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South Florida

South Florida Bulls

American Athletic·2-0·
Compare
Elo
1679#28
SP+
-3.1#76
FPI
-2.3
AP
NR
Nextvs Delaware State · Wk 3
Talent #52 (703.8)Recruiting class #9013% production returning

Roster · 113 players

FR 33SO 26JR 26SR 28
#PlayerPosClHtWt
3Michael Van Buren Jr.QBJR6'0"195
10KJ CooperQBSR6'5"225
16Jayden BradfordQBSO6'0"195
17Luke KromenhoekQBSO6'4"220
2Jason Collins Jr.RBJR5'9"190
5D.J. CrowtherRBSR5'11"215
15Alvon IsaacRBSO5'9"190
22Chase GarnettRBFR5'9"205
24Tray KinkleRBSO5'11"200
25Jayson FranklinRBFR5'11"205
30Jeremiah JohnsonRBSO5'11"214
32Connor MathewsRBFR5'8"205
0Cameron SeldonWRSR6'1"215
1Bryson RodgersWRJR6'2"192
4Arhmad BranchWRJR6'0"185
6Mudia ReubenWRSR6'2"210
7Jaron GloverWRSR6'1"208
9Armani WinfieldWRSR6'2"200
12Jaden AlexisWRSR6'0"200
14Arkese ParksWRSO6'2"175
18Kenny OdomWRSR5'10"178
19JeyQuan SmithWRJR5'10"190
27Jayden DavisWRJR5'10"185
80Joshua PorterWRJR6'0"193
82Gabe LegrandWRFR6'3"195
84Dmari RobertsWRFR6'3"169
8Wyatt SullivanTESR6'4"245
47Evan DanglerTESR6'3"245
81Tayte CrableTEFR6'5"235
85Kade CatonTESO6'5"250
87Luke ClyburnTESR6'7"255
88Brandon KubayTEFR6'3"242
89Ryley ZaluskyTEJR6'4"235
54Braden CarterOLSO6'6"295
55James JenkinsOLJR6'5"305
58TJ LawrenceOLSO6'5"305
59Devin DavisOLSR6'3"310
60Khalil CollinsOLFR6'1"305
61Julius TateOLSO6'3"305
65Jaylin AcevedoOLSO6'4"310
66Teriyan MormanOLSO6'5"355
67Thomas ShraderOLSR6'5"312
70Gerrick Gordon Jr.OLFR6'4"295
71Kahari FinleyOLSR6'5"310
72Cash HudsonOLSR6'3"300
73Caleb HarrisOLFR6'4"280
74Jordan HarrisonOLFR6'2"300
76Colin BellomyOLFR6'7"284
77Michael WootenOLSR6'5"325
78Caleb CookOLSR6'3"315
79Ethan GreenOLSR6'7"322
1C.J. HicksDESR6'3"240
4Michael Williams IIDESR6'3"260
14Eli JonesDEFR6'3"255
18Levi SmileyDESO6'4"260
19Peter RamilDEFR6'5"250
49Harrysson NgassaDESO6'4"210
90Terrell JonesDESR6'5"270
56Terry Simmons Jr.DLJR6'2"325
95Iverson Garcia-PonceDLFR6'2"305
99Jahari GrantDLJR6'2"310
11Asani RedwoodDTSR6'3"300
28Ryan JenkinsDTJR6'4"275
77Major DillardDTSR6'2"330
93Richard Scott IIIDTSO6'4"270
96Sager QuinnDTFR6'1"290
98Marcus WilliamsDTFR6'2"305
0Grayson HowardLBJR6'4"240
6Rodney HillLBJR5'10"225
7Sam RobinsonLBSO6'3"225
10Shamar MeikleLBJR6'3"235
25Zavier HamiltonLBSO6'2"230
30Lorenzo BarnesLBFR6'3"210
32Demetrius Geathers Jr.LBFR6'3"225
33Ashton MosleyLBSO6'3"245
36DeAngelo BowdenLBFR6'0"220
44Dennis King IIILBFR6'2"225
45MarShon OxleyLBSR6'1"227
52Christian SmithLBFR6'3"232
53Gavin LeachLBSO6'2"225
54Michael HarrisLBJR6'0"223
55Greg OttenLBJR6'1"220
94Brooks Williams Jr.LBFR6'6"225
3Za'Quan BryanCBJR5'10"190
8Amarion FortenberryCBJR5'10"188
16Teddy FosterCBJR6'0"188
17Masiyah LimehouseCBFR6'1"188
22Ja'Kyri WatsonCBFR5'10"165
29Deylen PlattCBSO6'3"185
31Jair MurphyCBJR6'0"203
34Keyshaun BirksCBFR6'1"180
35Herlin Perry Jr.CBFR5'11"180
39Daron JeanCBSO5'10"185
5Ayden JacksonDBSR5'11"190
12Jabari SmithDBSO5'11"185
15Tayvion BeasleyDBSR5'10"185
41George Brown IVDBSO5'10"183
2Tavin WardSSR6'1"197
9Israel BoyceSJR6'0"195
13Malcolm ZiglarSJR6'3"205
20A'mon Lane-GanusSSO5'10"190
21Victor ZidorSSR6'2"200
23Cedrick Hawkins Jr.SJR6'0"192
24Amari JonesSFR6'0"180
26CJ Cresser Jr.SFR6'0"197
27Jermichael GillisSFR6'1"178
38Derrick Nichols IIISFR5'11"165
7Nico GramaticaPKJR5'8"165
10Gaston GramaticaPKFR5'10"190
37Lawson ThornPKJR6'2"200
39Luke GoaterPFR6'2"210
48Turner McLaughlinLSSO6'1"225
49Easton BonnettLSSO5'11"190

Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank

Points / game
23.5
scoring offense
Points allowed
16.5
scoring defense
Differential
+7.0
per game
Offense
Total yards / game
288.5#125
Yards / play
5.2#113
Passing yards / game
169.5#112
Rushing yards / game
119.0#110
First downs / game
17.5#108
3rd down %
45.8%#52
4th down %
100.0%#1
Time of possession
27:12#112
Defense
Yards allowed / game
364.0#93
Yards / play allowed
5.3#85
Pass yards allowed / game
214.5#85
Rush yards allowed / game
149.5#101
3rd down % allowed
32.1%#50
Sacks
2#105
Tackles for loss
11#62
Turnovers & Discipline
Turnover margin
+4#11
Takeaways
4#22
Giveaways
0#1
Penalties / game
3.5#11
Penalty yards / game
22.5#2

Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.

Scouting Report · 2026 projection

South Florida is in year 1 under Brian Hartline. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 15th at staying out of the backfield. The way in is 110th at keeping everything in front of them.

South Florida has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.

Projected strengths

  • Offensegetting stopped at the line
    #15
    projected
  • Defensegetting stopped at the line
    #26
    projected
  • Offensehitting chunk plays
    #29
    projected

Projected soft spots

  • Defensehitting chunk plays
    #110
    projected

Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.

2026 Season Projection

model win prob · 9 to play
8.3 – 2.7
projected final record (now 2–0)
Exp. wins left
6.3
of 9 games
Bowl odds
98%
reach 6 wins
Best odds
90%
vs Kent State
Toughest
48%
vs UTSA

How the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 9 games left

Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.

234567891011
final winstallest bar = 28% chance
Likeliest finish 8-3 (28%)Bowl eligible 98% · marked on the axis at 6

Player Value

EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).

Unit Value — Total EPA
WRBryson Rodgers, Cameron Seldon +2
+18.9 EPA
RBD.J. Crowther, Jason Collins Jr.
+1.6 EPA
QBLuke Kromenhoek
+0.4 EPA
TEWyatt Sullivan, Luke Clyburn
-2.1 EPA

Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.

Estimated NIL Market Value
ESTIMATED
RBD.J. Crowther
~$167K
EPA +2.50.119/play21 snaps
RBJason Collins Jr.
~$145K
EPA -0.9-0.035/play26 snaps

Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.

The Five Factors

ranked vs. FBS · bar = better
Efficiency (PPA)
Off0.1426th#103
Def0.1540th#83
Explosiveness
Off1.007th#129
Def0.9399th#3
Field position
Off67.423rd#107
Def75.520th#111
Finishing (pts/opp)
Off4.7069th#44
Def4.2516th#116
Turnovers
Won 4Lost 0
Margin +4

Opponent-adjusted efficiency

EPA/play vs. schedule
Offense
—
Defense
—
Off · pass
0.3147th#73
Off · rush
0.0734th#91

Pass vs. rush (PPA)

Rushing
Off0.0731st#96
Def0.0253rd#65
Passing
Off0.3148th#72
Def0.3228th#100

Trenches & disruption

Line yards (off)
2.63#116
2nd-level / open-field
1.10 / 0.45
Power / stuff (off)
85.7% / 22.6%
Havoc — total (def)
13.6%#113
Havoc — front 7 / DB
10.0% / 3.6%

Standard vs. passing downs

Pro
Std downs
Off0.11
Def0.16
Pass downs
Off0.21
Def0.11

PPA on each down type (off vs. def).

Opponent-adjusted by down

Pro
1st2nd3rd
Offense0.16#48-0.13#1230.43#89
Defense0.05#970.16#750.17#33

Elo Trajectory

Florida InternationalFinal
Elo rating 1682 → 1682+0 over season

Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams

Plot these →
worst in FBSbest

Efficiency

  • Offense EPA/play-0.067th
  • Defense EPA/play allowed0.1144th
  • Offense success rate43%45th
  • Defense success rate allowed38%48th

Downs

  • Offense success — standard downs56%70th
  • Offense success — passing downs23%20th
  • Defense success allowed — standard downs48%33rd
  • Defense success allowed — passing downs21%64th

Explosiveness

  • Offense explosiveness0.651st
  • Defense explosiveness allowed1.163rd
  • Offense explosiveness — standard downs0.431st
  • Offense explosiveness — passing downs1.520th

Trenches

  • Offense line yards2.212th
  • Defense line yards allowed2.561st
  • Offense highlight yards0.0812th
  • Defense highlight yards allowed0.3864th
  • Offense power success0.8063rd
  • Defense power success allowed0.5079th
  • Offense stuff rate0.2417th
  • Defense stuff rate0.2574th

Third down

  • Third down conversion38%36th
  • Third down distance faced8.213th
  • Third down conversion allowed35%53rd
  • Third down distance forced7.247th

Halves

  • Net success rate — first half0.1354th
  • Net success rate — second half-0.0727th

Drives

  • Points per drive2.155th
  • Points per drive allowed1.176th
  • Average starting field position4197th
  • Opponent starting field position2390th
  • Available yards gained46%43rd
  • Available yards allowed42%68th
  • Scoring opportunities per drive100%99th
  • Scoring opportunities allowed33%99th
  • Points per scoring opportunity2.133rd
  • Points allowed per opportunity3.334th
  • Three-and-out rate22%59th
  • Three-and-outs forced11%23rd

Roster

  • Returning usage16%16th
  • Returning EPA55.031st
  • Team talent composite70463rd
  • Recruiting class rank90.035th
  • Recruiting class points18035th

Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.

Intelligence Report

⚡

Offensive DNA

Pass-dominant offense — below average EPA/play nationally
EPA/play
+0.141#103 · below avg
Pass EPA/play
+0.313#72
Rush EPA/play
+0.070#96
Explosiveness
1.004#129
Pts/opportunity
4.70#44
Success rate
47.4%

Pass efficiency edge: 0.244 EPA/play

🛡

Defensive Identity

EPA/play allowed
+0.146#83 · average
Havoc rate (total)
13.6%#113
Front-7 havoc
10.0%
DB havoc
3.6%
Big play rate allowed
0.934#3
Success rate allowed
44.3%

Disruption comes primarily from the front seven.

📊

Season Signature

Points per game
23.5
Points allowed/game
16.5
Scoring margin/game
+7.0
Turnover margin
+4won 4 · lost 0
Production returning
13%
Talent rank (247)
#52

2-0 record through 2 games.

Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th

OFFENSE26thEXPLOSIVENESS7thFINISHING69thFIELD POS23thDEFENSE40thHAVOC18th50th100th
Offense
26th
Explosiveness
7th
Finishing
69th
Field Pos
23th
Defense
40th
Havoc
18th

Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.

CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed

Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.

Overall
+2.6
#62
Offense
-2.3
#89
Defense
-4.9
#44
Full CORE ratings →

What a possession is worth · 9 drives

MeasureOffenseDefense
Points per drive2.111.11
Starting field positionown 41.4own 22.7
Available yards45.8%42.2%
Scoring opportunities100.0%33.3%
Points per opportunity2.113.33
Three-and-out rate22.2%11.1%
Every team’s drive efficiency →

Play-calling identity

Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.

Pass rate
33.9%
Expected, given the spots
43.4%
Over expected
-9.4
Fourth down vs peers
-11
Fourth down vs the model
-33
All play-calling tendencies →

National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play

Each dot = one FBS team. South Florida is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.

ELITEDEF. FORTRESSOFF. POWERHOUSEREBUILDING-0.100.00+0.10+0.20+0.30-0.050.00+0.10+0.20Offensive EPA/play← worsebetter →Defensive EPA allowed/play← worsebetter →

Similar Programs

Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to South Florida in 2026

by EPA/play distance
KentuckySP+ +8.5
Off EPA/play +0.155Def EPA/play +0.178Elo 1476
Match
98%
New Mexico StateSP+ -15.0
Off EPA/play +0.177Def EPA/play +0.159Elo 1259
Match
98%
Boston CollegeSP+ -7.4
Off EPA/play +0.102Def EPA/play +0.148Elo 1379
Match
98%
San Diego StateSP+ +3.1
Off EPA/play +0.110Def EPA/play +0.119Elo 1518
Match
98%
MinnesotaSP+ +9.6
Off EPA/play +0.130Def EPA/play +0.191Elo 1510
Match
97%
Michigan StateSP+ +1.0
Off EPA/play +0.141Def EPA/play +0.192Elo 1468
Match
97%

Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.

Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team

2015: +11.4, #31 of 1282016: +9.9, #30 of 1282017: +11.0, #28 of 1302018: -11.8, #102 of 1302019: -8.6, #96 of 1302020: -13.7, #103 of 1242021: -15.0, #106 of 1302022: -16.6, #116 of 1312023: -7.8, #94 of 1332024: -6.2, #88 of 1342025: +16.2, #25 of 1362026: +2.6, #62 of 138
20152026
Now +2.6 · #62 of 138Best +16.2 in 2025Worst -16.6 in 2022

Program History

recent seasons
YearOverallConfWin %xWLuck
20262-01-0
100%
1.4+0.6
20259-46-2
69%
9.1-0.1
20247-64-4
54%
6.8+0.2
20237-64-4
54%
6.8+0.2
20221-110-8
8%
3.4-2.4
20212-101-7
17%
3.3-1.3
20201-80-7
11%
1.8-0.8
20194-82-6
33%
5.1-1.1
20187-63-5
54%
5.3+1.7
201710-26-2
83%
10.1-0.1

xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).

3.8%of 50,000 simulated 2026 seasons end with them in the field

1-0 so far, projected to finish 8.2-4.0. Wins the American Athletic in 7.6%.

If they finish with…

90%
0 losses
32%
1 loss
1.0%
2 losses
0%
3 losses
0%
4 losses

Their chance of making it at each final loss count. Better than even up to 0.

Win out and it is 90%. One bid goes to the best champion outside the four power leagues, so running the table only enters them into that argument.

down 0.7 points since preseason — won 19-9 over Florida International against an expected margin of +15, so −5.2 against the number.

  • At 1 loss they are 32% where the average American Athletic team is 52%.
  • The American Athletic takes 0.34 bids in an average season.
  • One bid goes to the best champion outside the P4. They take it in 3.7% of seasons, having won their league in 88% of those.

South Florida’s own turning points

Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.

  • wk11vs Memphis7.7
  • wk6at UTSA7.6
  • wk2at Army7.0
  • wk10at East Carolina6.4
  • wk13vs Tulane5.7
  • wk12at Florida Atlantic5.3

Who to root for

Games South Florida is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.

  • wk3Oklahoma over New Mexico1.3
  • wk4Illinois over Ohio State1.0
  • wk5Utah State over Boise State0.9
  • wk9Troy over James Madison0.8
  • wk5Marshall over James Madison0.7
  • wk13Coastal Carolina over James Madison0.7
The full playoff picture →

American Athletic

0-0 in league play, projected 4.5-3.56 of 14 by title odds
7.6%
Wins the American Athletic
16%
Reaches the title game

The American Athletic sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 33% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.

  • wk11Memphis at South Florida13.4
  • wk6South Florida at UTSA12.8
  • wk2South Florida at Army11.5
  • wk10South Florida at East Carolina11.1

Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole American Athletic race →

If not the playoff, then

90%
Bowl eligible
76%
Placed in a bowl
3.8%
In the playoff
20%
Season over in November

South Florida is 1-0 and needs 5 more wins from 11 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 10% of seasons they get there and still go nowhere: there are more eligible teams than seats.

  • Gasparilla Bowl20%
  • Military Bowl12%
  • Fenway Bowl10%
  • Armed Forces Bowl8.5%
  • Birmingham Bowl7.5%
  • First Responder Bowl6.5%

Every bowl, and how each one picks →

Recruiting Pipelines

since 2010

Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 8 have sent South Florida a player since 2010 — 26 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of South Florida's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.

High schoolSignedDrafted
Miami CentralFL80
ColumbiaFL40
Miami Carol CityFL30
West OrangeFL30
HarrisonGA20
NortheastPA20
Oak RidgeFL20
VanguardFL20
All 170 high-school pipelines →
✓/✗ = whether our pregame model picked the winner. Win % & projections from the Gridpex model. Data: CollegeFootballData.