South Florida vs. Florida Atlantic Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where South Florida gets at Florida Atlantic: 15th at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 125th at stuffing runs at the line. Where Florida Atlantic gets at South Florida: 4th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 110th at keeping everything in front of them. South Florida is also 43rd at running it, against a unit 134th.
How
USFattacks
FAU
- 1
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected
USF#15 of 138FAU#125 of 138 - 2
Run it
running it · projected
USF#43 of 138FAU#134 of 138 - 3
Win first and second down
first and second down · projected
USF#36 of 138FAU#126 of 138
HowFAUattacksUSF
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
FAU#4 of 138USF#110 of 138
The two teams
South Florida
South Florida is in year 1 under Brian Hartline. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 15th at staying out of the backfield. The way in is 110th at keeping everything in front of them.
South Florida has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#15projected
- Defensegetting stopped at the line#26projected
- Offensehitting chunk plays#29projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#110projected
Florida Atlantic
Florida Atlantic is in year 2 under Zach Kittley. The strengths are offensive, led by 4th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 134th at defending the run, and they are 126th on early downs defensively.
Florida Atlantic has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#4projected
Projected soft spots
- Defenserunning it#134projected
- Defensefirst and second down#126projected
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#126projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FAU Elo 1189, USF Elo 1682 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FAU +2 (45% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
USF106th137thFAUFAU123rd85thUSFThrough the air
USF109th133rdFAUFAU42nd83rdUSFOn the ground
USF105th134thFAUFAU103rd101stUSFStaying on the field
USF56th131stFAUFAU35th59thUSFTaking care of it
USF1st88thFAUFAU95th14thUSF
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| USF | FAU | |
|---|---|---|
| +2.6 (#62) | CORE overall | -12.1 (#119) |
| -2 / -5 | offense / defense | -2 / +10 |
| 2.11 | points / drive | 2.10 |
| 1.11 | allowed / drive | 6.00 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| -9 | pass over expected | +10 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win South Florida vs. Florida Atlantic?
Gridpex's model favors South Florida with a 55% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for South Florida vs. Florida Atlantic?
The model projects South Florida by 2.0.
What time is South Florida vs. Florida Atlantic and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at FAU Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →