Eastern Kentucky vs. Cincinnati: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Eastern Kentucky

0013

Cincinnati

▸0066

Final

Nippert Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
EAST	0	7	3	3	13
CIN	21	21	10	14	66

EASTTeam statsCIN

302Total yards667

177Pass438

125Rush229

15First downs30

3-113rd down10-14

3Turnovers1

28:14Possession31:46

Scoring plays

• Q4 4:37CINBarry Jackson Jr. 65 Yd pass from Brady Lichtenberg (Carter Brown Kick)13–66
• Q4 6:30EASTPatrick Nations 43 Yd Field Goal 13–59
• Q4 13:39CINBrady Lichtenberg 4 Yd Run (Carter Brown Kick)10–59
• Q3 2:42CINAaron Turner 6 Yd pass from Emory Jones (Carter Brown Kick)10–52
• Q3 8:12EASTPatrick Nations 42 Yd Field Goal 10–45
• Q3 13:21CINCarter Brown 46 Yd Field Goal 7–45
• Q2 0:49CINBraden Smith 48 Yd pass from Emory Jones (Carter Brown Kick)7–42
• Q2 5:08EASTHunter Brown 17 Yd pass from Parker McKinney (Patrick Nations Kick)7–35
• Q2 7:17CINEmory Jones 12 Yd Run (Carter Brown Kick)0–35
• Q2 11:47CINPayten Singletary 1 Yd pass from Emory Jones (Carter Brown Kick)0–28
• Q1 1:41CINEmory Jones 1 Yd Run (Carter Brown Kick)0–21
• Q1 6:52CINDee Wiggins 39 Yd pass from Emory Jones (Carter Brown Kick)0–14
• Q1 11:45CINXzavier Henderson 49 Yd pass from Emory Jones (Carter Brown Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

CIN −21.5

Against the number

CIN covered

line CIN −21.5

What the numbers say

• CIN played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and EAST did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.3 vs 3rd & 4.9

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

CIN 100%50%EAST 100%

Kickoff148 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

CIN (top)EAST (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: CIN 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

CIN −21.5

Closing total

58.0

Model line

—

Actual result

EAST 13 – 66 CIN

Leaders

Eastern Kentucky

• PassParker McKinney 13/24, 177 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
• RushJoshua Carter 7 CAR, 68 YDS
• RecJaden Smith 5 REC, 81 YDS

Cincinnati

• PassEmory Jones 19/23, 345 YDS, 5 TD
• RushCorey Kiner 13 CAR, 105 YDS
• RecXzavier Henderson 7 REC, 149 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

27.4sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

131

Points / snap

0.60

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

CIN up 42 entering the 4th quarter. Across 168 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

CIN went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WMemphis vs Bethune-Cookman56-14WWestern Carolina vs Charleston Southern77-28WYale vs Morgan State45-3WMonmouth vs Lehigh49-7WAlabama vs Chattanooga66-10

Fourth downs

12 calls

EAST gave up 0.6 points to the model on fourth down.EAST 6/7 · CIN 3/3 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Eastern Kentucky vs. Cincinnati?

Eastern Kentucky 13, Cincinnati 66.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (CIN) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

EAST

CIN

42%

Success rate

58%

0.19

EPA / pass

1.45

0.21

EPA / rush

0.32

44%

Early-down success

55%

38%

Pass success

67%

47%

Rush success

52%

14%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

13%

10%

Stuffed rush rate

0%

49%

Pass rate

42%

4.9

Avg 3rd-down distance

7.3

EAST

4.9 yards to go on 3rd down

59 scrimmage snaps

CIN

7.3 yards to go on 3rd down

72 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

EAST		CIN
302	Total yards	667
177	Passing yards	438
125	Rushing yards	229
15	First downs	30
3-11	3rd down	10-14
0-1	4th down	2-2
13/25	Comp/Att	23/27
7.1	Yards per pass	16.2
3.9	Yards per rush	5.2
3	Turnovers	1
7-42	Penalties	7-55
28:14	Possession	31:46

Fourth downs

12 calls

EAST

6/7 with the model

−0.6 pts · −0.0% win prob

CIN

3/3 with the model

nothing given up

Costliest call

Q1 5:27 EAST punt on 4th & 1 at EAST 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.62 points.

Every call, priced (12)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

EAST 3/13 scoring drives← own end zone →CIN 10/12 scoring drives

CINTD7 pl, 71 yds· own 29Q1

EASTPUNT4 pl, 24 yds· own 23Q1

CINTD5 pl, 87 yds· own 13Q1

EASTPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 25Q1

CINTD9 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q1

EASTINT8 pl, 42 yds· own 27Q1

CINTD4 pl, 77 yds· own 23Q2

EASTPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 18Q2

CINTD8 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q2

EASTTD4 pl, 74 yds· own 26Q2

CINTD10 pl, 84 yds· own 16Q2

EASTEND2 pl, 10 yds· own 25Q2

EASTFUM2 pl, -5 yds· own 25Q3

CINFG4 pl, -9 yds· opp 20Q3

EASTDOWNS7 pl, 48 yds· own 27Q3

CINFUM1 pl, -6 yds· own 25Q3

EASTFG4 pl, -7 yds· opp 19Q3

CINTD11 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3

EASTINT5 pl, 18 yds· own 10Q3

CINTD6 pl, 37 yds· opp 37Q3

EASTFG13 pl, 49 yds· own 25Q4

CINTD4 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4

EASTPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 25Q4

CINPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 40Q4

EASTEND1 pl, 1 yds· own 32Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 4:37CINBarry Jackson Jr. 65 Yd pass from Brady Lichtenberg (Carter Brown Kick)13–66
• Q4 6:30EASTPatrick Nations 43 Yd Field Goal 13–59
• Q4 13:39CINBrady Lichtenberg 4 Yd Run (Carter Brown Kick)10–59
• Q3 2:42CINAaron Turner 6 Yd pass from Emory Jones (Carter Brown Kick)10–52
• Q3 8:12EASTPatrick Nations 42 Yd Field Goal 10–45
• Q3 13:21CINCarter Brown 46 Yd Field Goal 7–45
• Q2 0:49CINBraden Smith 48 Yd pass from Emory Jones (Carter Brown Kick)7–42
• Q2 5:08EASTHunter Brown 17 Yd pass from Parker McKinney (Patrick Nations Kick)7–35
• Q2 7:17CINEmory Jones 12 Yd Run (Carter Brown Kick)0–35
• Q2 11:47CINPayten Singletary 1 Yd pass from Emory Jones (Carter Brown Kick)0–28
• Q1 1:41CINEmory Jones 1 Yd Run (Carter Brown Kick)0–21
• Q1 6:52CINDee Wiggins 39 Yd pass from Emory Jones (Carter Brown Kick)0–14
• Q1 11:45CINXzavier Henderson 49 Yd pass from Emory Jones (Carter Brown Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →