vs Fresno State · Wk 3Win prob 8%Model +19.3Schedule & Results
USCUSCL26-42✓Wk 1@
EMUEastern MichiganW27-21✗Wk 2vsCAPOCal PolyW30-20✓Wk 3vsFRESFresno State+19.38%Wk 5@
HAWHawai'i+33.71%Wk 6vs
WYOWyoming+6.831%Wk 7@
UTEPUTEP+12.616%Wk 8@
NEVNevada+20.46%Wk 9vs
UNMNew Mexico+19.49%Wk 10vs
NIUNorthern Illinois+0.349%Wk 11@
AFAir Force+26.23%Wk 12vs
UNLVUNLV+22.36%Wk 13vs
NDSUNorth Dakota State+12.219%Team Leaders
Luke WeaverPassing788 yds · 8 TD · 1 INT
Jabari BatesRushing319 yds · 0 TD · 5.5 avg
Cooper HochReceiving14 rec · 216 yds · 3 TD
Caleb WomackTackles25 tackles · 0 TFL · 0 sacks
Latest on San José State
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Luke Weaver's New Receivers Have One Career Catch Between Them
Roster · 102 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Luke Weaver | QB | SR | 6'3" | 210 | Manteca, CA |
| 5 | Daniel Rolovich | QB | FR | 6'4" | 210 | Novato, CA |
| 8 | Robert McDaniel | QB | FR | 6'2" | 205 | Hughson, CA |
| 14 | Hudson Wyatt | QB | JR | 6'2" | 200 | Ceres, CA |
| 16 | CJ Lee | QB | SO | 6'1" | 165 | Sacramento, CA |
| 6 | Jabari Bates | RB | SR | 5'7" | 180 | Compton, CA |
| 20 | Viliami Teu | RB | JR | 5'10" | 210 | East Palo Alto, CA |
| 21 | Isaiah Carlson | RB | JR | 6'2" | 220 | Seattle, WA |
| 22 | Tyler Jacklich | RB | JR | 6'2" | 220 | Modesto, CA |
| 24 | Sir Autry | RB | FR | 5'10" | 170 | San Diego, CA |
| 26 | Courshawn Hill | RB | FR | 5'10" | 210 | Phoenix, AZ |
| 28 | Aaron Cox Jr. | RB | FR | 5'11" | 205 | Fresno, CA |
| 0 | Jordan Anderson | WR | SO | 5'11" | 170 | Inglewood, CA |
| 1 | Carson Clark | WR | FR | 5'9" | 170 | Los Angeles, CA |
| 2 | Jerry McClure | WR | JR | 6'1" | 195 | Coronado, CA |
| 4 | Dominique McKenzie | WR | SO | 5'11" | 180 | St. George, UT |
| 7 | Tama Amisone | WR | SO | 5'11" | 185 | Kapolei, HI |
| 9 | Jase Nix | WR | FR | 5'9" | 170 | San Marcos, CA |
| 10 | Anthony Ivey | WR | SR | 5'11" | 190 | Lancaster, PA |
| 11 | Malachi Riley | WR | JR | 6'1" | 170 | Moreno Valley, CA |
| 13 | Cooper Hoch | WR | JR | 6'3" | 200 | Costa Mesa, CA |
| 17 | Ryker Ruelas | WR | FR | 6'3" | 195 | Vancouver, WA |
| 18 | Trace Hernandez | WR | SO | 5'10" | 160 | Los Banos, CA |
| 19 | Cody Hall | WR | SR | 5'11" | 180 | Martinez, CA |
| 23 | Devin Olmande | WR | FR | 6'2" | 190 | Oxnard, CA |
| 33 | Parris Vernon Jr. | WR | FR | 5'10" | 160 | San Diego, CA |
| 80 | Jeremiah Fung | WR | FR | 6'3" | 210 | Palo Alto, CA |
| 82 | Braiden Bachich-Dixon | TE | FR | 6'4" | 210 | San Rafael, CA |
| 83 | Kamaehu Kopa-Kaawalauole | TE | JR | 6'4" | 225 | Ewa Beach, HI |
| 84 | Max Friedman | TE | FR | 6'5" | 225 | Merced, CA |
| 85 | Shane Kiley | TE | FR | 6'4" | 215 | San Clemente, CA |
| 88 | Ryan Boultwood | TE | JR | 6'3" | 230 | Upland, CA |
| 54 | Daniel Moleni | OL | SR | 6'2" | 290 | Sandy, UT |
| 55 | Greg Shade | OL | SO | 6'3" | 290 | Laguna Hills, CA |
| 56 | Simeon Afalava | OL | SR | 6'3" | 285 | Moreno Valley, CA |
| 62 | Tyler Chen | OL | JR | 6'2" | 280 | Rancho Cucamonga, CA |
| 63 | Brian Tapu | OL | FR | 6'5" | 315 | South Auckland |
| 64 | Nathan Balestrieri | OL | JR | 6'1" | 300 | Walnut Creek, CA |
| 65 | Johnny Notarianni | OL | FR | 6'3" | 280 | Hesperia, CA |
| 66 | Kamuela Wilhelm | OL | FR | 6'6" | 290 | Kailua, HI |
| 67 | Keenan Parks | OL | FR | 6'4" | 230 | Loveland, CO |
| 68 | Mitchell Brown | OL | SO | 6'3" | 270 | San Jose, CA |
| 70 | Ikiansio Tupou | OL | SO | 6'6" | 280 | Palo Alto, CA |
| 72 | Lavaka Taukeiaho | OL | SR | 6'2" | 320 | South Jordan, UT |
| 74 | Mitchell Jones | OL | SO | 6'3" | 280 | Fullerton, CA |
| 75 | Joseph Harbert | OL | SR | 6'3" | 290 | San Francisco, CA |
| 76 | Manuel Serna | OL | SO | 6'5" | 295 | Pittsburg, CA |
| 77 | Daniel Tuliau | OL | FR | 6'3" | 305 | Long Beach, CA |
| 78 | David Perez | OL | SO | 6'2" | 290 | Downey, CA |
| 41 | Bronx Letuligasenoa | DL | FR | 6'3" | 260 | Oceanside, CA |
| 42 | Ian Shewell | DL | SR | 6'3" | 280 | Gilbert, AZ |
| 45 | Jeremiah Tuiileila | DL | FR | 6'3" | 255 | Sacramento, CA |
| 48 | Dejon Roney | DL | SR | 6'1" | 295 | Rancho Cucamonga, CA |
| 50 | Star Taimani | DL | SO | 6'3" | 270 | Antioch, CA |
| 51 | Solomone Langi | DL | SR | 6'0" | 295 | Provo, UT |
| 57 | Justin Stearns | DL | SR | 6'2" | 250 | San Diego, CA |
| 89 | Etu Finau | DL | SR | 6'4" | 245 | Oakland, CA |
| 90 | Jayland McGlothen | DL | JR | 6'2" | 280 | Las Vegas, NV |
| 91 | Auma Jennings | DL | FR | 6'0" | 310 | Long Beach, CA |
| 92 | Noa Siaosi | DL | JR | 6'2" | 270 | Vacaville, CA |
| 94 | Russell Devany | DL | FR | 6'0" | 235 | Clovis, CA |
| 95 | Colton Thomas | DL | FR | 6'1" | 270 | Carlsbad, CA |
| 99 | Nate Lewis | DL | SR | 6'5" | 260 | Carmichael, CA |
| 3 | Naseri Danielson | LB | JR | 6'0" | 220 | Stockton, CA |
| 4 | Dylan Lee | LB | JR | 6'1" | 220 | French Camp, CA |
| 6 | Ethan Powell | LB | SR | 6'2" | 230 | San Bernardino, CA |
| 7 | Aizik Mahuka | LB | JR | 6'3" | 225 | Mililani, HI |
| 11 | Champ Kapanui | LB | FR | 6'1" | 215 | Henderson, NV |
| 15 | Skylar Tiatia | LB | FR | 6'1" | 230 | Brisbane, CA |
| 16 | Luke Richey | LB | SO | 6'3" | 225 | Morgan Hill, CA |
| 19 | Cayden Woolwine | LB | SO | 6'1" | 210 | San Marcos, CA |
| 24 | Malakai Hoeft | LB | SR | 6'2" | 220 | Belmont, CA |
| 25 | Zane Carter | LB | JR | 6'4" | 220 | Ventura, CA |
| 26 | Viliami Lotoaniu | LB | FR | 6'2" | 230 | Antioch, CA |
| 40 | Blake Tabaracci | LB | SO | 6'1" | 215 | Park City, UT |
| 53 | Brady Van Bennekum | LB | JR | 6'2" | 215 | Santa Clarita, CA |
| 56 | Sirr Bible | LB | FR | 6'2" | 240 | Long Beach, CA |
| 97 | John Norwood | LB | SR | 6'3" | 220 | Milpitas, CA |
| 0 | Isaiah Buxton | CB | SO | 6'0" | 170 | San Diego, CA |
| 5 | Kejuan Bullard Jr. | CB | SR | 6'1" | 200 | Watts, CA |
| 8 | Runye Norton | CB | SR | 5'10" | 170 | Jacksonville, FL |
| 10 | Greco Carrillo | CB | SO | 5'9" | 170 | Sacramento, CA |
| 12 | Francois Jones Jr. | CB | JR | 6'0" | 190 | Venice, CA |
| 14 | Jayden Robertson | CB | JR | 5'11" | 170 | Las Vegas, NV |
| 22 | Jonathan Watts | CB | SO | 6'3" | 185 | Union City, CA |
| 28 | Cole Gholar | CB | FR | 5'10" | 185 | Vallejo, CA |
| 32 | Caleb Womack | CB | SR | 5'10" | 180 | Santa Cruz, CA |
| 1 | Brian Dukes Jr. | S | SR | 6'3" | 215 | Spring Valley, CA |
| 2 | Maliki Crawford | S | JR | 6'4" | 190 | Oxnard, CA |
| 13 | Pierce Walker | S | SO | 5'10" | 190 | Keizer, OR |
| 21 | Charles Cox III | S | SR | 6'0" | 190 | Concord, CA |
| 23 | Nassir Pitters | S | JR | 6'1" | 205 | Vallejo, CA |
| 27 | Jackson Barton | S | SO | 5'11" | 175 | Phoenix, AZ |
| 31 | Hunter Nowell | S | JR | 6'1" | 200 | Huntington Beach, CA |
| 39 | Tuli Tagovailoa-Amosa | S | SO | 5'10" | 200 | Ewa Beach, HI |
| 29 | Joey Fernandez | PK | JR | 5'11" | 170 | Hollister, CA |
| 36 | Trajan Sinatra | PK | JR | 5'11" | 190 | San Jose, CA |
| 99 | Mathias Brown | PK | JR | 6'0" | 170 | Fullerton, CA |
| 49 | Trent Carrizosa | P | SR | 6'4" | 235 | San Jose, CA |
| 30 | Jaelen Nichols | LS | JR | 5'11" | 200 | Modesto, CA |
| 44 | Dylan Aguilera | LS | SR | 5'10" | 210 | Elkridge, MD |
| 46 | Sam Cowart | LS | SO | 6'1" | 225 | Redwood City, CA |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 3 games in
San José State runs it: Ken Niumatalolo's offenses have been heavily run-leaning across 10 seasons. The strengths are defensive, led by 6th at keeping everything in front of them. The way in is 137th at stuffing runs at the line, and they are 134th at shutting down the ground game.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+3.3%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −17.6% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
San José State has played 3 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 32% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Defensehitting chunk plays0.99#6 of 138
Soft spots
- Defensegetting stopped at the line12.7%#137 of 138
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground53%#134 of 138
- Defensefirst and second down55%#133 of 138
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 10 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 3.18#55
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 1.36 / 0.62
- Power / stuff (off)
- 71.4% / 19.4%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 13.3%#116
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 6.0% / 7.3%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 0.04#87 | 0.22#69 | 0.51#72 |
| Defense | -0.03#76 | 0.09#61 | 0.47#87 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.1741st
- Defense EPA/play allowed0.1830th
- Offense success rate39%26th
- Defense success rate allowed48%18th
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs44%31st
- Offense success — passing downs30%36th
- Defense success allowed — standard downs55%10th
- Defense success allowed — passing downs25%55th
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness1.478th
- Defense explosiveness allowed0.9985th
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs1.274th
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs1.945th
Trenches
- Offense line yards2.936th
- Defense line yards allowed2.939th
- Offense highlight yards0.5830th
- Defense highlight yards allowed0.8940th
- Offense power success0.3312th
- Defense power success allowed0.9524th
- Offense stuff rate0.2223rd
- Defense stuff rate0.1320th
Third down
- Third down conversion37%30th
- Third down distance faced7.917th
- Third down conversion allowed41%36th
- Third down distance forced5.611th
Halves
- Net success rate — first half-0.219th
- Net success rate — second half0.0137th
Drives
- Points per drive2.460th
- Points per drive allowed2.438th
- Average starting field position2955th
- Opponent starting field position2853rd
- Available yards gained44%35th
- Available yards allowed49%46th
- Scoring opportunities per drive83%55th
- Scoring opportunities allowed83%44th
- Points per scoring opportunity2.957th
- Points allowed per opportunity2.944th
- Three-and-out rate30%40th
- Three-and-outs forced30%62nd
Roster
- Returning usage14%13th
- Returning EPA11.25th
- Team talent composite56920th
- Recruiting class rank1297th
- Recruiting class points1597th
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Pass efficiency edge: 0.407 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes primarily from the secondary.
Season Signature
2-1 record through 3 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
The season, week by week · 2026
A season-long average is taken over a period during which the team changed. This is the same numbers as a trajectory, so a mid-season turn is visible instead of averaged away.
Line is the season-to-date average — the number the rest of this page reports. Bars are the individual weeks that moved it.
Line is the season-to-date average — the number the rest of this page reports. Bars are the individual weeks that moved it.
Line is the season-to-date average — the number the rest of this page reports. Bars are the individual weeks that moved it.
Line is the season-to-date average — the number the rest of this page reports. Bars are the individual weeks that moved it.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
What a possession is worth · 23 drives
Play-calling identity
Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.
- Pass rate
- 53.0%
- Expected, given the spots
- 50.9%
- Over expected
- +2.1
- Fourth down vs peers
- -4
- Fourth down vs the model
- -25
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. San José State is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to San José State in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 50% | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 2025 | 3-9 | 2-6 | 25% | 4.7 | -1.7 |
| 2024 | 7-6 | 3-4 | 54% | 6.3 | +0.7 |
| 2023 | 7-6 | 6-2 | 54% | 7.1 | -0.1 |
| 2022 | 7-5 | 5-3 | 58% | 5.5 | +1.5 |
| 2021 | 5-7 | 3-5 | 42% | 5.3 | -0.3 |
| 2020 | 7-1 | 7-0 | 88% | 5.4 | +1.6 |
| 2019 | 5-7 | 2-6 | 42% | 5.3 | -0.3 |
| 2018 | 1-11 | 1-7 | 8% | 1.7 | -0.7 |
| 2017 | 2-11 | 1-7 | 15% | 2.0 | -0.0 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
1-1 so far, projected to finish 6.8-6.3. Wins the Mountain West in 3.1%.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count.
up 0.1 points since preseason — lost 26-42 to USC against an expected margin of −36, so +27.8 against the number.
- At 2 losses they are 7.9% where the average Mountain West team is 6.6%.
- The Mountain West takes 0.23 bids in an average season.
- One bid goes to the best champion outside the P4. They take it in 0.1% of seasons, having won their league in 95% of those.
San José State’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk12vs UNLV0.5
- wk11at Air Force0.5
- wk9vs New Mexico0.5
- wk8at Nevada0.5
- wk5at Hawai'i0.4
- wk3vs Fresno State0.3
Who to root for
Games San José State is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk4Illinois over Ohio State0.2
- wk2Missouri State over Lindenwood0.1
- wk4Lindenwood over Eastern Michigan0.1
- wk7Nebraska over Oregon0.1
- wk2Arizona State over Texas A&M0.1
- wk10Toledo over Sacramento State0.1
Mountain West
0-0 in league play, projected 4.3-4.76 of 10 by title oddsThe Mountain West sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 35% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk12UNLV at San José State8.1
- wk9New Mexico at San José State7.7
- wk11San José State at Air Force6.5
- wk8San José State at Nevada6.1
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Mountain West race →
If not the playoff, then
San José State is 1-1 and needs 5 more wins from 11 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 7.6% of seasons they get there and still go nowhere: there are more eligible teams than seats.
- Famous Idaho Potato Bowl17%
- Arizona Bowl15%
- Hawai'i Bowl14%
- New Mexico Bowl7.1%
- LA Bowl3.8%
- Cure Bowl3.8%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 9 have sent San José State a player since 2010 — 38 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of San José State's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.