Florida vs. Oklahoma: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FLATeam statsOU
- Q4 3:18FLAJordan Pouncey 27 Yd pass from Anthony Richardson (Chris Howard Kick)20–55
- Q4 6:11OUMarcus Major 46 Yd Run (Stephen Johnson Kick)13–55
- Q4 10:30OUCharleston Rambo 20 Yd pass from Spencer Rattler (Gabe Brkic Kick)13–48
- Q3 3:58OURhamondre Stevenson 15 Yd Run (Gabe Brkic Kick)13–41
- Q3 7:51OUGabe Brkic 20 Yd Field Goal 13–34
- Q2 0:16OUSpencer Rattler 1 Yd Run (Gabe Brkic Kick)13–31
- Q2 4:08OUTheo Wease 36 Yd pass from Spencer Rattler (Gabe Brkic Kick)13–24
- Q2 6:05FLAEvan McPherson 35 Yd Field Goal 13–17
- Q2 8:08FLAEmory Jones 1 Yd Run (Evan McPherson Kick)10–17
- Q1 0:31FLAEvan McPherson 21 Yd Field Goal 3–17
- Q1 8:08OUGabe Brkic 43 Yd Field Goal 0–17
- Q1 12:22OUTre Norwood 45 Yd Interception Return (Gabe Brkic Kick)0–14
- Q1 12:59OUMarvin Mims 27 Yd pass from Spencer Rattler (Gabe Brkic Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- FLA played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and OU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 6.8 vs 3rd & 4.0
- PassKyle Trask 16/28, 158 YDS, 3 INT
- RushEmory Jones 10 CAR, 60 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTrent Whittemore 2 REC, 47 YDS
- PassSpencer Rattler 14/23, 247 YDS, 3 TD
- RushRhamondre Stevenson 18 CAR, 186 YDS, 1 TD
- RecSeth McGowan 3 REC, 70 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsOU up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 465 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 4:08OU +17%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Theo Wease for 36 yds for a TD, (Gabe Brkic KICK)
- Q1 12:59OU +16%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Marvin Mims for 27 yds for a TD, (Gabe Brkic KICK)
- Q2 8:08FLA +14%
Emory Jones run for 1 yd for a TD, (Evan McPherson KICK)
- Q1 12:22OU +13%
Kyle Trask pass intercepted for a TD Tre Norwood return for 45 yds for a TD, (Gabe Brkic KICK)
- Q2 0:16OU +9%
Spencer Rattler run for 1 yd for a TD, (Gabe Brkic KICK)
- Q2 6:05FLA +8%
Evan McPherson 35 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Florida vs. Oklahoma?
Florida 20, Oklahoma 55.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (OU) was correct.
| FLA | OU | |
|---|---|---|
| 521 | Total yards | 684 |
| 271 | Passing yards | 249 |
| 250 | Rushing yards | 435 |
| 28 | First downs | 25 |
| 4-13 | 3rd down | 4-9 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 25/45 | Comp/Att | 15/25 |
| 6.0 | Yards per pass | 10.0 |
| 6.4 | Yards per rush | 10.9 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 8-61 | Penalties | 4-40 |
| 33:20 | Possession | 26:40 |
Costliest call
Q3 7:51 OU field goal on 4th & 3 at FLA 3. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.83 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:18FLAJordan Pouncey 27 Yd pass from Anthony Richardson (Chris Howard Kick)20–55
- Q4 6:11OUMarcus Major 46 Yd Run (Stephen Johnson Kick)13–55
- Q4 10:30OUCharleston Rambo 20 Yd pass from Spencer Rattler (Gabe Brkic Kick)13–48
- Q3 3:58OURhamondre Stevenson 15 Yd Run (Gabe Brkic Kick)13–41
- Q3 7:51OUGabe Brkic 20 Yd Field Goal 13–34
- Q2 0:16OUSpencer Rattler 1 Yd Run (Gabe Brkic Kick)13–31
- Q2 4:08OUTheo Wease 36 Yd pass from Spencer Rattler (Gabe Brkic Kick)13–24
- Q2 6:05FLAEvan McPherson 35 Yd Field Goal 13–17
- Q2 8:08FLAEmory Jones 1 Yd Run (Evan McPherson Kick)10–17
- Q1 0:31FLAEvan McPherson 21 Yd Field Goal 3–17
- Q1 8:08OUGabe Brkic 43 Yd Field Goal 0–17
- Q1 12:22OUTre Norwood 45 Yd Interception Return (Gabe Brkic Kick)0–14
- Q1 12:59OUMarvin Mims 27 Yd pass from Spencer Rattler (Gabe Brkic Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (OU Elo 1963, FLA Elo 1899 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects OU -2.6 (58% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2020
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#6 of 97 in 2020 by biggest miss · #83 of 107 in 2020 by longest odds.
The 2020 upset archive →| FLA | OU | |
|---|---|---|
| +14.9 (#17) | CORE overall | +24.9 (#4) |
| +14 / -1 | offense / defense | +13 / -11 |
| 3.27 | points / drive | 3.23 |
| 2.47 | allowed / drive | 1.82 |
| 15% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| +15 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →