New Mexico State vs. Liberty: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NMSUTeam statsLIB
- Q4 0:15LIBJaivian Lofton 6 Yd pass from Kaidon Salter (Jason Stricker Kick)49–14
- Q4 6:23NMSUDiego Pavia 3 Yd Run (Ethan Albertson Kick)49–7
- Q3 5:28NMSUJamoni Jones 49 Yd Run (Ethan Albertson Kick)42–7
- Q3 8:03NMSUDiego Pavia 2 Yd Run (Ethan Albertson Kick)35–7
- Q2 0:43NMSUKordell David 42 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Ethan Albertson Kick)28–7
- Q2 6:29NMSUStar Thomas 39 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Ethan Albertson Kick)21–7
- Q2 7:16NMSUDiego Pavia 2 Yd Run (Ethan Albertson Kick)14–7
- Q1 0:03LIBT.J. Green 1 Yd Run (Nick Brown Kick)7–7
- Q1 6:11NMSUJonathan Brady 34 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Ethan Albertson Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassDiego Pavia 16/21, 214 YDS, 3 TD
- RushDiego Pavia 20 CAR, 125 YDS, 3 TD
- RecJonathan Brady 4 REC, 52 YDS, 1 TD
- PassKaidon Salter 12/17, 101 YDS, 1 TD
- RushT.J. Green 9 CAR, 55 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDeMario Douglas 7 REC, 78 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsNMSU up 35 entering the 4th quarter. Across 276 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 6:29NMSU +24%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Star Thomas for 39 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK)
- Q2 0:43NMSU +22%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Kordell David for 42 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK)
- Q2 7:16NMSU +17%
Diego Pavia run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK)
- Q3 8:03NMSU +15%
Diego Pavia run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK)
- Q1 6:11NMSU +10%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 34 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK)
- Q1 0:03LIB +10%
T.J. Green run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Brown KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of New Mexico State vs. Liberty?
New Mexico State 49, Liberty 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked LIB, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| NMSU | LIB | |
|---|---|---|
| 428 | Total yards | 315 |
| 214 | Passing yards | 207 |
| 214 | Rushing yards | 108 |
| 23 | First downs | 21 |
| 7-12 | 3rd down | 6-13 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 16/21 | Comp/Att | 25/39 |
| 10.2 | Yards per pass | 5.3 |
| 5.0 | Yards per rush | 3.1 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 4-25 | Penalties | 8-85 |
| 35:33 | Possession | 24:27 |
Costliest call
Q4 10:17 LIB go for it on 4th & 12 at LIB 40. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.79 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:15LIBJaivian Lofton 6 Yd pass from Kaidon Salter (Jason Stricker Kick)49–14
- Q4 6:23NMSUDiego Pavia 3 Yd Run (Ethan Albertson Kick)49–7
- Q3 5:28NMSUJamoni Jones 49 Yd Run (Ethan Albertson Kick)42–7
- Q3 8:03NMSUDiego Pavia 2 Yd Run (Ethan Albertson Kick)35–7
- Q2 0:43NMSUKordell David 42 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Ethan Albertson Kick)28–7
- Q2 6:29NMSUStar Thomas 39 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Ethan Albertson Kick)21–7
- Q2 7:16NMSUDiego Pavia 2 Yd Run (Ethan Albertson Kick)14–7
- Q1 0:03LIBT.J. Green 1 Yd Run (Nick Brown Kick)7–7
- Q1 6:11NMSUJonathan Brady 34 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Ethan Albertson Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (LIB Elo 1612, NMSU Elo 1038 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects LIB -25.4 (94% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2022
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#1 of 108 in 2022 by biggest miss · #2 of 132 in 2022 by longest odds.
The 2022 upset archive →Liberty leads 7–2 · Liberty has won 4 straight · 56% have been one-possession games
| NMSU | LIB | |
|---|---|---|
| -18.8 (#122) | CORE overall | +1.4 (#62) |
| -10 / +9 | offense / defense | -3 / -5 |
| 1.81 | points / drive | 2.05 |
| 2.46 | allowed / drive | 1.88 |
| 35% | three-and-outs | 24% |
| -8 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →