vs Georgia · Wk 3Win prob 11%Model +19.0Schedule & Results
SEC Standings
Standings →
Team Leaders
KJ JacksonPassing406 yds · 3 TD · 2 INT
Braylen RussellRushing62 yds · 1 TD · 2.8 avg
Chris MarshallReceiving12 rec · 142 yds · 0 TD
Bradley ShawTackles12 tackles · 1 TFL · 0 sacks
Latest on Arkansas
All news →Arkansas's defense holds everywhere except over the top
Avery Howard was the best player on the field
Tennessee outduels Arkansas in a 65-point shootout, 34-31
Roster · 119 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | AJ Hill | QB | SO | 6'4" | 232 | Warner Robins, GA |
| 7 | KJ Jackson | QB | JR | 6'4" | 225 | Montgomery, AL |
| 10 | Cade Trotter | QB | JR | 6'1" | 189 | Dallas, TX |
| 14 | Hank Hendrix | QB | FR | 6'3" | 190 | Fayetteville, AR |
| 16 | Braeden Fuller | QB | SR | 6'3" | 221 | Floresville, TX |
| 0 | Braylen Russell | RB | JR | 6'1" | 227 | Benton, AR |
| 5 | Sutton Smith | RB | SR | 5'9" | 196 | Marietta, GA |
| 21 | Jasper Parker | RB | SO | 6'0" | 209 | Gretna, LA |
| 22 | TJ Hodges | RB | FR | 6'0" | 189 | Bryant, AR |
| 23 | Kevin Young | RB | FR | 5'11" | 218 | Forrest City, AR |
| 24 | Mario Robinson | RB | SR | 6'0" | 210 | Memphis, TN |
| 25 | Markeylin Batton | RB | SO | 5'10" | 181 | Atlanta, TX |
| 27 | Cam Settles | RB | SO | 5'11" | 209 | Little Rock, AR |
| 1 | Courtney Crutchfield | WR | JR | 6'2" | 187 | Pine Bluff, AR |
| 3 | CJ Brown | WR | JR | 6'1" | 195 | Bentonville, AR |
| 4 | Ismael Cisse | WR | SR | 6'0" | 198 | Denver, CO |
| 6 | Chris Marshall | WR | SR | 6'3" | 213 | Missouri City, TX |
| 8 | Donovan Faupel | WR | SR | 6'1" | 201 | Riverside, CA |
| 9 | Jamari Hawkins | WR | SR | 5'10" | 188 | Mobile, AL |
| 11 | Monte Harrison | WR | JR | 6'3" | 222 | Lee's Summit, MO |
| 13 | Jelani Watkins | WR | JR | 5'11" | 163 | Laplace, LA |
| 18 | Jude Hall | WR | FR | 6'5" | 200 | Greenville, SC |
| 19 | Antonio Jordan | WR | SO | 6'6" | 228 | Warren, AR |
| 80 | Dequane Prevo | WR | FR | 5'10" | 176 | Texarkana, TX |
| 81 | Dai'shaun Thomas | WR | JR | 5'10" | 174 | Houston, TX |
| 82 | Ben Pupplo | WR | SR | 6'2" | 187 | Yakima, WA |
| 86 | Maurice Gleaton Jr. | WR | SO | 5'10" | 170 | Atlanta, GA |
| 87 | Cory Henderson Jr. | WR | SR | 6'0" | 186 | North Little Rock, AR |
| 88 | Blair Irvin III | WR | FR | 6'0" | 195 | Bentonville, AR |
| 32 | Matt Adcock | TE | SR | 6'3" | 258 | Raleigh, MS |
| 35 | Hutson Hendrix | TE | SO | 5'9" | 237 | Boerne, TX |
| 47 | Maddox Lassiter | TE | SR | 6'3" | 248 | Warren, AR |
| 49 | Braxton Scriber | TE | SO | 6'1" | 250 | Lafayette, LA |
| 83 | Jaden Platt | TE | JR | 6'5" | 255 | Haslet, TX |
| 84 | Breylen Gilbert | TE | SO | 6'3" | 235 | Fairburn, GA |
| 85 | Ty Lockwood | TE | SR | 6'4" | 246 | Thompsons Station, TN |
| 89 | Gavin Garretson | TE | SO | 6'7" | 256 | Chico, CA |
| 50 | Kobe Branham | OL | JR | 6'5" | 336 | Fort Smith, AR |
| 52 | Caden Kitler | OL | SR | 6'3" | 303 | The Colony, TX |
| 53 | Kash Courtney | OL | SO | 6'4" | 301 | Carthage, TX |
| 54 | Adam Hawkes | OL | JR | 6'6" | 306 | Herriman, UT |
| 55 | Carey Clayton | OL | FR | 6'3" | 282 | Grapevine, TX |
| 56 | Ben Mubenga | OL | FR | 6'5" | 289 | Buford, GA |
| 60 | Jonas Nantze | OL | JR | 6'5" | 289 | Springdale, AR |
| 61 | Kaden Bramlage | OL | FR | 6'5" | 296 | Shawnee, OK |
| 62 | Alex Johnson | OL | JR | 6'3" | 308 | Little Rock, AR |
| 63 | Hugh Smith | OL | FR | 6'5" | 305 | Missouri City, TX |
| 64 | Bryant Williams | OL | SR | 6'7" | 335 | Lake Charles, LA |
| 65 | Aaron Smith | OL | SR | 6'6" | 288 | Conway, AR |
| 66 | Payton Parks-Smith | OL | SR | 6'5" | 305 | Sterlington, LA |
| 67 | Emmanuel Flor | OL | SO | 6'4" | 334 | Brooklyn, NY |
| 70 | Daniel Grein | OL | SO | 6'5" | 324 | Munster, IN |
| 71 | Malachi Breland | OL | SR | 6'5" | 334 | Laurel, MS |
| 72 | Tucker Young | OL | FR | 6'5" | 310 | Hot Springs, AR |
| 73 | Brooks Edmonson | OL | SR | 6'4" | 313 | Bryant, AR |
| 74 | Terence Roberson Jr. | OL | JR | 6'6" | 322 | Warren, AR |
| 75 | Kavion Broussard | OL | JR | 6'6" | 312 | New Iberia, LA |
| 78 | Lucas Possenti | OL | JR | 6'5" | 309 | Aston, PA |
| 79 | Josiah Clemons | OL | SO | 6'7" | 341 | Clinton, MS |
| 0 | Hunter Osborne | DL | SR | 6'4" | 313 | Trussville, AL |
| 9 | Charlie Collins | DL | JR | 6'5" | 233 | Pine Bluff, AR |
| 11 | Jamonta Waller | DL | JR | 6'0" | 237 | Picayune, MS |
| 28 | Trajen Odom | DL | SO | 6'3" | 297 | Inglewood, CA |
| 30 | J'Lynn Allen | DL | JR | 6'7" | 226 | North Little Rock, AR |
| 35 | Steven Soles Jr. | DL | JR | 6'2" | 237 | Powell, TN |
| 40 | Colton Yarbrough | DL | FR | 6'5" | 262 | Caddo, OK |
| 41 | Brian Alston | DL | SR | 6'2" | 247 | Birmingham, AL |
| 43 | Trent Sellers | DL | FR | 6'4" | 269 | Mobile, AL |
| 52 | Donovan Whitten | DL | SR | 6'3" | 252 | Arkadelphia, AR |
| 55 | Antonio Sandel-Bascomb | DL | SR | 6'3" | 315 | Akron, OH |
| 88 | Xadavien Sims | DL | JR | 6'3" | 308 | Durant, OK |
| 90 | Caleb Bell | DL | SO | 6'3" | 284 | Alpharetta, GA |
| 91 | Carlon Jones | DL | JR | 6'2" | 327 | Bay City, TX |
| 92 | David Oke | DL | SR | 6'2" | 298 | Lagos |
| 93 | Keiundre Johnson | DL | SO | 6'3" | 292 | Terrell, TX |
| 94 | Reginald Vaughn | DL | SO | 6'2" | 301 | Brandon, MS |
| 95 | Anthony Kennedy Jr. | DL | FR | 6'3" | 337 | Little Rock, AR |
| 97 | Quincy Rhodes Jr. | DL | SR | 6'6" | 273 | North Little Rock, AR |
| 99 | Danny Beale III | DL | FR | 6'5" | 347 | Vanndale, AR |
| 7 | Bradley Shaw | LB | SO | 6'1" | 229 | Hoover, AL |
| 8 | Phoenix Jackson | LB | SR | 6'0" | 221 | Modesto, CA |
| 10 | Wyatt Simmons | LB | JR | 6'3" | 226 | Searcy, AR |
| 25 | Ja'Quavion Smith | LB | JR | 6'1" | 229 | Wingate, NC |
| 33 | Jakore Smith | LB | FR | 6'0" | 205 | Bryant, AR |
| 42 | Jeremy Evans | LB | SR | 6'1" | 229 | Tenaha, TX |
| 44 | Ben Bogle | LB | SR | 6'1" | 226 | Ponte Vedra, FL |
| 45 | Preston Davis | LB | JR | 5'11" | 223 | Little Rock, AR |
| 48 | Joseph Whitt | LB | JR | 6'0" | 210 | Prosper, TX |
| 1 | Christian Harrison | DB | SR | 6'0" | 202 | Atlanta, GA |
| 2 | Shelton Lewis | DB | SR | 5'11" | 190 | Atlanta, GA |
| 3 | Braydon Lee | DB | JR | 6'1" | 180 | Upper Marlboro, MD |
| 4 | La'khi Roland | DB | JR | 6'2" | 195 | Conley, GA |
| 6 | Khmori House | DB | JR | 6'1" | 202 | Pasadena, CA |
| 13 | Carter Stoutmire | DB | SR | 5'10" | 216 | Plano, TX |
| 14 | Kyeaure Magloire | DB | SR | 6'3" | 210 | Minneola, FL |
| 15 | Nsongbeh Ginyui | DB | SO | 6'2" | 199 | Bakersfield, CA |
| 16 | Jathan Hatch | DB | JR | 6'2" | 196 | Corinth, MS |
| 17 | DJ Hairston Jr. | DB | SO | 6'2" | 176 | Starkville, MS |
| 18 | John Howse IV | DB | SR | 6'1" | 198 | Brentwood, TN |
| 19 | Kyndrick Williams | DB | FR | 6'1" | 188 | Fayetteville, AR |
| 20 | Joker Johnson | DB | SR | 6'0" | 195 | Hammond, LA |
| 21 | Tyler Scott | DB | SR | 6'1" | 202 | Mableton, GA |
| 22 | Tay Lockett | DB | FR | 6'0" | 185 | San Diego, CA |
| 23 | Ian Williams | DB | SO | 5'10" | 198 | Cartersville, GA |
| 24 | Miguel Mitchell | DB | SR | 6'1" | 219 | Oxford, AL |
| 26 | Jalon Copeland | DB | FR | 6'0" | 197 | Valdosta, GA |
| 27 | LaMarcus Hicks II | DB | SO | 6'2" | 190 | Clarksdale, MS |
| 29 | Brandon Ford | DB | FR | 5'11" | 193 | Crowley, TX |
| 31 | Blake Brisker | DB | SO | 5'10" | 184 | Argyle, TX |
| 36 | Jeremiah Williams | DB | SR | 5'10" | 175 | Dallas, TX |
| 38 | Bradley Ume-Ezeoke | DB | FR | 5'10" | 170 | Flower Mound, TX |
| 30 | Max Gilbert | PK | SR | 6'0" | 201 | Memphis, TN |
| 39 | Braeden McAlister | PK | SR | 6'0" | 196 | Indian Trail, NC |
| 46 | Charlie Von Der Meden | PK | JR | 6'0" | 183 | Tomball, TX |
| 34 | Jesse Ehrlich | P | SR | 6'2" | 200 | Melbourne, VIC |
| 37 | Gavin Rush | P | SO | 6'3" | 209 | Franklin, TN |
| 41 | Connor Smith | P | FR | 6'3" | 206 | Clintwood, VA |
| 51 | Adam Johnston | LS | SR | 6'0" | 225 | Ripon, CA |
| 59 | Max Schmidly | LS | SR | 6'3" | 217 | Charlotte, NC |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2026 projection
Arkansas throws it: Ryan Silverfield's offenses have been pass-leaning across 6 seasons. The strengths are offensive, led by 10th in the push up front. The way in is 128th at shutting down the ground game, and they are 126th at closing out passing downs.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+5.9%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −19.4% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Arkansas has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected strengths
- Offensethe push the line gets#10projected
- Offensemoving the ball on the ground#13projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#23projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground#128projected
- Defensesurviving second and twelve#126projected
- Defensethrowing it#117projected
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 10 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 2.70#109
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 0.74 / 0.15
- Power / stuff (off)
- 75.0% / 19.7%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 15.7%#68
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 11.1% / 4.6%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | -0.11#119 | 0.07#99 | 0.74#41 |
| Defense | 0.09#104 | 0.58#129 | 0.09#22 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 31 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.1842nd
- Defense EPA/play allowed-0.0777th
- Offense success rate52%72nd
- Defense success rate allowed27%84th
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs56%72nd
- Offense success — passing downs44%75th
- Defense success allowed — standard downs41%57th
- Defense success allowed — passing downs6%97th
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness0.949th
- Defense explosiveness allowed1.177th
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs0.654th
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs1.838th
Trenches
- Offense line yards2.623rd
- Defense line yards allowed1.882nd
- Offense highlight yards0.1313th
- Defense highlight yards allowed0.1677th
- Offense power success0.7853rd
- Defense power success allowed0.0099th
- Offense stuff rate0.2224th
- Defense stuff rate0.2677th
Third down
- Third down conversion63%88th
- Third down distance faced5.583rd
- Third down conversion allowed10%96th
- Third down distance forced10.398th
Halves
- Net success rate — first half0.2775th
- Net success rate — second half0.2682nd
Roster
- Returning usage20%21st
- Returning EPA65.734th
- Team talent composite74574th
- Recruiting class rank46.067th
- Recruiting class points21367th
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Pass efficiency edge: 0.357 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes primarily from the front seven.
Season Signature
1-1 record through 2 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. Arkansas is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Arkansas in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 100% | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 2025 | 2-10 | 0-8 | 17% | 5.2 | -3.2 |
| 2024 | 7-6 | 3-5 | 54% | 7.9 | -0.9 |
| 2023 | 4-8 | 1-7 | 33% | 5.5 | -1.5 |
| 2022 | 7-6 | 3-5 | 54% | 8.5 | -1.5 |
| 2021 | 9-4 | 4-4 | 69% | 9.2 | -0.2 |
| 2020 | 3-7 | 3-7 | 30% | 5.9 | -2.9 |
| 2019 | 2-10 | 0-8 | 17% | 2.3 | -0.3 |
| 2018 | 2-10 | 0-8 | 17% | 3.2 | -1.2 |
| 2017 | 4-8 | 1-7 | 33% | 4.8 | -0.8 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
0-0 so far, projected to finish 4.2-7.8.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count. Better than even up to 3.
up 0.1 points since preseason.
- At 3 losses they are 61% where the average SEC team is 41%.
- The SEC takes 3.83 bids in an average season, and four or more in 65%.
Arkansas’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk12at Texas12.3
- wk13vs LSU9.4
- wk5at Texas A&M8.7
- wk3vs Georgia8.1
- wk6vs Tennessee5.4
- wk11vs South Carolina5.3
Who to root for
Games Arkansas is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk3Cincinnati over Miami (OH)0.7
- wk11Middle Tennessee over Liberty0.7
- wk7Florida State over Miami0.7
- wk7Mississippi State over LSU0.6
- wk4Delaware over Virginia0.6
- wk10Toledo over Sacramento State0.6
SEC
0-0 in league play, projected 2.2-6.816 of 16 by title oddsThe SEC sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 48% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk12Arkansas at Texas1.2
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole SEC race →
If not the playoff, then
Arkansas is 1-0 and needs 5 more wins from 11 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 1.9% they go with five wins, as a 5-7 fill-in — which in reality is decided by academic progress rate, not by anything modelled here.
- Texas Bowl3.8%
- Music City Bowl3.5%
- Liberty Bowl3.4%
- Duke's Mayo Bowl2.8%
- Birmingham Bowl2.8%
- Gator Bowl2.2%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 14 have sent Arkansas a player since 2010 — 33 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Arkansas's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.