Temple vs. South Florida Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where South Florida gets at Temple: 24th at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 131st at stuffing runs at the line. Temple projects no clear way in against South Florida. South Florida is also 37th at throwing it, against a unit 121st.
How
USFattacks
TEM
- 1
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected
USF#24 of 138TEM#131 of 138 - 2
Throw it
throwing it · projected
USF#37 of 138TEM#121 of 138 - 3
Win first and second down
first and second down · projected
USF#44 of 138TEM#125 of 138
The two teams
Temple
Temple is in year 2 under K.C. Keeler. The way in is 132nd at holding the line of scrimmage, and they are 130th at shutting down the ground game.
Temple has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Defensethe push the line gets#132projected
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground#130projected
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#128projected
South Florida
South Florida is in year 1 under Brian Hartline. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 24th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 118th at keeping everything in front of them.
South Florida has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#24projected
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#24projected
- Defensegetting stopped at the line#26projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#118projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USF Elo 1676, TEM Elo 1323 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USF -10.9 (75% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
TEM92nd84thUSFUSF113th88thTEMThrough the air
TEM129th83rdUSFUSF112th100thTEMOn the ground
TEM41st101stUSFUSF110th46thTEMStaying on the field
TEM127th50thUSFUSF52nd122ndTEMTaking care of it
TEM48th22ndUSFUSF1st46thTEM
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesTemple leads 6–4 · 20% have been one-possession games
| TEM | USF | |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 (#82) | CORE overall | +5.3 (#51) |
| -3 / +0 | offense / defense | +3 / -3 |
| 1.25 | points / drive | 2.77 |
| 3.38 | allowed / drive | 2.00 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 18% |
| -6 | pass over expected | -5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
FAQ
Who will win Temple vs. South Florida?
Gridpex's model favors South Florida with a 75% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Temple vs. South Florida?
The model projects South Florida by 10.9.
What time is Temple vs. South Florida and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Raymond James Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →