South Florida vs. Bowling Green Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where South Florida gets at Bowling Green: 31st at throwing it, against a unit 94th at defending the pass. Bowling Green projects no clear way in against South Florida. South Florida is also 29th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 92nd.
How
USFattacks
BGSU
- 1
Throw it
throwing it · projected
USF#31 of 138BGSU#94 of 138 - 2
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
USF#29 of 138BGSU#92 of 138 - 3
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · projected
USF#42 of 138BGSU#104 of 138
The two teams
South Florida
South Florida is in year 1 under Brian Hartline. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 15th at staying out of the backfield. The way in is 110th at keeping everything in front of them.
South Florida has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#15projected
- Defensegetting stopped at the line#26projected
- Offensehitting chunk plays#29projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#110projected
Bowling Green
Bowling Green is in year 2 under Eddie George. The strengths are defensive, led by 13th at stuffing runs at the line. The way in is 134th at throwing it, and they are 132nd at moving the ball on the ground.
Bowling Green has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected strengths
- Defensegetting stopped at the line#13projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensethrowing it#134projected
- Offensemoving the ball on the ground#132projected
- Offensefirst and second down#132projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BGSU Elo 1217, USF Elo 1682 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BGSU +18.9 (12% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
USF106th134thBGSUBGSU96th85thUSFThrough the air
USF109th72ndBGSUBGSU53rd83rdUSFOn the ground
USF105th131stBGSUBGSU115th101stUSFStaying on the field
USF56th6thBGSUBGSU53rd59thUSFTaking care of it
USF1st88thBGSUBGSU68th14thUSF
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| USF | BGSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +2.6 (#62) | CORE overall | -12.7 (#122) |
| -2 / -5 | offense / defense | -11 / +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win South Florida vs. Bowling Green?
Gridpex's model favors South Florida with a 88% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for South Florida vs. Bowling Green?
The model projects South Florida by 18.9.
What time is South Florida vs. Bowling Green and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Doyt L. Perry Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →