Tulsa vs. Arkansas Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Tulsa gets at Arkansas: 37th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 100th at keeping everything in front of them. Where Arkansas gets at Tulsa: 26th at surviving second and twelve, against a unit 88th at closing out passing downs. Tulsa is also 90th at moving the ball on the ground, against a unit 131st.
How
TLSAattacks
ARK
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
TLSA#37 of 138ARK#100 of 138 - 2
Lean on the run
moving the ball on the ground · projected
TLSA#90 of 138ARK#131 of 138
HowARKattacksTLSA
- 1
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · projected
ARK#26 of 138TLSA#88 of 138 - 2
Lean on the run
moving the ball on the ground · projected
ARK#19 of 138TLSA#80 of 138 - 3
Establish the push up front
the push the line gets · projected
ARK#23 of 138TLSA#83 of 138
The two teams
Tulsa
Tulsa is in year 2 under Tre Lamb. The way in is 126th at staying out of the backfield, and they are 106th at throwing it.
Tulsa has played 2 games against a genuinely tough slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#126projected
- Offensethrowing it#106projected
Arkansas
Arkansas throws it: Ryan Silverfield's offenses have been pass-leaning across 6 seasons. The strengths are offensive, led by 19th at running it. The way in is 131st at shutting down the ground game, and they are 127th at closing out passing downs.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+5.9%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −19.6% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Arkansas has played 2 games against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offenserunning it#19projected
- Offensethe push the line gets#23projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#26projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground#131projected
- Defensesurviving second and twelve#127projected
- Defensethrowing it#120projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ARK Elo 1490, TLSA Elo 1271 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ARK -11.5 (77% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
TLSA93rd98thARKARK128th57thTLSAThrough the air
TLSA108th68thARKARK52nd124thTLSAOn the ground
TLSA52nd42ndARKARK118th43rdTLSAStaying on the field
TLSA135th48thARKARK34th65thTLSATaking care of it
TLSA21st76thARKARK104th9thTLSA
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesArkansas leads 51–16–2 · Arkansas has won 19 straight · 32% have been one-possession games
| TLSA | ARK | |
|---|---|---|
| -3.8 (#84) | CORE overall | -5.0 (#91) |
| -6 / -2 | offense / defense | +3 / +8 |
| 2.29 | points / drive | 1.00 |
| 1.29 | allowed / drive | 4.20 |
| 19% | three-and-outs | 40% |
| +1 | pass over expected | +11 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Tulsa vs. Arkansas?
Gridpex's model favors Arkansas with a 77% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Tulsa vs. Arkansas?
The model projects Arkansas by 11.5.
What time is Tulsa vs. Arkansas and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 26, 8:00 PM ET, at Razorback Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →