Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
TA&M 1872
ARK 1571
Projected spread
TA&M -16.4
incl. home edge
Model pick
TA&M
89% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
89%
TA&M (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (TA&M Elo 1872, ARK Elo 1571) plus home-field advantage. That projects TA&M -16.4 (89% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelARK 11% · TA&M 89%
Pick: TA&M
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
ARK2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedTA&M
Offense
0.31
PPA / play
0.2449%
Success rate
46%1.36
Key matchups · Pro
- ARK pass offense (0.37 PPA) vs. TA&M pass defense (0.10 allowed) — edge ARK.
- ARK rush offense (0.30 PPA) vs. TA&M rush defense (0.15 allowed) — edge ARK.
- TA&M pass offense (0.38 PPA) vs. ARK pass defense (0.44 allowed) — edge ARK.
FAQ
Who will win Arkansas vs. Texas A&M?
Gridpex's model favors Texas A&M with a 89% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Arkansas vs. Texas A&M?
The model projects Texas A&M by 16.4.
What time is Arkansas vs. Texas A&M and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Kyle Field.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Texas A&M at 89% to win, projecting Texas A&M by 16.4.