Raymond James StadiumConference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
USF 1774
MEM 1540
Projected spread
USF -8.8
incl. home edge
Model pick
USF
74% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
74%
USF (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (USF Elo 1774, MEM Elo 1540) plus home-field advantage. That projects USF -8.8 (74% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelMEM 26% · USF 74%
Pick: USF
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
MEM2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedUSF
Offense
0.26
PPA / play
0.3145%
Success rate
46%1.33
Key matchups · Pro
- MEM rush offense (0.30 PPA) vs. USF rush defense (0.02 allowed) — edge MEM.
- USF rush offense (0.18 PPA) vs. MEM rush defense (0.04 allowed) — edge USF.
- USF pass offense (0.48 PPA) vs. MEM pass defense (0.37 allowed) — edge USF.
FAQ
Who will win Memphis vs. South Florida?
Gridpex's model favors South Florida with a 74% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Memphis vs. South Florida?
The model projects South Florida by 8.8.
What time is Memphis vs. South Florida and what channel is it on?
Fri, Nov 13, 1:00 AM, at Raymond James Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this South Florida at 74% to win, projecting South Florida by 8.8.