Blough pass complete to Jackson Anthrop for 15 yds to the OhSt 16 for a 1ST down

FAQ

What was the final score of Ohio State vs. Purdue?

Ohio State 20, Purdue 49.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

No — the model picked OSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.

OSU

PUR

45%

Success rate

43%

0.13

EPA / pass

0.51

-0.00

EPA / rush

0.35

43%

Early-down success

40%

49%

Pass success

42%

32%

Rush success

44%

13%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

21%

16%

Stuffed rush rate

33%

75%

Pass rate

64%

6.1

Avg 3rd-down distance

8.3

OSU

6.1 yards to go on 3rd down

100 scrimmage snaps

PUR

8.3 yards to go on 3rd down

75 scrimmage snaps

OSU		PUR
546	Total yards	539
470	Passing yards	378
76	Rushing yards	161
31	First downs	24
11-22	3rd down	6-15
2-3	4th down	2-2
49/73	Comp/Att	25/43
6.4	Yards per pass	8.8
3.0	Yards per rush	5.6
1	Turnovers	0
10-86	Penalties	7-95
31:17	Possession	28:43

Model prediction

how the number is built

Power rating (Elo)

PUR 1686

OSU 2057

Projected spread

PUR +12.4

incl. home edge

Model pick

OSU

78% to win

Market spread

PUR +12.5

sportsbook line

Model vs market

Agrees

aligned w/ market

Win prob: model / mkt

22%

PUR (no market)

Our model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (PUR Elo 1686, OSU Elo 2057 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects PUR +12.4 (22% to win), essentially in line with the market.

Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).

Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation

Season form — 2018

nationally ranked

OSU2018 season · national rank shownPUR

534.32nd

Total yards / game

443.929th

6.611th

Yards / play

6.418th

358.62nd

Passing yards / game

307.510th

175.756th

Rushing yards / game

136.4104th

46.3%17th

3rd down %

38.3%75th

403.572nd

Yards allowed / game

456.0115th

32.7%15th

3rd down % allowed

36.0%38th

+628th

Turnover margin

-6107th

8.2124th

Penalties / game

6.277th

The matchup, in context

series history + adjusted profiles

Purdue were +12.5 — a 22% shot

#5 of 109 in 2018 by biggest miss · #29 of 122 in 2018 by longest odds · #1 of 64 in 2018 by biggest poll gap.

The 2018 upset archive →

The series61 meetings since 1919

Ohio State leads 44–15–2 · Ohio State has won 4 straight · 33% have been one-possession games

Opponent-adjusted profile2018

OSU		PUR
+19.0 (#10)	CORE overall	+1.3 (#56)
+15 / -4	offense / defense	+4 / +3
2.94	points / drive	2.29
1.71	allowed / drive	2.36
20%	three-and-outs	23%
+8	pass over expected	+16

Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.

CORE ratings →Drive efficiency →Play-calling →

Pro

Key matchups

The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.

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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →

OSUTeam statsPUR

Scoring plays

How the model called it

What the numbers say

Win probability

How the line closed

Leaders

Tempo

This exact spot, historically

Fourth downs

What decided it

FAQ

What was the final score of Ohio State vs. Purdue?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Situational splits

Team stats

Fourth downs

Drive chart

Scoring plays

Model prediction

Season form — 2018

The matchup, in context

Key matchups

Ohio State vs. Purdue: Final Score & Recap

OSUTeam statsPUR

How the model called it

What the numbers say

What was the final score of Ohio State vs. Purdue?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Key matchups