Raymond James StadiumConference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
USF 1774
UAB 1184
Projected spread
USF -28.1
incl. home edge
Model pick
USF
98% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
98%
USF (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (USF Elo 1774, UAB Elo 1184) plus home-field advantage. That projects USF -28.1 (98% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelUAB 2% · USF 98%
Pick: USF
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Season stats — 2025
UAB2025 season · national rank shownUSF
404.349th
Total yards / game
487.83rd5.857th
Yards / play
7.0Key matchups · Pro
- UAB rush offense (0.17 PPA) vs. USF rush defense (0.02 allowed) — edge UAB.
- UAB pass offense (0.27 PPA) vs. USF pass defense (0.17 allowed) — edge UAB.
- USF pass offense (0.48 PPA) vs. UAB pass defense (0.52 allowed) — edge UAB.
FAQ
Who will win UAB vs. South Florida?
Gridpex's model favors South Florida with a 98% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for UAB vs. South Florida?
The model projects South Florida by 28.1.
What time is UAB vs. South Florida and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Raymond James Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this South Florida at 98% to win, projecting South Florida by 28.1.