Akron vs. Northern Illinois: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
AKRTeam statsNIU
- Q4 3:28NIUJohn Richardson 24 Yd Field Goal 44–12
- Q4 7:07AKRCory Smigel 31 Yd Field Goal 44–9
- Q4 13:07AKRTyson Durant 76 Yd Interception Return (Cory Smigel Kick)41–9
- Q4 14:55AKRClyde Price III 8 Yd Run (Cory Smigel Kick)34–9
- Q3 6:05NIUJohn Richardson 34 Yd Field Goal 27–9
- Q3 10:45AKRAlex Adams 61 Yd pass from Jeff Undercuffler Jr. (Cory Smigel Kick)27–6
- Q2 0:22AKRCory Smigel 31 Yd Field Goal 20–6
- Q2 3:33AKRAlex Adams 4 Yd pass from Jeff Undercuffler Jr. (Cory Smigel Kick)17–6
- Q2 6:26AKRDaniel George 15 Yd pass from Jeff Undercuffler Jr. (Cory Smigel Kick)10–6
- Q2 12:22AKRCory Smigel 33 Yd Field Goal 3–6
- Q1 0:20NIUJohn Richardson 32 Yd Field Goal 0–6
- Q1 6:51NIUJohn Richardson 22 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassJeff Undercuffler Jr. 21/32, 312 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushCam Wiley 24 CAR, 128 YDS
- RecAlex Adams 7 REC, 150 YDS, 2 TD
- PassNevan Cremascoli 14/30, 144 YDS, 2 INT
- RushHarrison Waylee 8 CAR, 27 YDS
- RecFabian McCray 4 REC, 52 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsAKR up 18 entering the 4th quarter. Across 838 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 3:33AKR +24%
Jeff Undercuffler Jr. pass complete to Alex Adams for 4 yds for a TD, (Cory Smigel KICK)
- Q2 6:26AKR +17%
Jeff Undercuffler Jr. pass complete to Daniel George for 15 yds for a TD, (Cory Smigel KICK)
- Q3 10:45AKR +15%
Jeff Undercuffler Jr. pass complete to Alex Adams for 61 yds for a TD, (Cory Smigel KICK)
- Q4 14:55AKR +12%
Clyde Price III run for 8 yds for a TD, (Cory Smigel KICK)
- Q2 0:22AKR +10%
Cory Smigel 31 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 13:04AKR +7%
Noah Gettman punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Cole Tucker at the NoIll 35
FAQ
What was the final score of Akron vs. Northern Illinois?
Akron 44, Northern Illinois 12.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked NIU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| AKR | NIU | |
|---|---|---|
| 512 | Total yards | 261 |
| 312 | Passing yards | 172 |
| 200 | Rushing yards | 89 |
| 29 | First downs | 17 |
| 3-9 | 3rd down | 4-18 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 3-3 |
| 21/32 | Comp/Att | 17/38 |
| 9.8 | Yards per pass | 4.5 |
| 5.4 | Yards per rush | 2.3 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 8-45 | Penalties | 7-80 |
| 30:09 | Possession | 29:51 |
Costliest call
Q1 6:51 NIU field goal on 4th & 4 at AKR 4. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.34 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:28NIUJohn Richardson 24 Yd Field Goal 44–12
- Q4 7:07AKRCory Smigel 31 Yd Field Goal 44–9
- Q4 13:07AKRTyson Durant 76 Yd Interception Return (Cory Smigel Kick)41–9
- Q4 14:55AKRClyde Price III 8 Yd Run (Cory Smigel Kick)34–9
- Q3 6:05NIUJohn Richardson 34 Yd Field Goal 27–9
- Q3 10:45AKRAlex Adams 61 Yd pass from Jeff Undercuffler Jr. (Cory Smigel Kick)27–6
- Q2 0:22AKRCory Smigel 31 Yd Field Goal 20–6
- Q2 3:33AKRAlex Adams 4 Yd pass from Jeff Undercuffler Jr. (Cory Smigel Kick)17–6
- Q2 6:26AKRDaniel George 15 Yd pass from Jeff Undercuffler Jr. (Cory Smigel Kick)10–6
- Q2 12:22AKRCory Smigel 33 Yd Field Goal 3–6
- Q1 0:20NIUJohn Richardson 32 Yd Field Goal 0–6
- Q1 6:51NIUJohn Richardson 22 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NIU Elo 1350, AKR Elo 1004 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects NIU -16.2 (86% to win) — 6.7 points clear of NIU's market line of -9.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2022
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#5 of 108 in 2022 by biggest miss · #62 of 132 in 2022 by longest odds.
The 2022 upset archive →Northern Illinois leads 12–6 · Northern Illinois has won 2 straight · 33% have been one-possession games
| AKR | NIU | |
|---|---|---|
| -14.3 (#111) | CORE overall | -18.0 (#119) |
| -8 / +6 | offense / defense | -3 / +15 |
| 1.70 | points / drive | 1.93 |
| 2.80 | allowed / drive | 2.70 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| +11 | pass over expected | -12 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →