#2Diego Pavia

QB·Vanderbilt·2025 2024 20236.9 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Diego Pavia is a 3-year Dual-Threat QB for Vanderbilt. Diego's 2024 season ranks in the 30th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 486 plays — a developing rate for the QB. Diego's production has improved each season, a positive development trajectory.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Diego Pavia's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Passing

177/298 Comp/Att2293 Pass yards20 Pass TD4 INT59.4% Comp %

Rushing

800 Rush yards8 Rush TD193 Carries4.1 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs QB peers

Efficiency30
Volume100
Dual-Threat68
Consistency82
Clutch96

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)30th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency82th %ile · above avg

Career trajectory:↑ Rising

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸Career trajectory is upward — WEPA value has improved season over season.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.21 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.60 EPA/play in Wk 6 vs Alabama (SP+ 25).

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsVirginia Tech	W34-27	10.0	12/16	190	2	0	82.6	104	1	0.49
2	vsAlcorn State	W55-0	—	10/13	83	0	0	53.0	51	1	0.25
3	@Georgia State	L32-36	-17.9	18/33	270	2	0	43.3	40	0	0.24
4	@Missouri	L27-30	14.0	14/23	178	2	0	85.3	84	0	0.27
6	vsAlabama	W40-35	25.0	16/20	252	2	0	95.9	56	0	0.60
7	@Kentucky	W20-13	5.5	15/18	143	2	1	87.4	53	0	0.26
8	vsBall State	W24-14	-19.8	17/31	275	1	0	61.9	82	1	0.50
9	vsTexas	L24-27	24.1	16/29	143	2	2	78.1	67	1	0.17
10	@Auburn	W17-7	9.5	9/22	143	2	0	44.2	26	0	0.14
11	vsSouth Carolina	L7-28	16.9	16/31	166	0	0	78.6	65	1	0.11
13	@LSU	L17-24	15.9	13/24	186	1	0	66.7	43	1	0.19
14	vsTennessee	L23-36	22.0	8/17	104	1	1	46.7	45	0	0.08
20	vsGeorgia Tech	W35-27	1.9	13/21	160	3	0	83.8	84	2	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

63.0%

Passing plays

97.8%

Rushing plays

38.2%

Standard downs

55.2%

Passing downs

78.4%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.18
Passing downs: 0.46
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.33 / 0.24

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2023 — 2025 · 41 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2023	New Mexico State	5.1	0.430	—	234.5
2024	Vanderbilt	6.9	0.444	+0.01	217.9
2025	Vanderbilt	13.6	0.534	+0.09	282.6

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.