#3Luke Weaver

QB·San José State·2026

Luke Weaver is a Clutch Passer for San José State. Luke's 2026 season ranks in the 35th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 75 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Luke Weaver's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2026 Production

Passing

44/71 Comp/Att550 Pass yards5 Pass TD1 INT62.0% Comp %

Rushing

52 Rush yards1 Rush TD18 Carries2.9 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2026 · vs QB peers

Efficiency35
Volume100
Dual-Threat41
Consistency50
Clutch78

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)35th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.39 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Eastern Michigan (SP+ -16).

NIL Market Tier· 2026

On3 valuation ↗

Star

Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
0	@USC	L26-42	17.7	21/32	234	2	0	94.8	42	1	—
1	@Eastern Michigan	W27-21	-15.6	23/39	316	3	1	59.4	10	0	0.39

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

65.9%

Passing plays

98.6%

Rushing plays

29.3%

Standard downs

61.7%

Passing downs

72.2%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.27
Passing downs: 0.47
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.43 / 0.11

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).