UNLV vs. Vanderbilt: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UNLVTeam statsVAN
- Q4 10:44UNLVChad Magyar 14 Yd Run (Daniel Gutierrez Kick)34–10
- Q4 14:56UNLVDaniel Gutierrez 29 Yd Field Goal 27–10
- Q2 3:39UNLVNoah Bean 5 Yd pass from Kenyon Oblad (Daniel Gutierrez Kick)24–10
- Q2 9:28VANRyley Guay 48 Yd Field Goal 17–10
- Q2 12:05UNLVRandal Grimes 63 Yd pass from Kenyon Oblad (Daniel Gutierrez Kick)17–7
- Q2 14:52UNLVDaniel Gutierrez 44 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q1 5:45UNLVCharles Williams 5 Yd Run (Daniel Gutierrez Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:10VANKe'Shawn Vaughn 4 Yd Run (Ryley Guay Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassKenyon Oblad 11/16, 172 YDS, 2 TD
- RushChad Magyar 22 CAR, 116 YDS, 1 TD
- RecRandal Grimes 3 REC, 76 YDS, 1 TD
- PassRiley Neal 11/25, 104 YDS, 1 INT
- RushKe'Shawn Vaughn 15 CAR, 140 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKe'Shawn Vaughn 1 REC, 53 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUNLV up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 3:39UNLV +25%
Kenyon Oblad pass complete to Noah Bean for 5 yds for a TD, (Daniel Gutierrez KICK) VANDERBILT Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined
- Q2 12:05UNLV +24%
Kenyon Oblad pass complete to Randal Grimes for 63 yds for a TD, (Daniel Gutierrez KICK)
- Q1 5:45UNLV +13%
Charles Williams run for 5 yds for a TD, (Daniel Gutierrez KICK)
- Q1 12:10VAN +11%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 4 yds for a TD, (Ryley Guay KICK)
- Q3 7:25UNLV +8%
Chad Magyar run for no gain to the Vandy 45
- Q2 9:28VAN +8%
Ryley Guay 48 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of UNLV vs. Vanderbilt?
UNLV 34, Vanderbilt 10.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked VAN, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UNLV | VAN | |
|---|---|---|
| 378 | Total yards | 306 |
| 172 | Passing yards | 140 |
| 206 | Rushing yards | 166 |
| 21 | First downs | 12 |
| 5-13 | 3rd down | 6-15 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 0-4 |
| 11/16 | Comp/Att | 16/41 |
| 10.8 | Yards per pass | 3.4 |
| 3.9 | Yards per rush | 7.5 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 3-25 | Penalties | 3-38 |
| 37:27 | Possession | 22:33 |
Costliest call
Q3 10:49 VAN punt on 4th & 13 at UNLV 35. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 1.07 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 10:44UNLVChad Magyar 14 Yd Run (Daniel Gutierrez Kick)34–10
- Q4 14:56UNLVDaniel Gutierrez 29 Yd Field Goal 27–10
- Q2 3:39UNLVNoah Bean 5 Yd pass from Kenyon Oblad (Daniel Gutierrez Kick)24–10
- Q2 9:28VANRyley Guay 48 Yd Field Goal 17–10
- Q2 12:05UNLVRandal Grimes 63 Yd pass from Kenyon Oblad (Daniel Gutierrez Kick)17–7
- Q2 14:52UNLVDaniel Gutierrez 44 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q1 5:45UNLVCharles Williams 5 Yd Run (Daniel Gutierrez Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:10VANKe'Shawn Vaughn 4 Yd Run (Ryley Guay Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (VAN Elo 1378, UNLV Elo 1155 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects VAN -11.3 (78% to win) — 4.2 points clear of UNLV's market line of -15.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2019
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#5 of 105 in 2019 by biggest miss · #16 of 124 in 2019 by longest odds.
The 2019 upset archive →| UNLV | VAN | |
|---|---|---|
| -17.3 (#116) | CORE overall | -18.7 (#120) |
| -9 / +8 | offense / defense | -9 / +10 |
| 1.62 | points / drive | 0.95 |
| 2.51 | allowed / drive | 2.81 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 36% |
| -2 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →