Kent State vs. South Florida Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Kent State gets at South Florida: 12th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 110th at keeping everything in front of them. Where South Florida gets at Kent State: 39th at turning trips inside the 40 into points, against a unit 134th at holding teams to field goals. South Florida is also 31st at throwing it, against a unit 121st.
How
KENTattacks
USF
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
KENT#12 of 138USF#110 of 138
HowUSFattacksKENT
- 1
Finish drives in the red zone
turning trips inside the 40 into points · projected
USF#39 of 138KENT#134 of 138 - 2
Throw it
throwing it · projected
USF#31 of 138KENT#121 of 138 - 3
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · projected
USF#42 of 138KENT#130 of 138
The two teams
Kent State
Kent State is in year 2 under Mark Carney. The strengths are offensive, led by 12th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 134th at holding teams to field goals, and they are 133rd at running it.
Kent State has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#12projected
Projected soft spots
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#134projected
- Offenserunning it#133projected
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss#131projected
South Florida
South Florida is in year 1 under Brian Hartline. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 15th at staying out of the backfield. The way in is 110th at keeping everything in front of them.
South Florida has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#15projected
- Defensegetting stopped at the line#26projected
- Offensehitting chunk plays#29projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#110projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USF Elo 1682, KENT Elo 1056 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USF -19.9 (90% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
KENT105th85thUSFUSF106th121stKENTThrough the air
KENT111th83rdUSFUSF109th104thKENTOn the ground
KENT81st101stUSFUSF105th111thKENTStaying on the field
KENT47th59thUSFUSF56th70thKENTTaking care of it
KENT118th14thUSFUSF1st53rdKENT
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| KENT | USF | |
|---|---|---|
| -23.2 (#137) | CORE overall | +2.6 (#62) |
| -8 / +15 | offense / defense | -2 / -5 |
| 0.00 | points / drive | 2.11 |
| 6.22 | allowed / drive | 1.11 |
| 33% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| -3 | pass over expected | -9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Kent State vs. South Florida?
Gridpex's model favors South Florida with a 90% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Kent State vs. South Florida?
The model projects South Florida by 19.9.
What time is Kent State vs. South Florida and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Raymond James Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →