Hawai'i vs. Nevada: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
HAWTeam statsNEV
- Q4 3:42HAWRobert Funkhouser 14 Yd pass from Justin Uahinui (Ryan Meskell Kick)54–3
- Q4 9:20HAWTeam Safety47–3
- Q3 2:57HAWCedric Byrd II 20 Yd pass from Cole McDonald (Ryan Meskell Kick)45–3
- Q3 11:02HAWJason-Matthew Sharsh 12 Yd pass from Cole McDonald (Ryan Meskell Kick)38–3
- Q2 0:02HAWRyan Meskell 44 Yd Field Goal 31–3
- Q2 0:36NEVBrandon Talton 36 Yd Field Goal 28–3
- Q2 5:33HAWMiles Reed 9 Yd Run (Ryan Meskell Kick)28–0
- Q2 9:11HAWJustice Augafa 2 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Ryan Meskell Kick)21–0
- Q2 10:40HAWCedric Byrd II 2 Yd pass from Cole McDonald (Ryan Meskell Kick)14–0
- Q1 8:17HAWCedric Byrd II 36 Yd pass from Cole McDonald (Ryan Meskell Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassCole McDonald 25/30, 312 YDS, 4 TD
- RushFred Holly III 11 CAR, 63 YDS
- RecJason-Matthew Sharsh 9 REC, 123 YDS, 1 TD
- PassCristian Solano 11/17, 59 YDS, 1 INT
- RushToa Taua 17 CAR, 72 YDS
- RecElijah Cooks 5 REC, 38 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsHAW up 42 entering the 4th quarter. Across 170 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 8:17HAW +19%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd II for 36 yds for a TD, (Ryan Meskell KICK) NEVADA Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined
- Q2 10:40HAW +18%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd II for 2 yds for a TD, (Ryan Meskell KICK)
- Q2 9:11HAW +11%
Quinton Conaway punt blocked by Andrew Choi blocked by Andrew Choi Justice Augafa return for 2 yds for a TD, (Ryan Meskell KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Hawai'i vs. Nevada?
Hawai'i 54, Nevada 3.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked NEV, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| HAW | NEV | |
|---|---|---|
| 512 | Total yards | 203 |
| 373 | Passing yards | 105 |
| 139 | Rushing yards | 98 |
| 26 | First downs | 16 |
| 5-9 | 3rd down | 4-14 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 0-3 |
| 31/36 | Comp/Att | 18/31 |
| 10.4 | Yards per pass | 3.4 |
| 5.1 | Yards per rush | 2.7 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 6-70 | Penalties | 10-78 |
| 31:12 | Possession | 28:48 |
Costliest call
Q4 15:00 HAW punt on 4th & 6 at NEV 48. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.15 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:42HAWRobert Funkhouser 14 Yd pass from Justin Uahinui (Ryan Meskell Kick)54–3
- Q4 9:20HAWTeam Safety47–3
- Q3 2:57HAWCedric Byrd II 20 Yd pass from Cole McDonald (Ryan Meskell Kick)45–3
- Q3 11:02HAWJason-Matthew Sharsh 12 Yd pass from Cole McDonald (Ryan Meskell Kick)38–3
- Q2 0:02HAWRyan Meskell 44 Yd Field Goal 31–3
- Q2 0:36NEVBrandon Talton 36 Yd Field Goal 28–3
- Q2 5:33HAWMiles Reed 9 Yd Run (Ryan Meskell Kick)28–0
- Q2 9:11HAWJustice Augafa 2 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Ryan Meskell Kick)21–0
- Q2 10:40HAWCedric Byrd II 2 Yd pass from Cole McDonald (Ryan Meskell Kick)14–0
- Q1 8:17HAWCedric Byrd II 36 Yd pass from Cole McDonald (Ryan Meskell Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NEV Elo 1271, HAW Elo 1265 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects NEV -2.6 (58% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2019
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#1 of 105 in 2019 by biggest miss · #98 of 124 in 2019 by longest odds.
The 2019 upset archive →Nevada leads 14–13 · Hawai'i has won 3 straight · 26% have been one-possession games
| HAW | NEV | |
|---|---|---|
| -3.7 (#73) | CORE overall | -14.4 (#109) |
| +7 / +11 | offense / defense | -9 / +6 |
| 2.70 | points / drive | 1.65 |
| 2.64 | allowed / drive | 2.59 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 37% |
| +17 | pass over expected | +6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →