Memphis vs. South Florida Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Memphis gets at South Florida: 31st at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 110th at keeping everything in front of them. Where South Florida gets at Memphis: 29th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 105th at keeping everything in front of them. South Florida is also 31st at throwing it, against a unit 104th.
How
MEMattacks
USF
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
MEM#31 of 138USF#110 of 138
HowUSFattacksMEM
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
USF#29 of 138MEM#105 of 138 - 2
Throw it
throwing it · projected
USF#31 of 138MEM#104 of 138 - 3
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · projected
USF#42 of 138MEM#97 of 138
The two teams
Memphis
Memphis is in year 1 under Charles Huff, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 20th at running it. The way in is 105th at keeping everything in front of them, and they are 104th at staying on schedule through the air.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−1.8%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −37.6% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Memphis has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offenserunning it#20projected
- Offensehitting chunk plays#31projected
- Offensethe push the line gets#31projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#105projected
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#104projected
- Defensethrowing it#104projected
South Florida
South Florida is in year 1 under Brian Hartline. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 15th at staying out of the backfield. The way in is 110th at keeping everything in front of them.
South Florida has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#15projected
- Defensegetting stopped at the line#26projected
- Offensehitting chunk plays#29projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#110projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USF Elo 1682, MEM Elo 1529 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USF -5.4 (63% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
MEM20th85thUSFUSF106th119thMEMThrough the air
MEM89th83rdUSFUSF109th127thMEMOn the ground
MEM19th101stUSFUSF105th89thMEMStaying on the field
MEM81st59thUSFUSF56th57thMEMTaking care of it
MEM95th14thUSFUSF1st14thMEM
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesMemphis leads 10–4 · Memphis has won 5 straight · 50% have been one-possession games
| MEM | USF | |
|---|---|---|
| +10.4 (#36) | CORE overall | +2.6 (#62) |
| +9 / -1 | offense / defense | -2 / -5 |
| 3.00 | points / drive | 2.11 |
| 1.88 | allowed / drive | 1.11 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| -7 | pass over expected | -9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Memphis vs. South Florida?
Gridpex's model favors South Florida with a 63% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Memphis vs. South Florida?
The model projects South Florida by 5.4.
What time is Memphis vs. South Florida and what channel is it on?
Thu, Nov 12, 8:00 PM ET, at Raymond James Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →