San José State vs. Air Force Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 · 3 games in, blended with the projection
Where San José State gets at Air Force: 55th in the push up front, against a unit 129th at holding the line of scrimmage. Where Air Force gets at San José State: 1st at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 137th at stuffing runs at the line. San José State is also 82nd at keeping a clean pocket, against a unit 136th.
How
SJSUattacks
AF
- 1
Establish the push up front
the push the line gets · 28% this season, 3 games
SJSU3.17#55 of 138AF2.62#129 of 138 - 2
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · 29% this season, 3 games
SJSU13.6%#82 of 138AF14.2%#136 of 138 - 3
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · mostly this season · 3 games
SJSU1.26#76 of 138AF1.55#126 of 138
HowAFattacksSJSU
- 1
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · 21% this season, 2 games
AF7.1%#1 of 138SJSU12.7%#137 of 138 - 2
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · 21% this season, 2 games
AF5.4%#3 of 138SJSU13.3%#134 of 138 - 3
Win first and second down
first and second down · 21% this season, 2 games
AF60%#33 of 138SJSU55%#133 of 138
The two teams
San José State
San José State runs it: Ken Niumatalolo's offenses have been heavily run-leaning across 10 seasons. The strengths are defensive, led by 4th at keeping everything in front of them. The way in is 137th at stuffing runs at the line, and they are 134th at generating havoc.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+3.4%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −17.7% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
San José State has played 3 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 32% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Defensehitting chunk plays0.99#4 of 138
Soft spots
- Defensegetting stopped at the line12.7%#137 of 138
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss13.3%#134 of 138
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground53%#133 of 138
Air Force
Air Force runs it: Troy Calhoun's offenses have been heavily run-leaning across 11 seasons. The strengths are offensive, led by 1st at staying out of the backfield. The way in is 137th at hitting chunk plays, and they are 136th at generating havoc.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+1.2%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −27.8% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Air Force has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 21% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line7.1%#1 of 138
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss5.4%#3 of 138
- Offensethrowing it+0.51#28 of 138
Projected soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays0.99#137 of 138
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss14.2%#136 of 138
- Defensestaying on schedule through the air36%#135 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (AF Elo 1423, SJSU Elo 1413 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects AF -26.2 (97% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
SJSU69th51stAFAF82nd78thSJSUThrough the air
SJSU49th23rdAFAF134th118thSJSUOn the ground
SJSU72nd54thAFAF5th76thSJSUStaying on the field
SJSU104th43rdAFAF30th109thSJSUTaking care of it
SJSU75th46thAFAF21st22ndSJSU
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesAir Force leads 6–3 · 22% have been one-possession games
| SJSU | AF | |
|---|---|---|
| +0.8 (#67) | CORE overall | -4.1 (#85) |
| -4 / -4 | offense / defense | +5 / +9 |
| 2.39 | points / drive | 3.11 |
| 2.44 | allowed / drive | 2.82 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 33% |
| +2 | pass over expected | -37 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win San José State vs. Air Force?
Gridpex's model favors Air Force with a 97% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for San José State vs. Air Force?
The model projects Air Force by 26.2.
What time is San José State vs. Air Force and what channel is it on?
Sat, Nov 14, 7:00 PM ET, at Falcon Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →