Tulane vs. South Florida Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where South Florida gets at Tulane: 15th at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 94th at stuffing runs at the line. Tulane projects no clear way in against South Florida. South Florida is also 36th on first and second down, against a unit 98th.
How
USFattacks
TULN
- 1
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected
USF#15 of 138TULN#94 of 138 - 2
Win first and second down
first and second down · projected
USF#36 of 138TULN#98 of 138 - 3
Lean on the run
moving the ball on the ground · projected
USF#37 of 138TULN#90 of 138
The two teams
Tulane
Tulane runs it: Will Hall's offenses have been run-leaning across 4 seasons. The strengths are defensive, led by 23rd at keeping everything in front of them. The way in is 116th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−1.5%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −27.2% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Tulane has played 1 game against a genuinely tough slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensehitting chunk plays#23projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays#116projected
South Florida
South Florida is in year 1 under Brian Hartline. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 15th at staying out of the backfield. The way in is 110th at keeping everything in front of them.
South Florida has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#15projected
- Defensegetting stopped at the line#26projected
- Offensehitting chunk plays#29projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#110projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USF Elo 1682, TULN Elo 1529 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USF -10 (73% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
TULN118th85thUSFUSF106th67thTULNThrough the air
TULN91st83rdUSFUSF109th31stTULNOn the ground
TULN129th101stUSFUSF105th130thTULNStaying on the field
TULN126th59thUSFUSF56th103rdTULNTaking care of it
TULN31st14thUSFUSF1st88thTULN
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| TULN | USF | |
|---|---|---|
| -1.1 (#74) | CORE overall | +2.6 (#62) |
| -6 / -5 | offense / defense | -2 / -5 |
| 0.25 | points / drive | 2.11 |
| 1.42 | allowed / drive | 1.11 |
| 42% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| -4 | pass over expected | -9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Tulane vs. South Florida?
Gridpex's model favors South Florida with a 73% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Tulane vs. South Florida?
The model projects South Florida by 10.0.
What time is Tulane vs. South Florida and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Raymond James Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →