Oklahoma State vs. UCF: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
OKSTTeam statsUCF
- Q4 9:00UCFRJ Harvey 2 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick)3–45
- Q3 4:09UCFKobe Hudson 14 Yd pass from John Rhys Plumlee (Colton Boomer Kick)3–38
- Q3 8:56UCFRJ Harvey 92 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick)3–31
- Q3 10:00OKSTAlex Hale 25 Yd Field Goal 3–24
- Q2 10:35UCFKobe Hudson 75 Yd pass from John Rhys Plumlee (Colton Boomer Kick)0–24
- Q2 14:04UCFColton Boomer 30 Yd Field Goal 0–17
- Q1 9:08UCFKobe Hudson 7 Yd pass from John Rhys Plumlee (Colton Boomer Kick)0–14
- Q1 11:50UCFRJ Harvey 1 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassAlan Bowman 19/36, 225 YDS, 3 INT
- RushOllie Gordon II 12 CAR, 25 YDS
- RecRashod Owens 6 REC, 85 YDS
- PassJohn Rhys Plumlee 11/18, 299 YDS, 3 TD
- RushRJ Harvey 24 CAR, 206 YDS, 3 TD
- RecJavon Baker 4 REC, 112 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUCF up 35 entering the 4th quarter. Across 274 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 11:50UCF +18%
RJ Harvey 1 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick)
- Q1 9:08UCF +16%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 7 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)
- Q2 10:35UCF +8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 75 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)
- Q2 14:04UCF +6%
Colton Boomer 30 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Oklahoma State vs. UCF?
Oklahoma State 3, UCF 45.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked OKST, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| OKST | UCF | |
|---|---|---|
| 277 | Total yards | 592 |
| 225 | Passing yards | 299 |
| 52 | Rushing yards | 293 |
| 15 | First downs | 21 |
| 2-12 | 3rd down | 6-12 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 19/39 | Comp/Att | 12/19 |
| 5.8 | Yards per pass | 15.7 |
| 2.1 | Yards per rush | 5.7 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-45 | Penalties | 4-40 |
| 25:15 | Possession | 34:45 |
Costliest call
Q2 11:49 OKST punt on 4th & 2 at midfield. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.01 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 9:00UCFRJ Harvey 2 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick)3–45
- Q3 4:09UCFKobe Hudson 14 Yd pass from John Rhys Plumlee (Colton Boomer Kick)3–38
- Q3 8:56UCFRJ Harvey 92 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick)3–31
- Q3 10:00OKSTAlex Hale 25 Yd Field Goal 3–24
- Q2 10:35UCFKobe Hudson 75 Yd pass from John Rhys Plumlee (Colton Boomer Kick)0–24
- Q2 14:04UCFColton Boomer 30 Yd Field Goal 0–17
- Q1 9:08UCFKobe Hudson 7 Yd pass from John Rhys Plumlee (Colton Boomer Kick)0–14
- Q1 11:50UCFRJ Harvey 1 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UCF Elo 1507, OKST Elo 1629 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UCF +2.5 (45% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#6 of 117 in 2023 by biggest miss · #99 of 127 in 2023 by longest odds · #12 of 51 in 2023 by biggest poll gap.
The 2023 upset archive →| OKST | UCF | |
|---|---|---|
| +4.5 (#47) | CORE overall | +11.4 (#29) |
| +3 / -1 | offense / defense | +9 / -2 |
| 2.19 | points / drive | 2.71 |
| 2.32 | allowed / drive | 2.42 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 20% |
| +10 | pass over expected | -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →