#21Corey Kiner

RB·Cincinnati·2024

Corey Kiner is a Featured Back for Cincinnati. Corey's 2024 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 210 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Corey Kiner's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Rushing

1153 Rush yards4 Rush TD204 Carries5.7 Yards/carry

Receiving

15 Receptions105 Rec yards0 Rec TD7.0 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs RB peers

Efficiency0
Volume75
Explosiveness54
Consistency66
Receiving23

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency66th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.10 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.62 EPA/play in Wk 13 vs Kansas State (SP+ 14).

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
Eno Benjamin	Arizona State	2018	316	0.330	4.6	104.3
Donnel Pumphrey	San Diego State	2016	344	0.320	4.2	110.1

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsTowson	W38-20	—	7	51	7.3	0	—	—	—	0.35
2	vsPittsburgh	L27-28	4.9	20	149	7.5	0	2	18	0	0.42
3	@Miami (OH)	W27-16	1.3	21	126	6.0	1	—	—	—	0.23
4	vsHouston	W34-0	-8.2	16	78	4.9	1	1	13	0	-0.02
5	@Texas Tech	L41-44	4.3	3	9	3.0	0	—	—	—	-0.10
7	@UCF	W19-13	2.8	17	83	4.9	0	1	9	0	-0.08
8	vsArizona State	W24-14	9.4	22	102	4.6	0	2	17	0	0.12
9	@Colorado	L23-34	8.1	17	94	5.5	0	4	8	0	0.16
11	vsWest Virginia	L24-31	2.1	25	91	3.6	1	2	18	0	-0.00
12	@Iowa State	L17-34	10.3	18	120	6.7	0	1	4	0	0.35
13	@Kansas State	L15-41	14.1	15	140	9.3	0	2	18	0	0.62
14	vsTCU	L13-20	10.8	23	110	4.8	1	—	—	—	0.17

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

26.4%

Passing plays

3.4%

Rushing plays

49.5%

Standard downs

29.0%

Passing downs

20.4%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.09
Passing downs: 0.50
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.63 / 0.15

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).