San Jose State vs USC Prediction, Picks & Odds — Aug 29, 2026
Maiava is Back, His Receivers Aren't: USC's Opener Doubles as an Audition
USC brings back the Big Ten's leading passer, a No. 1 recruiting class and new faces nearly everywhere else; San José State brings a four-way quarterback derby and the one unit that can keep the Coliseum opener honest — its ground game
won 56-28. The rematch opens the 2026 season with the winner barely in doubt and nearly everything else unsettled. USC returns the Big Ten's leading passer and all five of his linemen, but not the receivers who caught his throws or the tacklers who anchored its defense. San José State returns almost its entire ground game and almost none of its passing attack, starting with the passer.
The gap is structural more than personal. Last season's body of work (9-4 and 35.8 points a game against 3-9 and 32.5 allowed) accounts for about 16 points of it, and a roster recruited at a top-17 level against one recruited 109th adds nearly eight more. The quarterback mismatch everyone will notice ranks behind both, and behind the home crowd, at about 3.5 points.
What separates USC and San José State
Last season's body of worklast year's power rating, regressed toward the averageUSC +16
Roster talentoverall talent level of the roster — recruiting pedigree plus an independent preseason roster gradeUSC +8
Quarterbackthe projected starter's quality and how settled the job isUSC +3
Each ingredient of our projection and the side it favors — bars toward USC are why it's the pick (home field is counted separately).
A settled senior against a four-man derby
Jayden Maiava withdrew from the NFL Draft to return for his senior season, months after leading the Big Ten with 3,711 passing yards and 24 touchdowns in his first full year as the starter. Lincoln Riley confirmed the job in spring, and Maiava will work behind the same five linemen who protected him last fall: Elijah Paige, Tobias Raymond, Kilian O'Connor, Alani Noa and Justin Tauanuu.
San José State opens fall camp still choosing. Walker Eget, who ran more than a third of the passing game, transferred to Duke, and Ken Niumatalolo is sorting through four candidates: Hawai'i transfer Luke Weaver, who threw for 628 yards and six touchdowns in five games last season, redshirt freshman Robert McDaniel, true freshman Daniel Rolovich and Xavier Ward. Whoever emerges makes his first start for the Spartans in the Coliseum.
Likely starter
Why we project him
GIQ
San José State
Open competition — Luke Weaver leads
Open QB competition for 2026 after 2025 starter Walker Eget transferred to Duke.
76
USC
Jayden Maiava (returning)
Returning starter — highly productive
96
Projected starting quarterbacks (GIQ = our 0–99 player rating)
When USC has the ball: Maiava and the new hands
USC's passing offense graded fourth in the country last season, and the men who caught it are gone: Makai Lemon, Ja'Kobi Lane and tight end Lake McRee took 59 percent of the targets, and all three moved on. Tanook Hines returns after getting more out of his chances than any Trojan receiver; NC State transfer Terrell Anderson arrives off a 39-catch, 629-yard, five-touchdown season; and five-star freshman Mark Bowman (headliner of USC's No. 1-ranked, 22-blue-chip class) is penciled in at tight end, the position the departures emptied. The backfield is steadier: Waymond Jordan, King Miller and Eli Sanders all return from the nation's No. 28 rushing attack.
The resistance is thinner than the rebuild. San José State's pass defense ranked 108th and then lost its best disruptors: Dylan Hampsten (eight sacks) and Vili Taufatofua (four, now at Colorado) accounted for 12 of the team's 18 sacks, and top cover man Michael Dansby took his eight breakups with him. Corner Jalen Bainer (three interceptions) can erase Anderson or Hines but not both; linebacker Jordan Pollard's 108 tackles clean up what leaks through. Expect long, finished drives rather than fireworks: USC was 33rd nationally in big plays but top-10 at turning scoring chances into points.
Unit matchups: who wins each side of the ball
When San José State has the ball— its offense vs USC’s defense
Passing: San José State O #81 vs USC D #36USC · slight edge
Rushing: San José State O #64 vs USC D #88San José State · slight edge
◄ USC defense winsSan José State offense wins ►
When USC has the ball— its offense vs San José State’s defense
Passing: USC O #4 vs San José State D #108USC · big edge
Rushing: USC O #28 vs San José State D #71USC · slight edge
◄ San José State defense winsUSC offense wins ►
Read it by possession: each side shows what happens when that team has the ball — its offense against the other team's defense, unit by unit (national rank in parentheses). Last season's grades, shrunk toward average by how much of each unit's production actually returns. San José State returns 34% of last season's passing production and 76% of its rushing production. USC returns 62% of last season's passing production and 78% of its rushing production. San José State's projected line: 5 of 5 held over; USC's projected line: 5 of 5 held over.
Player
Last season → now
San José State
Steve Chavez-Soto (RB)
37% of carries → Utah
San José State
Danny Scudero (WR)
32% of targets → Colorado
San José State
Dylan Hampsten (DL)
39 tkl, 8.0 sacks → NFL/graduated
San José State
Michael Dansby (CB)
17 tkl, 1 INT → NFL/graduated
USC
Makai Lemon (WR)
27% of targets → NFL/graduated
USC
Ja'Kobi Lane (WR)
19% of targets → NFL/graduated
USC
Bishop Fitzgerald (S)
51 tkl, 1.0 sacks, 5 INT → NFL/graduated
USC
Eric Gentry (LB)
76 tkl, 3.0 sacks → NFL/graduated
Key departures — the production each side has to replace (and where it went)
When San José State has it: three backs against a remade front
The Spartans' one on-paper edge comes when they run it. Seventy-six percent of last year's rushing production returns behind all five starting linemen: Jabari Bates averaged 7.1 yards a carry in a three-game 2025, Floyd Chalk IV ran for 721 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2024, and Lamar Radcliffe added 340 more, with only Steve Chavez-Soto (448 yards, now at Utah) gone. San José State's line graded in the top 20 percent of the country at the point of attack last season, USC's run front in the bottom 8 percent. And that 88th-ranked front is being remade: Eric Gentry (76 tackles), Bishop Fitzgerald (five interceptions) and Anthony Lucas are gone, Devan Thompkins left for Alabama, and Michigan State transfer Alex VanSumeren mans the nose. Whether that rebuilt interior holds against Bates and Chalk is the real question of the night.
Through the air, the Spartans start over. Danny Scudero (1,297 yards, now at Colorado), Kyri Shoels (Utah) and Leland Smith (UCLA) took 77 percent of the targets with them; the leading returning target is tight end Jackson Canaan at 315 yards, the projected No. 1 receiver is the unproven Malachi Riley, and San Diego State transfer Jerry McClure caught one pass last season. That group meets USC's returning edge tandem of Braylan Shelby (4.5 sacks) and Kameryn Crawford (3.5), reinforced by Penn State transfer Zuriah Fisher, though the secondary behind them, minus Fitzgerald and DeCarlos Nicholson, is a rebuild of its own.
Player
Last season
GIQ
San José State
Jabari Bates (RB)
39% of the carries last year
81
San José State
Floyd Chalk IV (RB)
37% of the carries last year
85
San José State
Lamar Radcliffe (RB)
31% of the carries last year
81
San José State
Malachi Riley (WR)
Projected starter — limited college production
—
San José State
Offensive line (5 starters)
5 held over — Peseti Lapuaho, Sione Nomani, Joseph Harbert, Daniel Moleni, Tyler Chen
—
USC
Waymond Jordan (RB)
42% of the carries last year
87
USC
King Miller (RB)
40% of the carries last year
78
USC
Eli Sanders (RB)
20% of the carries last year
90
USC
Mark Bowman (TE)
Projected starter — 5★ recruit, limited college production
—
USC
Zacharyus Williams (WR)
Projected starter — 3★ recruit, limited college production
—
USC
Offensive line (5 starters)
5 held over — Elijah Paige, Tobias Raymond, Kilian O'Connor, Alani Noa, Justin Tauanuu
—
Returning & projected offensive starters — who's back (incl. the projected offensive line), plus the unproven names penciled in to start (GIQ = our 0–99 player rating)
The realistic range
Eight of ten realistic finishes land between USC by 13 and USC by 49, and the most common single final sits near 38-3; a one-score game shows up about once in 20. Since 2014, 61 underdogs of four touchdowns or more have arrived having just lost both their quarterback and the bulk of their receiving corps — San José State's exact profile. All 61 lost, and barely 8 percent stayed within two touchdowns. The Spartans' route to the forgiving end runs through Bates and Chalk moving chains, the clock moving with them, nothing handed over.
Every way the game could go
0%-38
0%-32
0%-24
0%-18
0%-10
1%-4
3%+4
7%+10
12%+18
17%+24
19%+32
17%+38
12%+46
San José State winsUSC wins
Market: USC −36Projected: USC by 31 (98%)
The range of outcomes for this game. Each bar is how often the final margin lands in that range — the more it leans toward USC, the more likely USC wins.
What each side needs to beat the number
At USC minus 35.5, the number sits five points above the projection of 31 — so the Spartans' side of the checklist is the live one. To cover, USC has to stack the blowout: score on nearly every possession, even money at best for a team that cashed its chances at a top-10 rate; win the turnover battle by two or more, a short-field script that shows up only about a third of the time; and put the game away by halftime, the one item that leans likely. The obstacle is style: long-drive offenses win by low-30s margins, big without being 36-points big.
San José State's list asks less. Shorten the game behind Bates, Chalk and Radcliffe: close to even money. Force the low-scoring version — the combined score projects near 50, a touchdown under the betting total: lean yes. Stay even in turnovers, since a single short field ends the exercise for the Spartans: lean yes, and the most common version of this game has no turnover edge either way. Stealing an extra possession from USC on fourth down or special teams: unlikely. The more achievable checklist belongs to the underdog — USC covers only about one time in four, far likelier to win big than to win by 36.
Keys to the cover
How likely
▸ For USC to cover -35.5
~28% to cover
Score on nearly every possession — a top points-per-chance day, not just big plays
coin-flip-ish
Break the methodical mold — chunk scores, not just long drives
unlikely
Win the turnover battle by 2+ — short fields are the fast path past 35.5
unlikely
Bury the dog early — no slow start that keeps it a one-score game into the third quarter
lean yes
▸ For San José State +35.5
~72% to cover
Milk the clock with the rushing game — turn it into a low-possession rock fight
coin-flip-ish
Force a low-scoring, low-variance game — kill the favorite's extra possessions
lean yes
Win or tie the turnover battle — no gift-wrapped short fields
lean yes
Steal a possession — cash a fourth-down or special-teams play for an extra drive
unlikely
What each side needs to beat the number, and how achievable it is. Edge to San José State +35.5: our projection has the favorite covering only 28% of the time — a methodical favorite that lands 5 points short of the number, with the dog's keep-it-close criteria (clock control, even turnovers) more achievable than the favorite's blowout stack.
Spread
We project USC by 31; the market is wider at 36, so the value is the points with San José State. A preseason caveat, honestly: this early, the market has genuinely better information than any projection built on last season's rosters — returning-production and depth-chart data aren't fully published yet. Our number is on the record; treat the gap as a disagreement to track, not an edge to bet.
Total
No validated lean. We project 50 combined points against a 58 line, but our totals projection doesn't yet have a graded track record, so we don't publish a lean on it.
Betting angle
USC wins this better than 19 times in 20, by about 31 — call it 40-10. The lane gets picked early: Maiava finding Anderson, Hines and Bowman on the opening drives points toward the 45-point version; Spartan backs moving the chains while the derby winner protects the ball points toward four touchdowns rather than five. The film that matters most belongs to USC: with Ohio State and Oregon coming to the Coliseum and a November trip to Indiana ahead, how the remade defense and receiver corps look will mean more than the final score.
Our projection favors USC with a 98% win probability. The projected final score is USC 40–San Jose State 10.
What is the predicted score for San Jose State vs USC?
We project USC 40–San Jose State 10, a combined 50 points.
What is the spread for San Jose State vs USC, and which side does the model like?
The betting line is USC −35.5. Our projection has USC winning by about 31, inside the number — the points are the value side.
Gridpex's desks are model-driven, AI-assisted columns. Every figure is generated from our own data and ratings — not invented. We don't fabricate reporters, quotes, or sources. Published Wed, Aug 26, 2026 · game-engine:deep-preview.
Gridpex's desks are model-driven, AI-assisted columns; every figure is generated from our own data, not invented. Model estimates are for informational and entertainment purposes only — not betting advice. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER. Data: CollegeFootballData.
