#2Diego Pavia

QB·New Mexico State·2025 2024 20235.1 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Diego Pavia is a 3-year Dual-Threat QB for New Mexico State. Diego's 2023 season ranks in the 13th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 528 plays — a developing rate for the QB. Diego's production has improved each season, a positive development trajectory.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Diego Pavia's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Passing

221/366 Comp/Att2973 Pass yards26 Pass TD9 INT60.4% Comp %

Rushing

923 Rush yards7 Rush TD176 Carries5.2 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs QB peers

Efficiency13
Volume100
Dual-Threat97
Consistency85
Clutch89

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)13th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency85th %ile · above avg

Career trajectory:↑ Rising

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸Career trajectory is upward — WEPA value has improved season over season.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸8 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.13 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.90 EPA/play in Wk 14 vs Liberty (SP+ 8).

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗

Contributor

Rotational contributor. Smaller collective or local deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
0	vsMassachusetts	L30-41	-17.5	16/27	248	3	2	9.5	20	0	—
1	vsWestern Illinois	W58-21	—	16/20	317	2	0	80.0	-8	0	0.27
2	@Liberty	L17-33	8.0	12/21	150	1	2	76.6	63	0	0.42
3	@New Mexico	W27-17	-16.5	9/14	203	2	0	84.2	96	0	0.74
4	@Hawai'i	L17-20	-16.4	9/15	155	2	0	83.2	97	0	0.60
6	vsFlorida International	W34-17	-21.2	20/31	256	2	1	58.8	46	1	0.47
7	vsSam Houston	W27-13	-13.8	20/36	286	2	0	92.3	115	1	0.46
8	@UTEP	W28-7	-16.2	15/25	186	2	0	78.7	96	2	0.44
9	@Louisiana Tech	W27-24	-12.9	10/19	95	1	0	54.4	67	1	0.14
10	vsMiddle Tennessee	W13-7	-9.5	16/31	220	0	1	33.3	67	0	0.16
11	@Western Kentucky	W38-29	-2.0	14/24	141	2	0	69.4	44	0	0.34
12	@Auburn	W31-10	7.6	19/28	201	3	0	89.1	35	0	0.45
13	vsJacksonville State	W20-17	-1.6	23/34	269	1	2	56.4	68	0	0.18
14	@Liberty	L35-49	8.0	11/16	188	3	0	96.3	45	1	0.90
20	vsFresno State	L10-37	2.5	11/25	58	0	1	13.3	72	1	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

58.7%

Passing plays

93.3%

Rushing plays

31.1%

Standard downs

52.1%

Passing downs

75.4%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.29
Passing downs: 0.54
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.38 / 0.38

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2023 — 2025 · 41 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2023	New Mexico State	5.1	0.430	—	234.5
2024	Vanderbilt	6.9	0.444	+0.01	217.9
2025	Vanderbilt	13.6	0.534	+0.09	282.6

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.