North Dakota State vs. San José State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Keys to this game
the three widest mismatches on the field
- 1
When SJSU throws
EPA per dropback against the secondary that has to cover it
SJSU+0.42EPA/play+0.01
NDSU - 2
SJSU in scoring range
points per trip inside the 40 — the difference between drives and points
SJSU3.52pts/opportunity1.75NDSU - 3
NDSU on short yardage
power success — third and fourth and short, and the goal line
NDSU70%power success93%SJSU
Each line is one unit's season average against the unit it will face. The bar shows how far apart they are relative to the rest of the country — it is a description of the matchup, not a prediction.
Scouting report
2026 · 3 games in, blended with the projection
Where North Dakota State gets at San José State: 41st at keeping a clean pocket, against a unit 134th at generating havoc. San José State projects no clear way in against North Dakota State. North Dakota State is also 55th at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 137th.
HowNDSUattacksSJSU
- 1
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · 26% this season, 2 games
NDSU12.1%#41 of 138SJSU13.3%#134 of 138 - 2
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · 26% this season, 2 games
NDSU15.2%#55 of 138SJSU12.7%#137 of 138 - 3
Win first and second down
first and second down · 26% this season, 2 games
NDSU52%#52 of 138SJSU55%#133 of 138
The two teams
North Dakota State
North Dakota State is in year 1 under Tim Polasek. The strengths are defensive, led by 10th at keeping everything in front of them. The way in is 106th at stuffing runs at the line.
North Dakota State has played 2 games against a genuinely tough slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 26% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Defensehitting chunk plays0.99#10 of 138
Soft spots
- Defensegetting stopped at the line14.6%#106 of 138
San José State
San José State runs it: Ken Niumatalolo's offenses have been heavily run-leaning across 10 seasons. The strengths are defensive, led by 4th at keeping everything in front of them. The way in is 137th at stuffing runs at the line, and they are 134th at generating havoc.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+3.4%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −17.7% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
San José State has played 3 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 32% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Defensehitting chunk plays0.99#4 of 138
Soft spots
- Defensegetting stopped at the line12.7%#137 of 138
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss13.3%#134 of 138
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground53%#133 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SJSU Elo 1413, NDSU Elo 1567 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects SJSU +12.2 (19% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
NDSU89th78thSJSUSJSU69th30thNDSUThrough the air
NDSU86th118thSJSUSJSU49th15thNDSUOn the ground
NDSU75th76thSJSUSJSU72nd58thNDSUStaying on the field
NDSU73rd109thSJSUSJSU104th53rdNDSUTaking care of it
NDSU48th22ndSJSUSJSU75th3rdNDSU
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| NDSU | SJSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +5.5 (#48) | CORE overall | +0.8 (#67) |
| +0 / -5 | offense / defense | -4 / -4 |
| 2.71 | points / drive | 2.39 |
| 1.47 | allowed / drive | 2.44 |
| 24% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| -6 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win North Dakota State vs. San José State?
Gridpex's model favors North Dakota State with a 81% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for North Dakota State vs. San José State?
The model projects North Dakota State by 12.2.
What time is North Dakota State vs. San José State and what channel is it on?
Fri, Nov 27, 3:30 PM ET, at CEFCU Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →