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North Carolina

North Carolina Tar Heels

ACC·2-0·
Compare
Elo
1398#91
SP+
5.8#49
FPI
6.3
AP
NR
Next@ Clemson · Wk 3Win prob 9%Model +20.4
Talent #28 (767.9)Recruiting class #1928% production returning

Roster · 110 players

FR 57SO 19JR 22SR 12
#PlayerPosClHtWt
3Travis BurgessQBFR6'4"193
8Miles O'NeillQBSO6'5"220
9Billy Edwards Jr.QBSR6'3"228
10Au'Tori NewkirkQBFR6'3"200
15DJ MazzoneQBSO6'0"175
18Andres Miyares Jr.QBSO6'1"210
0Demon JuneRBSO5'11"215
5Kaleb JacksonRBJR6'0"234
7Benjamin HallRBJR5'11"235
20Crew DavisRBFR5'11"199
23Charleston FrenchRBJR5'9"205
26JoJo TroupeRBFR5'8"200
27Jaylen McGillRBSO5'10"200
47Henry MartelloFBFR6'4"250
1Jordan ShippWRJR6'2"190
2Trech KekahunaWRJR5'10"185
4Mason HumphreyWRSR6'4"215
6Dayton SneedWRJR6'0"196
11Nathan LeacockWRJR6'3"217
14C.J. SadlerWRFR5'9"183
16Zamaurious RobertsonWRFR6'0"167
17Nyqir HeltonWRFR5'11"182
24Jaden JeffersonWRFR5'9"165
81Kymistrii YoungWRFR6'2"192
82Keeyun ChapmanWRFR6'3"209
83Carnell WarrenWRFR6'3"208
86Madrid TuckerWRFR5'10"170
19Jaxxon WarrenTESO6'8"245
45Jelani ThurmanTEJR6'6"250
80Jordan WashingtonTESO6'4"264
84Shamar EasterTEJR6'5"215
85Dream RashadTEFR6'5"222
87Carson SneedTEFR6'6"242
88Deems MayTESR6'2"230
51Peter PesanskyOLSO6'2"290
52Rowan ByrneOLFR6'5"296
54Jonah RodriguezOLJR6'4"294
55Brandon HomadyOLFR6'3"298
56Christo KellyOLSR6'4"305
57Will ConroyOLFR6'2"290
60Cristian AlvarezOLFR6'4"285
65Zion SmithOLFR6'3"320
66Jordan HallOLJR6'8"336
67Dujuan DavisOLFR6'9"380
68Aidan BanfieldOLJR6'3"300
70Byron NelsonOLFR6'3"300
71Jacqawn McRoyOLSO6'8"335
72Eidan BuchananOLSO6'9"330
73J.B. ShabazzOLFR6'5"333
74Nick FiumaraOLFR6'4"297
75Andrew ThreattOLSR6'3"315
77Trey BlueOLFR6'6"330
79Anthony HallOLFR6'3"356
0Isaiah JohnsonDLSR6'2"320
5Donovan Hoilette Jr.DLSR6'4"245
9Melkart Abou JaoudeDLSR6'5"260
11Jaylen HarveyDLSO6'2"246
14Tarvorise BrownDLJR6'7"296
25Joseph MupoyiDLJR6'5"261
29Zavion Griffin-HaynesDLFR6'5"235
56Viliami MoalaDLFR6'2"357
88Vodney ClevelandDLFR6'3"320
89Emmanuel NwaiwuDLFR6'4"250
90Xavier LewisDLSO6'0"250
91Leroy JacksonDLSO6'1"290
92Jimmy-Phrisco Alo-SuliafuDLFR6'3"271
93Trashawn RuffinDLFR6'3"350
94David Jackson IIIDLFR6'0"208
96Nicco MaggioDLFR6'1"290
97Trey GiddensDLFR6'3"275
8Jonathan AgumaduLBSO6'2"220
10Peyton SeelmannLBJR6'1"225
12Calvin ThomasLBFR6'3"207
15Derek McDonaldLBSR6'4"230
26DQ ForkpaLBFR6'1"226
33Tyler HouserLBFR6'2"220
35Ashton BlattLBFR6'3"230
36Jayden Griffin-HaynesLBFR6'2"198
42Jordan AvingerLBFR6'1"221
43Lantz PascalLBFR6'1"225
44Jake BauerLBFR6'1"225
54Timir Hickman-CollinsLBSO6'2"215
95Daniel AndersonLBSO6'1"245
1Greg SmithDBSO6'4"215
2Kaleb CostDBSR5'11"195
3Ade WillieDBSR6'1"190
4Jalon ThompsonDBJR5'11"185
6Tre MillerDBJR5'10"180
7Peyton WatersDBSO6'1"185
16Coleman BrysonDBSR6'2"210
17Jakob WeatherspoonDBFR5'11"165
18Jaiden PattersonDBJR6'1"195
19Reggie Love IIDBJR5'8"175
20Xavier JacksonDBFR6'1"188
21Kenton Dopson IIIDBFR6'0"190
23Khristian Dunbar-HawkinsDBSO5'11"185
24Javion ButtsDBFR6'1"175
27Graham ReintjesDBFR6'1"185
28Jamarrion GordonDBFR5'11"202
30Jaziel HartDBFR5'11"180
31Julian PetersonDBFR6'2"183
32Jermaine AndersonDBFR6'2"195
34David DavisDBFR6'0"191
38Julian BurnsDBFR6'3"194
92Aeron BurrellPKJR6'2"190
97David GreenPKFR5'10"183
91Adam Mccann-GibbsPFR6'0"208
93Jacob HorvathPJR6'1"190
40Roman WazniLSFR6'0"205
48Gannon BurtLSJR6'1"205

Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank

Points / game
25.0
scoring offense
Points allowed
6.5
scoring defense
Differential
+18.5
per game
Offense
Total yards / game
374.5#89
Yards / play
6.8#38
Passing yards / game
249.0#56
Rushing yards / game
125.5#103
First downs / game
21.5#59
3rd down %
40.0%#73
4th down %
100.0%#1
Time of possession
26:37#117
Defense
Yards allowed / game
268.0#42
Yards / play allowed
3.9#21
Pass yards allowed / game
176.5#51
Rush yards allowed / game
91.5#45
3rd down % allowed
46.9%#119
Sacks
7#11
Tackles for loss
10#77
Turnovers & Discipline
Turnover margin
+1#42
Takeaways
3#45
Giveaways
2#49
Penalties / game
4.0#17
Penalty yards / game
30.0#12

Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.

Scouting Report · 2026 projection

North Carolina is in year 2 under Bill Belichick. The way in is 130th at running it, and they are 122nd at hitting chunk plays.

North Carolina has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.

Projected soft spots

  • Offenserunning it
    #130
    projected
  • Offensehitting chunk plays
    #122
    projected
  • Offensefirst and second down
    #117
    projected

Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.

2026 Season Projection

model win prob · 10 to play
3.6 – 8.4
projected final record (now 2–0)
Exp. wins left
1.6
of 10 games
Bowl odds
5%
reach 6 wins
Best odds
41%
vs Syracuse
Toughest
2%
vs Virginia

How the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left

Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.

23456789101112
final winstallest bar = 34% chance
Likeliest finish 3-9 (34%)Bowl eligible 5% · marked on the axis at 6

Player Value

EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).

Unit Value — Total EPA
QBBilly Edwards
+19.1 EPA
RBBenjamin Hall, Jaylen McGill +1
+11.7 EPA
WRTrech Kekahuna, Jordan Shipp +2
+10.7 EPA
TEShamar Easter, Jelani Thurman +1
+10.1 EPA

Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.

Estimated NIL Market Value
ESTIMATED
QBBilly Edwards
~$820K
EPA +19.10.341/play56 snaps

Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.

The Five Factors

ranked vs. FBS · bar = better
Efficiency (PPA)
Off0.3376th#34
Def-0.0585th#21
Explosiveness
Off1.049th#125
Def0.9896th#7
Field position
Off71.265th#49
Def70.570th#42
Finishing (pts/opp)
Off4.3661st#55
Def1.3097th#5
Turnovers
Won 3Lost 2
Margin +1

Opponent-adjusted efficiency

EPA/play vs. schedule
Offense
—
Defense
—
Off · pass
0.4062nd#53
Off · rush
0.2264th#50

Pass vs. rush (PPA)

Rushing
Off0.2264th#51
Def-0.0462nd#53
Passing
Off0.4059th#57
Def-0.0088th#17

Trenches & disruption

Line yards (off)
4.09#7
2nd-level / open-field
1.65 / 0.44
Power / stuff (off)
66.7% / 9.3%
Havoc — total (def)
13.7%#110
Havoc — front 7 / DB
9.4% / 4.3%

Standard vs. passing downs

Pro
Std downs
Off0.24
Def-0.01
Pass downs
Off0.55
Def-0.11

PPA on each down type (off vs. def).

Opponent-adjusted by down

Pro
1st2nd3rd
Offense0.15#500.45#270.57#63
Defense-0.15#380.08#600.27#55

Elo Trajectory

@TCUFinal
Elo rating 1380 → 1395+15 over season

Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams

Plot these →
worst in FBSbest

Efficiency

  • Offense EPA/play0.1126th
  • Defense EPA/play allowed-0.0567th
  • Offense success rate47%53rd
  • Defense success rate allowed33%64th

Downs

  • Offense success — standard downs49%44th
  • Offense success — passing downs41%73rd
  • Defense success allowed — standard downs42%50th
  • Defense success allowed — passing downs19%77th

Explosiveness

  • Offense explosiveness0.925th
  • Defense explosiveness allowed1.250th
  • Offense explosiveness — standard downs0.757th
  • Offense explosiveness — passing downs1.414th

Trenches

  • Offense line yards3.471st
  • Defense line yards allowed2.462nd
  • Offense highlight yards0.049th
  • Defense highlight yards allowed1.135th
  • Offense power success0.007th
  • Defense power success allowed0.8042nd
  • Offense stuff rate0.1555th
  • Defense stuff rate0.1947th

Third down

  • Third down conversion27%15th
  • Third down distance faced7.042nd
  • Third down conversion allowed41%36th
  • Third down distance forced6.940th

Halves

  • Net success rate — first half0.0339th
  • Net success rate — second half0.1972nd

Drives

  • Points per drive1.437th
  • Points per drive allowed0.8982nd
  • Average starting field position2953rd
  • Opponent starting field position3413th
  • Available yards gained47%47th
  • Available yards allowed50%44th
  • Scoring opportunities per drive67%25th
  • Scoring opportunities allowed78%58th
  • Points per scoring opportunity2.235th
  • Points allowed per opportunity1.481st
  • Three-and-out rate22%59th
  • Three-and-outs forced0%9th

Roster

  • Returning usage32%40th
  • Returning EPA46.927th
  • Team talent composite76880th
  • Recruiting class rank19.087th
  • Recruiting class points24887th

Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.

Intelligence Report

⚡

Offensive DNA

Pass-dominant offense performing above the national average
EPA/play
+0.330#34 · above avg
Pass EPA/play
+0.400#57
Rush EPA/play
+0.220#51
Explosiveness
1.038#125
Pts/opportunity
4.36#55
Success rate
55.2%

Pass efficiency edge: 0.180 EPA/play

🛡

Defensive Identity

Disciplined defense suppressing opponents below the national average
EPA/play allowed
-0.045#21 · top 20%
Havoc rate (total)
13.7%#110
Front-7 havoc
9.4%
DB havoc
4.3%
Big play rate allowed
0.983#7
Success rate allowed
37.7%

Disruption comes primarily from the front seven.

📊

Season Signature

25.0 PPG offense, 6.5 allowed — +18.5 margin/game
Points per game
25.0
Points allowed/game
6.5
Scoring margin/game
+18.5
Turnover margin
+1won 3 · lost 2
Production returning
28%
Talent rank (247)
#28

2-0 record through 2 games.

Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th

OFFENSE76thEXPLOSIVENESS9thFINISHING61thFIELD POS65thDEFENSE85thHAVOC20th50th100th
Offense
76th
Explosiveness
9th
Finishing
61th
Field Pos
65th
Defense
85th
Havoc
20th

Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.

CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed

Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.

Overall
+5.5
#50
Offense
-1.4
#73
Defense
-6.9
#30
Full CORE ratings →

What a possession is worth · 9 drives

MeasureOffenseDefense
Points per drive1.440.89
Starting field positionown 28.6own 34.1
Available yards46.7%49.7%
Scoring opportunities66.7%77.8%
Points per opportunity2.171.43
Three-and-out rate22.2%0.0%
Every team’s drive efficiency →

Play-calling identity

Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.

Pass rate
53.7%
Expected, given the spots
42.5%
Over expected
+11.2
Fourth down vs peers
+12
Fourth down vs the model
-25
All play-calling tendencies →

National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play

Each dot = one FBS team. North Carolina is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.

ELITEDEF. FORTRESSOFF. POWERHOUSEREBUILDING-0.100.00+0.10+0.20+0.30-0.050.00+0.10+0.20Offensive EPA/play← worsebetter →Defensive EPA allowed/play← worsebetter →

Similar Programs

Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to North Carolina in 2026

by EPA/play distance
South CarolinaSP+ +16.7
Off EPA/play +0.347Def EPA/play -0.047Elo 1742
Match
99%
MarylandSP+ +9.1
Off EPA/play +0.348Def EPA/play -0.059Elo 1424
Match
99%
Air ForceSP+ +1.1
Off EPA/play +0.315Def EPA/play -0.011Elo 1424
Match
98%
ToledoSP+ -9.4
Off EPA/play +0.360Def EPA/play -0.023Elo 1568
Match
98%
MissouriSP+ +12.9
Off EPA/play +0.319Def EPA/play +0.020Elo 1703
Match
96%
ColoradoSP+ +2.1
Off EPA/play +0.302Def EPA/play +0.032Elo 1406
Match
95%

Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.

Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team

2015: +18.3, #14 of 1282016: +13.1, #21 of 1282017: -6.8, #87 of 1302018: -6.5, #95 of 1302019: +10.6, #29 of 1302020: +18.7, #9 of 1242021: +1.1, #70 of 1302022: +3.5, #57 of 1312023: +5.2, #44 of 1332024: -4.5, #84 of 1342025: -10.5, #97 of 1362026: +5.5, #50 of 138
20152026
Now +5.5 · #50 of 138Best +18.7 in 2020Worst -10.5 in 2025

Program History

recent seasons
YearOverallConfWin %xWLuck
20262-00-0
100%
1.6+0.4
20254-82-6
33%
5.1-1.1
20246-73-5
46%
6.0+0.0
20238-54-4
62%
6.9+1.1
20229-56-3
64%
7.1+1.9
20216-74-6
46%
5.8+0.2
20208-47-3
67%
8.6-0.6
20197-64-4
54%
8.2-1.2
20182-91-7
18%
3.6-1.6
20173-91-7
25%
4.1-1.1

xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).

3.5%of 50,000 simulated 2026 seasons end with them in the field

1-0 so far, projected to finish 6.3-5.7. Top-four bye in 0.5%. Wins the ACC in 1.0%.

If they finish with…

100%
1 loss
68%
2 losses
2.7%
3 losses
0.1%
4 losses

Their chance of making it at each final loss count. Better than even up to 2.

up 0.8 points since preseason — won 15-10 over TCU against an expected margin of −6, so +10.9 against the number.

  • At 2 losses they are 68% where the average ACC team is 44%.
  • The ACC takes 1.54 bids in an average season, and four or more in 0.7%.

North Carolina’s own turning points

Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.

  • wk5vs Notre Dame15.6
  • wk9vs Miami12.8
  • wk6at Pittsburgh8.2
  • wk12at Virginia8.2
  • wk11vs Louisville6.5
  • wk3at Clemson6.4

Who to root for

Games North Carolina is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.

  • wk5Utah State over Boise State0.9
  • wk2Colgate over Central Michigan0.8
  • wk9Navy over Notre Dame0.8
  • wk3Wake Forest over Miami0.8
  • wk4Purdue over Notre Dame0.8
  • wk12SMU over Notre Dame0.8
The full playoff picture →

ACC

0-0 in league play, projected 3.4-4.69 of 17 by title odds
1.0%
Wins the ACC
2.6%
Reaches the title game

The ACC sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 37% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.

  • wk9Miami at North Carolina5.0
  • wk4Central Michigan at Miami3.0
  • wk12North Carolina at Virginia2.7
  • wk6North Carolina at Pittsburgh2.5

Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole ACC race →

If not the playoff, then

64%
Bowl eligible
61%
Placed in a bowl
3.5%
In the playoff
36%
Season over in November

North Carolina is 1-0 and needs 5 more wins from 11 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent.

  • Pinstripe Bowl7.9%
  • Pop-Tarts Bowl7.7%
  • Military Bowl7.6%
  • Sun Bowl6.8%
  • Holiday Bowl5.9%
  • Fenway Bowl5.4%

Every bowl, and how each one picks →

Recruiting Pipelines

since 2010

Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 11 have sent North Carolina a player since 2010 — 23 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of North Carolina's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.

High schoolSignedDrafted
Greater Atlanta Christian SchoolGA30
Mallard CreekNC30
Our Lady of Good CounselMD30
North GwinnettGA21
EpiscopalVA20
NevilleLA20
NorthsideGA20
RainesFL20
All 170 high-school pipelines →
✓/✗ = whether our pregame model picked the winner. Win % & projections from the Gridpex model. Data: CollegeFootballData.